SnowDawg

Holy smokes Euro.... Just an absolute perfect system. If only that was under 5 days.... This whole board deserves to end this drought on a storm like that.

You need to just keep asking for things please, cause seems the models just keep delivering on the very next run lol. I mean wow....about as perfect of a fantasy snow storm I've ever seen.

Overall a great look at this lead time. I'd take my chances that the stout 50/50 along with the arctic highs coming down would force that track a little further south. Regardless meaningless details at this point. Takeaway is pattern is there to support a miller A system.

New EPS snow mean. Starts around the 5th and just adds on nonstop through the end of the run. Getting multiple threats in this window could be huge, since as we all know we fail far more than we succeed.

Yep best run yet by far as I can tell.

I would argue the 8th-10th was actually quite close had the energy not got left behind back in the Rockies. You can see it start to organize in the southern plains and then gets sheared apart as the phase fails.

Very strange post from them. Using an old month long temperature outlook when everything currently valid from the CPC all the way out to January 24th is for well below normal temps in the east. Zero chance January is above normal if that is even close. Also, NOAA has still yet to declare LA Niña as enso neutral conditions continue to persist. Even if so it'd be extremely weak, and the MJO far more likely to drive the overall pattern.

Insane run. Snow on the ground and temps below zero for nearly 40 hours throughout TN, North GA, and W NC. I want snow as much as anybody, but that we can leave out in fantasy land where it belongs.

That was one of the best runs of the ensembles we've seen yet. Lots of small improvements at H5 which unsurprisingly led to a nice bump in snow means.

That GFS run really showed what a good -NAO can do for us if it can really be that persistent. I often feel like the effects of that kind of blocking are poorly modeled in the long range, so will be interesting to watch going forward.

At least for as far as we can reliably see, I think we really need that 6th-10th system to be the one. Late week two and week 3 of January could still hold promise but I hate betting on an unseeable future, when that timeframe is just a few small ticks from paydirt.

I remember a surprise sometime in that time frame too, one I'm remembering could've been in 2011/12 though not sure. I remember being forecasted flurries and then getting stuck at a friend's house with 4 or so inches. At least for us N GA and Upstate SC folks I'd call February 8th, 2020 a surprise, especially by modern standards. Most went to bed forecast rn/sn no accumulation, then woke up to WSW's and ended up with 3-6.

The mean trough is starting to trend a bit too far east for my liking on the ensembles. Much further and could look like this past weekends cold with storms not organizing til out over the Atlantic. Hopefully they'll tick back west over time.

GFS suite slowly taking baby steps towards the EPS over the last few runs. Time will tell if it folds entirely or they meet somewhere in the middle.

GEFS will always follow the OP to an extent as it suffers from underdispersal issues. Doesn't mean it's wrong, just an important thing to remember. It's GFS vs everybody else right now. Tendency after the last few winters is just to go with the warm look, but seeing people like Eric Webb and BAM adamantly against the idea of a persistent western trough gives me pause. Frustrating as it may be, guess we'll wait and see.

If the EPS had moved towards the GFS solution then I'd be super worried, instead it doubled down and improved an already great look. Even on the GEFS it looks more delayed than denied. GFS has been wrong on long range warmth at least twice already this season. Long ways to go, enjoy the model watching roller coaster lol.

I think at minimum the 4th-6th is the first period to watch to see if we can get some members to start to cluster around anything. Right now there is definitely a small signal in the noise, but still far too many scenarios on the table to draw any conclusions. 12z EPS showed these at the same time, I'll take it at this lead.

We're never gonna reel anything in from 380 hours but it's nice to see operational runs lining up with the potential seen on the ensembles.

An actual Miller A in fantasy land at 12z.... Brought a tear to my eye just seeing it.

This is from a recent post from Eric Webb. "Also, the destructive interference between the MJO & ENSO (which might cause RMM to enter the “null” phase or “circle of death”) will actually favor a colder pattern over the Eastern US in early to mid January here by reducing the amount of convective heating & +U that’s being fluxed into the pacific jet, favoring some pacific jet retraction."

I generally just remember them constantly shutting down any hopes that last winters cutter parade would turnaround. I'd say the same For Eric Webb last year. No hype, just straight brutal honesty.

Hopefully the folks over at BamWx are as right as they were last year. I think the worry about a warm canada is overblown, IF and only if the pattern is truly PV driven in January. If not, then yeah it'll take a while to slowly build cold air back in. But a north south stretched lobe of the PV parking itself in the Hudson Bay, funneling air straight off the pole, is not a slow building scenario. https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1868717494594089454?s=46&t=BVabKZBl0JP2qfoqs7LgyQ

GFS remains insistent on just dumping the cold out into the Atlantic. It and the GEFS want to center the ridge over the plains while the Euro and EPS are more over the Rockies.

Much better ridge trough alignment on the euro for extremely efficient cold air transport. Instead of being fed moderated Midwest air off the broad western ridge on the GFS, we have cold air dumping essentially due south out of eastern Canada. Quite the cold air source to pull from if we can just tap it. Hopefully the Euro is on to something with shifting that ridge back west a bit.

I would also say for the pre-christmas days despite the ensembles not being enthused yet, and the op runs backing off a touch, it's certainly still close enough to keep an eye on. Despite this drought making it feel otherwise, I'd say most of our winter events in the past, other than the true big dogs, trend towards us inside the last 120-144 hours or so and we reel them in right up to the end. Small adjustments in the ridge/trough alignment and the different pieces of energy could still make a big difference. I know I'd be happy just to see some token flurries around Christmas.