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HKY1894

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Everything posted by HKY1894

  1. HKY1894
    Interested in week leading into New Years. The -NAO means business
  2. HKY1894
    Christmas night snowstorm on happy hour gfs ...........we take
  3. HKY1894
    NAM is lights out along escarpment in NW NC
  4. HKY1894
    Opinions of chasing this to Winchester? I assume maybe Hancock or Hagerstown may be slightly better? Still don’t trust the mesoscale models yet for banding.
  5. HKY1894
    Looking good headed into first couple weeks of January. Think we will have chances to score big. Much improved from last winter
  6. HKY1894
    I want to chase this but it’s gonna be stressful trying to plan ahead to setup near best banding. Will have to make a decision by Tuesday.
  7. HKY1894
    Northern mountains looking good for midweek system. Gut feeling but this has consistently trended better today.
  8. HKY1894
    .........December 09 miller b style?
  9. HKY1894
    12z euro is interesting. Gfs is much different, if something like euro occurs I could see this trending better for climo favored areas in western part of NC. Blocking and hp to the north is classic cad setup
  10. HKY1894
    Thinking about chasing this up at beech, what times does it look to start? Trying to figure out when to get up there
  11. HKY1894
    Snowing lightly in boone starting to accumulate slowy 18z gfs is very interesting for this weekend, shows changeover to heavy snow as upper low moves over
  12. HKY1894
    12z gfs running, out to 108 the energy out west has a different look than last run. This is gonna be a big run for somebody just hope it’s the southeast
  13. HKY1894
    I feel like it’s so hard to predict model bias sometimes. Every storm is unique and models are so dynamic that all storms are modeled slightly different. But a lot of boxes are checkEd on this threat. Great high latitude blocking, 50-50 low to hold HP in position. One issue with euro is moving 50/50 out of the way too quickly. Just need to see euro turn more neutral tilt with the s/w.
  14. HKY1894
    The setup looks nice but expect more trends, worrisome to see euro suppressed but 12z made a step in right direction. The trends have been good today that’s all that can be said at this point.
  15. HKY1894
    This map is classic look for an east coast winter storm. Ridge axis out west could move to the west a little maybe.
  16. HKY1894
    0z gfs shows big storm and it's colder than 18z for Dec 21st-22nd. 500mb pattern is pretty classic for a big dog.
  17. HKY1894
    18z gfs has a really nice setup for 12/21, verbatim it's 35 and rain for the north of 40 crowd but that has the look of a classic miller A snowstorm as modeled which is probably incorrect.
  18. HKY1894
    Originally the euro showed winter storm, the timing of the high pressure was better for weekend wave. Now we have to hope GFS has right idea of keying on the weak s/w before next weekends rainstorm. all a matter of timing precip with optimal CAD config.
  19. HKY1894
    GEFS offers some support for op. CMC has no wave other than the weekend rain storm. Will have to watch trends for a few more model cycles.
  20. HKY1894
    Well I’m at 190% of seasonal average and we’re not even halfway through winter. Euro seasonal and weeklies look epic for rest of winter after this relaxation. Feeling like this might be headed for a top 5 winter for western part of the state. Precipitation hasn’t been an issue all year. Just need another nice Miller A .
  21. HKY1894
    Sorry for imby question, but in your opinion how do you feel about Lenoir/Wilkesboro area? .
  22. HKY1894
    All gonna come down to warm nose. Wouldn’t trust the globals fully. But the euro and FV3 consistency has been impressive .
  23. HKY1894
    Everything still on track, if it plays out like fv3 euro and ukmet outputs it will be one of the greats we all talk about years from now .
  24. HKY1894
    .
  25. HKY1894
    FV3 snow map is unbelievable especially the consistency over this week .
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