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BlunderStorm

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  1. BlunderStorm
    I hope all of yall are having a wonderful Thanksgiving!
  2. BlunderStorm
    The winter storm from February 16-18 2015 named "Octavia" was the most memorable storm for me. I never took a measurement but I would say over 14 inches of snow fell and was then followed by truly arctic cold. Temperatures I believe fell into the negative teens here and then in the following days a couple more notable winter storms followed after. As a result a snowpack lasted here into the first week of March. I'm sure almost all of you recall this but I guess because the event was less impactful as a near miss, you don't reflect on it as much. This and the 2011 Super Outbreak earlier in my childhood are what charged my interest in weather. I would kill for a repeat of this with you guys getting more out of it. I know this is unrelated to the discussion. The ENSO conditions were a nada and the sun was more active but the storm snow totals jax showed reminded me of it because it took a similar track and caused a blockbuster event.
  3. BlunderStorm
    Wow... Those pictures are absolutely breathtaking...
  4. BlunderStorm
    At last after a lot of trial and error I was finally able to get at least one of the images through! I sure hope this is a preview of winter.
  5. BlunderStorm
    About 0.2 inches fell barring any rogue snow showers overnight. The event was a success in my book but it leaves me hungry for something more significant. I'll send an image in the morning.
  6. BlunderStorm
    Currently 34 with rain and snow falling. UPDATE: It has quickly fully transitioned to snow and is 32. UPDATE 2: The ground is cold enough to support snow on the grass measurements will be taken.
  7. BlunderStorm
    When I'm not using my weather station KJFZ is the station I use. Whatever temperature it is add two degrees and more often than not it lines up perfectly.
  8. BlunderStorm
    Radar is starting to get interesting for the NE portion of the forum area but I can't help but shake the feeling the back end of the storm is coming too early for snow. It's just 40 all the way up here so the temperature and has a ways to fall in the eastern valley. I'm hoping you guys in the Tri-Cities see some token flakes.
  9. BlunderStorm
    Check out this webcam in Wytheville. You can see with every shot this morning the trees slump more and more from the ice. https://www.weatherbug.com/weather-camera/?cam=WYTHV
  10. BlunderStorm
    It was 33 at dawn this morning. A really close call that leaves the mountain passes where I'm more concerned in the freezing rain. With the upper air temps I question the snow is Wise but it may be possible. I checked the webcam at UVA Wise and there did not seem to be snow.
  11. BlunderStorm
    The temperature bottomed out at 36 around 8. Now the temperature has risen to 39. Looks like it's going to remain above freezing.
  12. BlunderStorm
    I wonder if this is actually snow west of Nashville as Intellicast is depicting.
  13. BlunderStorm
    It's good to see less frequent posters out today! Currently where I'm situated it's 37 to start the night. I doubt any serious accretion here on the roads but the grass may very likely have a glaze. Here I'm more concerned around mountain passes about 500ft higher than here in areas like Jewell Ridge. Glancing through the modeling one more time I imagine most of us will have a window for a flurry or two after the more significant snowfall ends in west Tennessee as the upper level low slides through. After all the cold, wet, and grey days we've had I'm open to a break in the active weather for a sunny seasonable Thanksgiving. By the last week of November I'll be ready for some more action though.
  14. BlunderStorm
    Status report? A light drizzle has started over here. Don't know the exact temp but it's probably 40ish. EDIT: Just before I posted!
  15. BlunderStorm
    The roads around here can get especially treacherous during inclement weather. Still being in high school I'm not exactly the best driver in the world and my experience driving in snow is limited to once or twice last winter. Needless to say I shouldn't and won't be out on the road and honestly nobody else should tonight up this way. I'm hoping my school calls a 2 hour delay tomorrow. The last thing we need is a bus skidding on an ice rink. I wish you the same in terms of snow and I know it would be more special for you. Anytime I see snow on the radar down in dixie I smile.
  16. BlunderStorm
    I'm now under a Winter Weather Advisory and live just a few miles from the border of Tazewell county currently under a winter storm warning. The RDPS/RGEM is painting an icy picture up here and some of the others aren't far behind. If I do get a glaze of Ice I'll be sure to send pictures but I'm not rooting for it. What I am hoping for is maybe...just maybe a solid hour of light snowfall on the back end of this storm. I'm not very patient with winter.
  17. BlunderStorm
    RGEM and ECMWF fwtw aren't budging with the freezing rain way up in SWVA. All other models go with the typical Tazewell-Marion river valley boundary with the freezing rain. Knowing my micro-climate better than a weather model though the chances are it's going be 34 in a downpour all night thankfully. Anyway I'll shut up... back to the main event of the forum out west!
  18. BlunderStorm
    It's always good news to have the euro on your side for an event. A few days ago when the models were teasing the possibility of snow over here the euro never really supported it at least as I recall. I hope yall get something out of this. I love snow and I can enjoy the novelty of sleet but freezing rain is where I draw the line and am typically not in favor of it. It's wet, yet at the same time freezing ,and all surfaces turn into an ice skating rink. Weather wise it would be interesting though. I have my eye on the back end of the event where cold air wraps around and I have a chance for snow the next evening/night. If the upper layers could just get a little colder maybe it could be sleet or perhaps snow early Thursday morning but I highly doubt it. I did notice the higher pressure north of here on the euro but the center of high pressure is still over New England.
  19. BlunderStorm
    After seeing tonight's run of the euro I am concerned about the possibility of an ice storm in SWVA Wednesday night into Thursday morning. I'm too tired to really delve into it tonight but this may be worth discussion for tomorrow.
  20. BlunderStorm
    I would imagine given enough time the three cities would kind of meld together along with the many towns in the general vicinity of them from Abingdon to Gate City to Jonesborough. Of course with the current rate of development especially further north in Virginia being basically stagnant that is far off.
  21. BlunderStorm
    I had forgot to check yesterday but looking back on my records it reported the temperature at a frigid 16 Sunday morning!
  22. BlunderStorm
    Tonight marks the first flurries of the season. Currently 35F with no accumulation on any surfaces. So it looks like I'll record my first trace! EDIT: Wow, I reached 500 posts!
  23. BlunderStorm
    It's looking like an uphill battle with the "supposed" changeover being during mid-day in a November for the eastern valley. We just need the cold air in place a little quicker and I guess that would imply either a better positioned/stronger high pressure west of us or the system arriving a little later. If we had the cold 6 hours earlier at dawn on Tuesday I would feel a lot better with what the GFS is showing. As for other models for the 0z ICON the cold air simply never reaches our sub-forum. The 0z Canadian presents a similar scenario to the most recent GFS except with maybe more potential for snow in west Tennessee. The 0z FV3 is pretty much in line the GFS and Canadian as well. Will see what the euro brings to the table but I have a sinking feeling it's going to be like the ICON with how it ran 12z as an Apps runner.
  24. BlunderStorm
    Yeah I'd be crushed. With how heavy and wet that snow would be I could see power being knocked out for a lot of folks up this way.
  25. BlunderStorm
    The latest Euro and GFS have peaked my curiosity. In the eastern Tennessee Valley I have my eye on the possibility of the storm around Tuesday taking a Miller A track. If this were to occur and we could somehow get the cold air in place we might have a shot. Also, hope you have a good vacation John!
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