BooneWX

And that’s coming from someone who enjoys making people feel miserable about winter weather odds. Weather twitter has been quite the crap show this week. I love looking ahead at patterns as much as the next enthusiast but it’s not healthy to cancel winter in late December based on models that move storms 3,000 miles every 6 hrs.

really good analysis for those of us wanting some hope as well: https://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1739780789842112635?s=46

And right on que - the happy hour GFS delivers

Oddly enough, I’m torn because I feel like more times than not, a SWE means suppression city for storm tracks. I really think we need to time up the NAO and PNA for one frickin time in our lives. We’ve had a ton of one or the other but not a lot of both in recent years. you may certainly be right though. This side of the globe is almost devoid of cold and we need that to change in a big way to have a chance. It’s alarming when places like Buffalo and Chicago really haven’t even been able to muster up a decent storm and we’re almost to January.

if only it worked this way with winter weather.

Starting to see some local flooding here. Ponds are overflowing, water standing in the road and for the first time since about July, the lake is at full brim.

The sound of steady rain hitting the metal roof is easing the soul tonight. Been battling either the flu or strep for 2 days. Hope yall had a better holiday than I did . Merry Christmas!

I’m just ecstatic we finally have a pattern coming that makes model watching worth it

Lee minimum showing up so now I know we’re all the way back folks!

Yall smell that? Smells like it’s almost slider time.

I’m smelling a southern slider around the corner

I’m cautiously optimistic. One thing that concerns me is the lack of snowpack over the northern states and Canada. We really need a sacrificial storm to bring the goods to that region of the continent.

A dusting of snow on the ground in Caldwell County this morning. Who would’ve thought?! It’s not much but the Christmas cheer is in full swing now.

Flakes have broken containment here in southern Caldwell County as well.

Wind has really kicked up just down the mountain. Skies are pitch black to the west and northwest…I think you’re all in for a nice pre-Christmas thumping.

Not gonna lie. I woke up thinking about the blizzard warnings we would be under if we just had a high to our northwest

I hope this thing does track east. There’s a fine balance in this storm of getting beneficial rainfall and not having destructive winds and multi-day outages. I’m rooting for the 12z evolution even if it sacrifices a bit of rain (we’ll still get very healthy amounts anyways).

As always, enjoyed the blog this morning with my cup of coffee and looking forward to the video!

A 977 in western NC during Dec ranks high on the absurdity chart. If it verifies, the wind from this event would be borderline historic.

And since there’s no snow to speak of to draw attention to it, this is going to catch many off guard.

Verbatim, with wet soils, that’s several hundred thousand without power

I’m intrigued as well. It seems like every major typhoon in the wpac has major downstream effects….. similar to that - could this be the wrench in the atmosphere that dislodges some locked up air downstream? The frigid air in Siberia, northern Mongolia and Japan has been relatively locked up by a monster high in south east Asia after it had previously been on the move from Europe.

The trough is now taking on a negative tilt, so there’s a shot we get some backfilling here shortly

Per obs on the tempest website, it looks like winds have just now shifted to the NW in eastern TN…….Oof