STILL N OF PIKE

The nothing has changed folks , everything as scheduled were put out to pasture . The kicking and screaming is over . It was clear at 1:30 am when I really looked at those 5H anomaly changes and toggled thru them . There were hints of this the last couple days but there was more clearly shown last nite . EPS Weren’t out yet when I fell asleep but they moved oward the others in that “bootleg “ look . Just look at the 500mb Height anomaly ( not the 5 day mean ) look to see the trend clearer The block Had morphed into something significantly differen then forecast days ago and last nite continued with more changes as heights over Greenland fell significantly on all modeling in the day 5-9 time frame Things are up in the air as they have been , unless you wanna pretend a 11-15 day look is not la la land .

Regarding the Blocking differences Over days 5-9 between 12z eps and gefs At 0z You can see the small difference in the way the 0z gefs And the 12z eps handle the eastern flank of some lower hieghts at 500mb rotating north Thru Hudson Bay as early as hour 84-96 and how the GFS almost allows that area of lower heights to bleed East toward Greenland over the next day and weaken the blocking over Greenland significantly and the block sort of re-establishes itself weaker well South west over S Hudson Bay almost . where as the euro has that same hint of slightly lower heights rotating up thru Hudson Bay at hour 84 and after but it **doesn’t then bleed East and significantly weaken the block over Greenland** Over the subsequent couple days (like the gfs) and that hint of lower heights just sort of fills a bit and ya the block backs SW a tad bot nowhere need as far Southwest as the GFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2022120518&fh=18 And in case anyone is wondering the GEPS shifted a tad south with its blocking on 0z Run for the above mentioned time period . lowered heights over Greenland for that day 6.5 period when comparing to the 12z run And is sort of a blend of gefs/ eps But trended south with the block more toward gefs a bit

Ya it really shows up as early as hour 144 with the shift south in the blocking as it weakens over and west of Greenland and moved considerably south and that is day 6

Was actually about to post that , that would be a large win

They can certainly cut into Wisconsin and then they try and redevelop late . Look at the 500mb heights and anomalies on 0z gfs at hour 150-200. There is a reason it shows it cutting . Loom what the gefs did with the block for days 7-10 compared to a few days ago . It’s wild

0z gfs is at least active and still hits interior with a few winter storms before Xmas . The cutter on the 14 somehow squeezes some frozen initially in NNE . Hopefully we can reverse the unfavorable trend on that one

It led the way with lower heights off Cali , no ? Why would anyone think a 10-15 day ensemble of anything has good confidence

He doesn’t even entertain me anymore . Does anyone know of anyone who pays for his “service”

Ya , based on today forecast .

I wonder what NNE May average for December...+8? For BTV , Caribou etc .

Press 1 to create your own cold air wherever you please

1 800 George1

Would you say you have the Confidence of something resembling a thawed out/ soggy tater tot

What happens first ..11-15 day Shiats itself or it moves inside 10 days . Anyone taking any action / odds for this Thursday

Euro was juicy for middle next week

Mmmk I’m done following this one lol . Poofy no system

12z euro does look more amped than it has in a bit to me for the 12/9-10 deal Thou it may just be a closer miss

^We are glad you are still on board .^ I think given everyone’s time on the board they can differentiate between the occasional troll or newbie ignorance and realize most folks Questioning LR are and were just trying to articulate skepticism on being confident on a LR good look , esp after it was pushed back . Not an obsession just more of a persistence that they felt needed repeating since it wasn’t acknowledged Without the usual “shut up , “dumb” or “your an idiot“ reply’s lol . I think most people genuinely see roughly the same thing . Some just post more optimisticly about the LR, some post saying “hey let’s not really be too confident now , it’s not getting inside 10 days , so ya it can happen , but let’s see it get inside that window “ . Again an occasional troll post can be discarded as non sense

The Pope was last seen on route 1 Peabody at the golden banana with a 12 pack . He’s had better days

I think it’s all in the semantics . It’s two side of the same coin for the majority of the discussion . Some are saying “this is why I think this Period looks great ..based on the models at this time frame ” and others are saying “it’s LR so i wouldn’t be that confident in it happening as many hope or as good as it seems, especially with a delay “ and then it’s all a bunch of defensive posts in between harping on one side of a similar coin . One side seems to get emotional the other has been generally out numbered and told to STFU lol I don’t think they are that far apart with what they see , just how they comment on it.

What is forky saying now

Which are we more likely to run into on Worcester Saturday .

What are your thoughts , you have been quiet as a field mouse . You confident in a good pattern upcoming sir

Nah your melting

Yes you may have had a pretty excellent initial outlook but after sipping some board enthusiasm per model runs that transitioned things earlier I’m sure you altered that based on the info at hand . Now that info has gone back to support your initial ideas more . That is my take , wrong ? On the whole you were less enthusiastic about the 8-15’th period than many here were (and That simply is clear if anyone has the courage to read the first 5 pages of this thread .