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SnowDawg

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Everything posted by SnowDawg

  1. SnowDawg
    Looks like small ticks south and west in the mean low position are definitely on the table if those far eastern outliers are eliminated.
  2. SnowDawg
    That run right there is what every single person on this board deserves. Foothills and upstate deserves this win! Reel it in.
  3. SnowDawg
    Wow 18z euro.... I'm still not all in on this but that run is enticing me lol
  4. SnowDawg
    Would love just a bit more dig on the ULL there. Worry about downsloping across the smokies here with that trajectory.
  5. SnowDawg
    How good are the models at accounting for virga in the total QPF output? On the western side we'll be fighting for every tenth of an inch we can get so that will matter.
  6. SnowDawg
    Still having power/internet/cell service problems here so I'm not able to see any models for this one. Can load one page of this thread in like 5 minutes lol. Any chance this thing can get going in the northern gulf a little sooner? Tired of being fringed by every single event except for ice storms apparently.
  7. SnowDawg
    Definitely gonna need more moisture back this way than the Euro showed not to just lose all of it to virga given how dry the initial airmass is going to be.
  8. SnowDawg
    I wanna see how the grid looks here after this wind tonight before I get excited for that. I want a snow bad, but I'm not sure we'd be ready to handle that one so soon. Definitely not very far out though. Google model showed same look and it was first to lock in to this one at 6 days out.
  9. SnowDawg
    I just desperately hope people prepared for the cold around here and got secondary heat sources. Already near 80% out of power and the wind ain't even really started yet.
  10. SnowDawg
    Really is, I've heard from folks in Jackson County area that it's been nothing but sleet the whole time for the most part. I've seen nothing but freezing rain since like 6 this morning. And even last night it was mixed with ZR. I had between a Qtr to half an inch already by like 9-10AM.
  11. SnowDawg
    Things are going to get real bad here when the cold front arrives late tonight into the morning. I think we've just got barely above 32 with this heavy precip pushing the warm air down, but there's got to be at least 0.5 to 0.75 built up. I don't really know honestly, alreqdy had a tree almost fall on me during helene so I ain't about to go check. Can't imagine what it's gonna sound like when the winds get up to 30-40mph
  12. SnowDawg
    Both maybe. It will all depend on your exact temp. Part of county will likely be just above freezing by then part not. No guarantee on thunder but definitely a stronger line of convective showers than seen so far regardless.
  13. SnowDawg
    Over 60% without power in Rabun county and rapidly going up. Even with a brief period just above freezing likely later, I'm very concerned about how things get when the heavy winds arrive.
  14. SnowDawg
    Freezing rain will just not let up here. Trees/branches are starting to pop at a frightening pace so I'm done walking out to try and measure but I'm confident it's well over a half inch now.
  15. SnowDawg
    Stayed wintry mix over night mostly, but has been off and on heavy freezing rain with drizzle in between this morning. Adding up fast as are the power outages.
  16. SnowDawg
    At my folks house taking care of them on the south side of Rabun county (Wiley). Just crossed the freezing mark at the surface and steadily dropping. Only the brighter returns are making it to the ground for now, but unfortunately all liquid. Afraid this one is gonna be really rough here...
  17. SnowDawg
    Snow sleet mix here. 35 degrees but imagine it'll start wet bulbing down.
  18. SnowDawg
    Yeah this was my thinking. Temps are usually a bit more borderline than this when we see ZR. Plus wind makes accrual more efficient. Could be more like 0.6 to 0.75 depending on localized conditions.
  19. SnowDawg
    If that warm nose ends up at +10 degrees or more like some models have shown there ain't nothing stopping that. At that point it's all about that surface level wedge being deeper for sleet.
  20. SnowDawg
    SW NC mountains start to get out of the CAD wedge too the further you go, which is the primary source for the low level cold needed for sustained freezing rain.
  21. SnowDawg
    So nice to finally see a classic I-85 corridor winter storm again. This region has been screwed over for too long now. Oh, wait no....
  22. SnowDawg
    More phasing and higher heights in the east on the mean. Not sure I'd call that better at all.
  23. SnowDawg
    Just to rain on the parade a bit, The AI GFS and GEFS went slightly the other way at H5. Lots of members in both camps though so we track on.
  24. SnowDawg
    Yeah the other models really have already moved that way to an extent, they all just have a much further starting point than the GFS to get back to positive for us.
  25. SnowDawg
    Only thing that makes me feel this has a chance to actually at least move partially in that direction is that this has essentiallly been what every system has done for a few years now. As we get closer the northern stream gets more progressive and stronger and suppresses the flow in front of the weaker sheared southern wave. Thorn in our side all those times before but could be our saving grace this time. IF we can get it to keep trending.
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