SnowDawg

My only concern is if we start this trend now how far is it gonna go? A little drier is fine, but remember we are going to use up a decent chunk of our qpf just on moistening the column with dewpoints being as low as they are going to be.

South and weaker, less qpf... Time for those nerves to set in.

Nam was really juicy honestly, and generally upped QPF across the south east up to the same hour as the 18z run ended. It was definitely warmer though, thus all the ice.

Wish the Euro would quit being such a thorn in the side when it comes to qpf.

NAM a little more amped therefor warmer aloft that run, but stronger CAD and much colder at the surface.

Hey, you're real close by right across the state line. Spend every day I can in the summer fishing down at the Chattooga on either 76 or 28. Generally if we do well over here then your area does as well, although we do have a bit better elevation.

I haven't looked at soundings to confirm this but it could be an elevated warm layer skewing the thickness values. Warm in the sense of relative to expected, but still isothermal. This is a snippet from Meteorologist Jeff Haby's page explaining. He's using 540 but I'm sure the same would apply to the general rule of 546 in the south. "For example, WAA can occur between 800 and 650 millibars, which causes the temperature in that layer to increase and thus results in the thickness increasing above 540. If the temperature between the surface and 650 millibars continues to stay below freezing, the precipitation will fall as snow." http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/97/

Seems like both GFS and Euro are making small adjustments toward one another each run. Middle ground scenario seeming likely for now.

Chris Justus at WYFF in Greenville, admittedly a fellow weenie, is going all in tonight.

At this range I'd consider those run to run changes on the GFS as almost negligible. At 18z it was a western outlier from its ensemble suite, let's see if that continues tonight.

Leaves a bunch of energy behind and shears out as it moves east. Huge foot plus snow storm all the way to North Mississippi and then just falls apart. Here's hoping it's wrong, but I think we're past the range where we can just say the Euro has a bias to leave energy behind and write it off. GFS also has a tendency to over-amplify the northern stream, so safe bet for now seems to be somewhere between the two.

Give me an amped solution with a slightly better track and I am thrilled. I'll happily take it as is, but if we're allowed to be picky that's my request lol

Another change I liked, across I believe all guidance, was the axis of snowfall out in Texas/Arkansas running more east/west.

Euro is actually much colder in the mid-levels than the GFS was just need better rates. I wouldn't expect as wild of run to run swings from the Euro, but at least it was a tick in the right direction.

Yeah, I think I've mistakenly been hoping for a weaker system to reduce warm air advection, but all the weak runs are terrible. Stronger runs are pulling more cold air from nearby into the system. I'm fine with a messy winter storm, I mean that accounts for like 95% of our events, but I'd really like to score nicely on that front end before the mixing starts. GEFS also jumped considerably colder at 850 compared to 6z.

H5 was improved on the GFS, I'll take that and move on to the next runs. Better phase with the northern energy improved the mid-level thermals and made the front end thump last longer.

I'll just say, and this is not analysis of any kind, but I'd say that kind of freezing rain is rarely that widespread and I'll belive it when I see it. Better/deeper low level cold from the snow pack to the north could give us a ton of sleet which I'll take any day over zr.

Yeah I see what you're saying. I'm just worried about more amplification if our mid-level thermals are already such a problem.

These trends are just plain bad no sugar coating it. I'm just glad we've got as much time as we do to maybe trend back the other way with more confluence over the top.

Would really like to get back to southern slider solutions. That is a mid-atlantic storm.

If there's a time frame to trend towards dry and suppression I'll take it now as opposed to later. With how often things tend to windshield wiper on the models, plenty of time to trend one way for a few runs and then back the other way.

Name of the game on both ensembles at 12z was to lower QPF on the northern side and have more dry sheared out members. Long ways to go still, and still many different scenarios on the table. The various pieces of our system will move on shore over the next few days, so should start to get some better sampling.

GEFS with a warning shot that suppressed and largely dry is very much still on the table.

I'd bet as long as the setup continues to be modeled as is, low level cold will improve as we get closer. There is a CAD signature as our storm is moving in, albeit light. Even in normal circumstances these are usually underestimated by the global models, and this time the damming high will be sitting right on top of fresh snow pack in the mid-atlantic.

GFS again shows the best option may be to leave that baja low behind.