SnowDawg

Taller ridge also makes the northern stream energy dig harder, making a phase more likely. Normally I would say this could quickly trend to too much of a good thing and it could end up wanting to cut, but the blocking and 50/50 confluence over the top should largely prevent that.

Love the look, think if it were to come to pass it'd be more widespread snow/sleet and not as much ice as it was showing but far too early to sweat p-types at this point. Hopefully we start to see some ensemble convergence on the handling of the energy in the SW.

So looking at the 500mbar vorticity maps so we can see our pieces of energy, notice how unlike at 0z last night the Euro is not taking that big SW cutoff out into the pacific. At the same time our northern energy is digging further SW and attempting to phase. It ultimately fails, but it's a step in the right direction. (0z followed by new 12z)

Pretty substantial increase in QPF for the 10th/11th on the GEFS. Let's see if we can get this to continue trending this direction. Also fwiw, the Euro made a big jump towards the GFS with the handling of the SW energy.

That Miller A threat is still close on razor thin margins, it'll all come down to exactly how all three pieces of energy interact with one another. And frankly at this lead, the ensembles may be a little too coarse in their resolution to lean on. Just need to wait it out, but acknowledge cold/dry is the easier outcome to get. Side note as I'm just looking at it, but selfishly I'd take the 6z GFS in a heartbeat.

Agreed, and at least grand scale all the pieces were still there they just missed connecting by very small margins. Funny how at 12z we got the fantasy run but the GEFS got worse, but tonight the OP misses and the ensemble actually improved marginally.

GFS much closer to the 12z run than 18z. Just a bit too much interaction with the cutoff energy in the SW caused the phase to just miss.

Close enough. Storm signal is still there. Not much else to takeaway at this point. Just playing the waiting game for now.

Honestly the GEFS wasn't all that enthused either, at least in comparison to the OP. Still looks very suppressed. But still showing multiple threats 9-15 so on to the next run I guess.

Can we lock that one in? Everybody should be happy with it. Crushing snow very far south and extreme high ratio powder in the mtns and foothills. We all need snow, so no use fighting over the bullseye lol

As much as it was fun to think we could pull it off, the 6th storm was always supposed to be the stage setter in the step down process so I'm not going to fret too much about losing it. Should get at least two shots between the 9th and 15th, and in the past we'd be saying suppressed is right where we want them at this range. But we've lost a few storms to suppression during this drought so instead it just feels like it's set in stone already.

Nice change on the following wave. Ideally it gets going quicker in the Gulf to get everyone more involved. But a good signal for now nonetheless.

Had a feeling that would be the outcome when it dug so hard out west.

Could mean it tries to amplify and cut sooner. Let's see how our block does at slamming the door.

Same trend as above but for ice.

3 run trend from the Euro. It's coming south for now at least. If we could just get slower and weaker too, we'd be in business.

Based on the 18z euro I'd say timing is just as big a factor as North/South. The waves aren't tracking all that different but the faster euro has more room to amplify, less time for the CAD to build in, and precip starts during the warmest part of the day instead of overnight/early morning.

Still think a lot of the zr depicted is at worst sleet. During the bulk of the precip warm nose looks to be fairly thin and high up around 725-750 mbar. Below that it is solidly isothermal all the way to the ground.

Although very slightly more amped and north early, it's actually weakening and shearing out faster on approach as the block presses on it. There's not really much room for a big northern trend. I think the Euro is probably fairly close to the northern edge of the forecast envelope as long as the block and 50/50 are locked in.

Fwiw the 12z Euro AI still had the Miller A on the 10th. Albeit, light for most of the board outside of the deep south/coast with the track down around Orlando, but it's not like NW trends are uncommon either.

This is the one reason I have hope. The last few years we've had like 3-5 day cold periods at best with only one shot at threading the needle and making a storm work. This one is going to be rather extended comparatively, so we should get more chances. Which is really all we can ask for I guess. I'm not overly concerned with the trough axis yet because if the Atlantic block is as stout as showing, logically the trough should retrograde some with time, and the models just likely aren't seeing that yet. Now if the block trends worse, all bets are off.

GFS showed tons of potential with multiple shots at gulf lows following the 6th storm, but the Euro and it's ensemble was an ugly look no way around it. It kills the -EPO rather early in the run. Still think 9th-13th is our best window outside of the CAD on the 6th, can't buy the Euro suite wanting that energy to just get stuck for so long. Could definitely be potential beyond that, but too soon to say whether the pattern reloads or starts to break down mid month.

Our only shot at that first one is the 50/50 and block trending stronger and stronger as we approach. In my experience its usually a bit over done, I'd expect the GFS to move towards the Euro at least some. I agree with others that CMC could end up being middle ground between the two.

Euro cuts the energy off in the SW and it just sits there for 6 days before it ejects. I'll belive that when I see it.

That 10th time frame is going to take a while to sort out. There's a crazy amount of energy flying around there, not to mention that the outcome on the 6th likely has an impact also. High risk/high reward setup though.