STILL N OF PIKE

On express lift /Sunapee. Made it down top to bottom pretty nicely . Not that bad

Nearly best track on 12/9-10 system but airmass is not servicing many this run BL torched past Berks Initially nevermind CP , flip to snow for S VT , Berks elevations

Like Sands thru the hourglass These are the weenies of our lives

In all honesty what upstream conditions is the gfs seeing / hallucinating that wants to make it continually dig for gold by Sw Cali and is it prone to doing this or what are model bias in that region with persistent troughing if any . It’s pretty clear that area will see a trough that will be established This week , it’s more when does it abate

Scooter opened the flood gates with the g is for grinch comments , see how fast things fall apart when a met has some fun

What shape would ski resorts be in If the gfs was right , many closing prior to Xmas week , kids in tears , parents cancelling 5k weekly condos , reindeer sweaters being donned . It would be tuff to see , just hard to watch .

Ya , SNE and the entire CP of New England doesn’t usually see much before the 15’th While The ole snow stake at the picnic tables may look way below average a week from now . I think it’s probably 6-7” now and ave should creep above 20” next week and mid week rain should pat that down

Ya, I think given the large spacial dimension of the NAO, PNA etc you wanna avoid blanket statements that this plus this = that .

Do we have like 10-15 going ?

I think 6z gfs or something suppressed it Into mid Atlantic and gave them snows outside DC . Tons of volatility and you just sort of wait for a trend to take hold

There was a post by scott about people freaking about above normal 500 mb height anomalies In runs a week week Ago (for next week ) over SE / mid Atlantic and slightly above in parts of SNE and he overlayed a 2 M temp forecast that had “light blues “ to basically make a point that not to worry based on that scenario, but that same 2 m temp map is different now as you probably Know . (I do remember the 10+ 2 m anomaly’s were just East of New England over parts of Nova Scotia )

12-9 is amped to the tiits on 0z gfs

You sound like tippy . I think it’s simply most people (But Ray) Bought into a period of below normal temps and east trough with snow chances after the 5’th and it’s not happening on that time frame , not because of rushing season but bc they bought into that modeling time frame or they are simply mentioning it and If people who seem upset about that logic that the models were off for 12/5 to 12/14 would simply say “ya it’s delayed , models were off, that part changed clearly on 500mb anomaly maps , it would not be a topic . It would have been like 3-4 comments lol . Like I think it should have been . i really don’t think solar insulation has anything at all to do with anything here ... But I sure hate when it’s pitch black at 430 pm , it takes me months to see that as normal .

It’s like reading 1984 in here sometimes

Lol , awesome

Jay are you getting to the GTG for the love of your own balls

The mets don’t get very high or low , they Are pretty even tempered , we are really lucky that they have that temperament and they aren’t nuts . They also want to maintain Some continuity bc their posts carry more weight and imo they also hate weenies complaining or poo pooing so keep that in mind .

There are definite exceptions . CPC maps shade above normal ave Temp in the New England thru next 10 days as most have seen , with pna and Nao being whatever they are

You hate to see the F bombs .. jk .. i prob care less about the weather in my specific spot more than most bc I’ll drive to snow Like a degenerate Feind . My schedule and work let’s me do this more than ever this year . Once we get passed mid week rain to Quebec I’ll be relaxed as long as NNE doesn’t torch post that

Right ..but the crux of his post was to show having high confidence in ensembles Days 11-15 is not warranted . Now I know all set ups are not created equally so is it higher than normal with a PNA/ /NAO set up we are hoping makes it inside 9-10 days by mid week

Many many days of kids stuck in house making noise.

It’s at least something I’ll be tracking that’s well inside 10 days. That was as amped as I’ve seen it and you can see this is basically a western threat if it’s gonna do much anywhere

Fortunately the 18z gfs came in more amped with the day 5.5-6 system and it isn’t suppressed this run ..unfortunately as it tracks under long island the air mass is torched except for Catskills . Which gives hunter mtn a weenie 20”

Also there won’t be cutters with a block . I think you should remind folks of that

I just think a lot of folks are having higher confidence past a 12 day-2 week forecast period than **i believe** is warranted I know Ray bc he believes in medium range forecasting skill ..But Most others bc models have consistently shown a great look at day 10-15 for 5 days but the look hasn’t got inside 10 days . I don’t have much faith in medium term forecasting on our sensible weather, never mind high confidence. Yes this Period still has a high ceiling but wide goal posts