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HKY1894

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Everything posted by HKY1894

  1. HKY1894
    If FV3 euro CMC and UK all blow the QPF forecast this badly I’ll be surprised this thing is juiced .
  2. HKY1894
    Slightly looks like CLT has 3 inch qpf probably 2.4+ everywhere else .
  3. HKY1894
    00z FV3 big again
  4. HKY1894
    Canadian is massive hit, especially for mountains and western piedmont
  5. HKY1894
    QPF seems to be on an upward trend since last nights 0z run on many models specfically on FV3 and euro
  6. HKY1894
    mother of god
  7. HKY1894
    Agreed, feel like GSP got nervous from low QPF runs of 12z gfs/nam .
  8. HKY1894
    Yeah way to early to call bust especially northern mountains globals all look absolutely great right now only bad model is nam and it’s not even bad in mountains still drop 14 or more in Boone. More worrisome for Asheville area but if globals are closer to reality even you guys are gonna get hit hard. The NAM past 48 hours has been a total joke in the Midwest with this even so it’s laughable to even consider it right now .
  9. HKY1894
    http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ It's just under gfs like normal its the eval page though so it's FV3
  10. HKY1894
    From the ncep maps for FV3 looks like the northern stream closed low drops decent snow on monday. QPF over 2 inches across most of state storm total
  11. HKY1894
    18z FV3 is another QPF bomb
  12. HKY1894
    QPF looks better on 18z gfs, One positive trend on both NAM and old GFS at 18z
  13. HKY1894
    NAM has been garbage in the Midwest at 60 hour leads for now I think it should be discounted. I believe the warm nose will affect clt but the way it drives it all the way to the escapement basically I’m not buying right now. .
  14. HKY1894
    He said we are taking there snow last night [emoji23] .
  15. HKY1894
    Mean Control run .
  16. HKY1894
    Mean Control run .
  17. HKY1894
    EPS and Euro is locked in boys and girls very similar eps QPF and snowfall mean compared to 00z actually 12z increased slightly .
  18. HKY1894
    Kuchera through 96 .
  19. HKY1894
    Euro appears to be a crush job for western NC more closely matches FV3 UK and CMC for sure .
  20. HKY1894
    .
  21. HKY1894
    The s/w is sharper and more negatively tilted than the FV3 at 72 hours. Just based off of 500mb look QPF shouldn’t be low here. .
  22. HKY1894
    To be fair in terms of QPF the fv3 more closely matches the ukmet and cmc on the 12z data The eps at 0z had 2 inches of QPF all the way into northern foothills. So at this time the consensus is for more QPF than gfs/nam that could change but as of now no trend .
  23. HKY1894
    To be .
  24. HKY1894
    The FV3 is night and day with QPF vs op gfs. Feel like this will be a good test. This year has trended more QPF in our bigger rain events during the fall so it fits the pattern .
  25. HKY1894
    12z FV3 has much more QPF the current gfs. Storm totals nearing 2 inches all the way to VA border more in line with other globals .
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