BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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The foothills of western NC have been one of the wettest locations in the United States for the last two years, with nearly every rain storm over performing. Now...with a winter storm on the doorstep, we're finally going to have an under-performer and virtually no qpf LOL.
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I think the most depressing part of this winter has less to do with the lack of physical storms themselves and more to do with the lack of being able to geek out, track storms, losing sleep for model runs, and watching these threads blow up. Such a deflating season, because most of this board disappears until November. I just hate that the odds of tracking something fun are so low at this point.
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I’ll get roasted for saying this - and that’s fine, but I wish we’d get at least a minor drought. WNC is becoming Seattle south. We can’t string together more than 2 dry days a week and when it rains, it rains 2+ inches every time. My yard is muck.
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Tracking fantasy storms is still better than having nothing to watch.
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2/1 still has potential per 12z GFS. The track is way too far inland, but there is a high in the Maine area and a robust storm cutting across the SE. On the bright side, the storm doesn't cut west of the Apps, which is a change of pace already.
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"Hello darkness my old friend."
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It’s wild how imby it seems like it’s rained every week (twice a week most times), for the past year with multiple hydro events and yet the one week we get substantial cold is when we get a break from the moisture. Awesome.
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Last December’s storm dropped 16 inches of snow imby, and I joked with everyone that it was enough snow in one storm to account form two winters. Mother Nature must’ve thought so too
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For many in the central and western part of the state, it’s the best month on average. Biggest snow of my life was a Valentines storm.
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My bet is warmer than average the entire season. 100% chance of verification.
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This is the fastest I’ve seen clouds move over my head in a non-tropical related system. Coupled with the fact that it feels like late April, I’m thinking this will be an entertaining night.
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Any guesses on how soon it’ll be before I have to start mowing again?
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I’d settle for slightly above average temps at this point lol
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It’s not even cold enough for snow IN the mountains
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All hail the FV3
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I’ll take a stab at this one. Growing up in Mount Airy, I always had the same question, because you’d frequently see the same thing modeled for that area. I believe (and someone with a legit background feel free to correct me), the models always try to predict lee side sinking. I’ve found that in these particular systems, coming up from the south, it rarely happens. Usually I just ignore the hole’s.
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Last couple of frames on radar almost seemed as if she was starting to move wnw a bit. Just my eyes, or anyone else notice it? Might just be a wobble.
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West side looks like its getting eroded by dry air.
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I think the weakening is temporary. IR looks significantly better than the previous 8 hrs. Might not become a cat 4 again, but no reason to believe it can’t be a major hurricane at landfall.
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For days I've felt like this storm is going to take an abnormal path. I think we are all trying to apply way too much of the "it usually happens like this" logic for a storm that has been anything but logical to this point.
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Regardless of how people feel about him, I just watched Joe Bastardi's daily update, and he's with the Euro camp of having a landfall between Myrtle and Wilmington with it tracking towards the mountains. He's been spot on so far and was spot on with Gordon, so I'm not sure what to think.
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Absolute nightmare scenario for western N.C. I love weather but there’s zero part of me that wants to lose power for weeks and be in a Houston type of situation with flooding.
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Even then, it probably stays relatively close to the border and rakes all of NC with the worst side of the storm. A lot of lose-lose scenarios taking shape and it's a bit alarming.
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I get a feeling that this storm is going to track towards an eventual landfall in SC and push inland. I don’t think the models are quite nailing down just how strong the high may be.
