SnowDawg

Can we lock that one in? Everybody should be happy with it. Crushing snow very far south and extreme high ratio powder in the mtns and foothills. We all need snow, so no use fighting over the bullseye lol

As much as it was fun to think we could pull it off, the 6th storm was always supposed to be the stage setter in the step down process so I'm not going to fret too much about losing it. Should get at least two shots between the 9th and 15th, and in the past we'd be saying suppressed is right where we want them at this range. But we've lost a few storms to suppression during this drought so instead it just feels like it's set in stone already.

Nice change on the following wave. Ideally it gets going quicker in the Gulf to get everyone more involved. But a good signal for now nonetheless.

Had a feeling that would be the outcome when it dug so hard out west.

Could mean it tries to amplify and cut sooner. Let's see how our block does at slamming the door.

Same trend as above but for ice.

3 run trend from the Euro. It's coming south for now at least. If we could just get slower and weaker too, we'd be in business.

Based on the 18z euro I'd say timing is just as big a factor as North/South. The waves aren't tracking all that different but the faster euro has more room to amplify, less time for the CAD to build in, and precip starts during the warmest part of the day instead of overnight/early morning.

Still think a lot of the zr depicted is at worst sleet. During the bulk of the precip warm nose looks to be fairly thin and high up around 725-750 mbar. Below that it is solidly isothermal all the way to the ground.

Although very slightly more amped and north early, it's actually weakening and shearing out faster on approach as the block presses on it. There's not really much room for a big northern trend. I think the Euro is probably fairly close to the northern edge of the forecast envelope as long as the block and 50/50 are locked in.

Fwiw the 12z Euro AI still had the Miller A on the 10th. Albeit, light for most of the board outside of the deep south/coast with the track down around Orlando, but it's not like NW trends are uncommon either.

This is the one reason I have hope. The last few years we've had like 3-5 day cold periods at best with only one shot at threading the needle and making a storm work. This one is going to be rather extended comparatively, so we should get more chances. Which is really all we can ask for I guess. I'm not overly concerned with the trough axis yet because if the Atlantic block is as stout as showing, logically the trough should retrograde some with time, and the models just likely aren't seeing that yet. Now if the block trends worse, all bets are off.

GFS showed tons of potential with multiple shots at gulf lows following the 6th storm, but the Euro and it's ensemble was an ugly look no way around it. It kills the -EPO rather early in the run. Still think 9th-13th is our best window outside of the CAD on the 6th, can't buy the Euro suite wanting that energy to just get stuck for so long. Could definitely be potential beyond that, but too soon to say whether the pattern reloads or starts to break down mid month.

Our only shot at that first one is the 50/50 and block trending stronger and stronger as we approach. In my experience its usually a bit over done, I'd expect the GFS to move towards the Euro at least some. I agree with others that CMC could end up being middle ground between the two.

Euro cuts the energy off in the SW and it just sits there for 6 days before it ejects. I'll belive that when I see it.

That 10th time frame is going to take a while to sort out. There's a crazy amount of energy flying around there, not to mention that the outcome on the 6th likely has an impact also. High risk/high reward setup though.

Gonna be interesting to see which way this trends. Euro is faster and amped up, GFS is weaker and is really feeling the confluence between the 50/50 and the block. A true cutter is going to be tough if the 50/50 and block is in place, it's just going to shunt it due east everytime it wants to cut. I'm not willing to speculate, the differences are too miniscule, just gonna have to wait and see.

The Clipper on the 3rd is quietly trending a little bit more robust on the GFS, especially for the NC/TN mountain counties.

UK looked like the GFS at 12z. Will be curious to see how the NAO block looks on the 0z run when it comes out on wxbell, can only see CONUS view on pivotal. GFS is clearly feeling the west based NAO, cause it wants to cut but it just keeps forcing it due west to east.

Yep, soil temps affecting snow is a complete myth as long as we aren't talking very light snow. These are the conclusions from a NWS study on it when they found forecasters with this bias were partly responsible for underestimating snow forecasts. Note in the second conclusion the highest was a soil temp of over 54 degrees and still didn't inhibit accumulations. Most of us are well below that.

Also, the big Miller A behind it was very close to a triple phase.

The 6th storm came south that run, almost had a Miller B look to it instead of a pure cutter. As depicted it's showing sleet/zr in cad region but based on these 850 temps I actually think WNC, NE GA, and parts of the upstate would probably be snow/sleet. Surface temps are mid-upper 20s. Definitely need to watch the trends on this one.

The only thing that's changed at all thus far is the handling of the individual pieces of energy, which we know are still at a timeframe that they are definitely still wrong and will continue to change, good or bad. Facts are the advertised H5 pattern is the best we've seen since even before this snow drought started, and it looks to be a rather extended one. I hated today's trends too, but the changes were very minimal overall just very different sensible weather. The timing hasn't changed, and no cans have been kicked. I don't agree that past disappointment is a valid reason to just throw out all reasonable analysis, and act like this isn't a fantastic pattern. If you've got to, then there's other threads for that I guess. Do all great patterns produce? No, but many do. Belive me if we get to the last week of January and this has all went to crap I'll have my fair share of venting and frustration to post as well and I'll see you guys there. But for now I'm gonna try and enjoy this hobby, without being miserable.

Right now it all comes down to that southern energy not getting stuck out west. We need it to eject at the right time to not get squashed. Again, hopefully the H5 look is right cause it should reload a few times giving us more chances even if that one fails.