STILL N OF PIKE

That’s a wild set up , you can see that huge ocean system With tropical origins come up off se Canada and retro A tad right as the new system is coming under the Block . I’m impressed it’s even semi consistent with all the moving parts

NNE is going thru quite the fun period 5 straight cutters then hopefully snows . That’s sorta climo for us this early but they are getting skunked lately in The mountains , for real .

Heisy, are you still in philly area , you chasing anything potentially this year

Press 1 if a model run has caused you to dangle your leg over the Tobin, press 2 to Hear reasons why nothing has changed and things look better than ever , press 3 to speak to dr tip regarding a script , press 4 if the children of your family know “Not to bother daddy during model runs or if they show a torch” press 5 if your from NYC south to the Mid Atlantic - we don’t have much hope for you

I chased that storm looking for the mid level goodies in NY state and missed badly , needed to head to BGM

A lot of folks have a lot riding on this pattern emotionally , we may want to set up some phone numbers / call centers for folks over the coming Weeks

I think his post about melts was on point and would be poorly received , but he is my Dr so I maybe biased

That’s it’s base state

I’d like Tip to be able hikack NCEP model runs for a 24 hr period and just put folks on a terrific bi polar inducing roller coaster of Varying emotions and see who cracks loudest

Yah seems like we would ironically benefit on this shortwave from the trough to Tijuana , all else being equal

Congrats Ski resorts . Yes please

Ya I mean ..that was pretty clear to see it was running into confluence . Thou that high is “scootin East “ but there was another high pressing in just in time for northern areas of forum

I think there are those who complain about Melts if the same person tends to melt and get emotional time after time and those like you describe for sure who either want to maintain their views that bring them genuine snow joy and the people questioning the pattern are their joy killers with also a sprinkle in of those who don’t want to hear “weenies whine” so they stretch the limits of nothing has changed Perspective To silence any reason to say something looks worse . I think this week thou there is very little melts really by either side . A little of the the former as well as I think the closest melt I read on here was from Tim Kelly and I’m sure he’s Partially just sick of seeing cutters thru Stowe being modeled . He’s a big ski weenie

With regard to period 2 and I should probably know this after 10 years , but does the deep S Cali trough that we’ve seen emerge and persist thru 8-10’th pump se ridge during period 2 ? And does that also feedback into less wiggle room for a well situated high to set up establish itself in S Canada . I believe I know answer to first question but not necessarily the second .

Negative . You. Can’t keep moving goalposts just so everyone feels that nothing has changed thou it may help snow mood . That’s not a net neutral thing . It’s what it is and your just left hoping the 10-15 day period that has been pushed back holds on again . That’s actually accurate but folks don’t seem to want to hear it . i think my posts often come thru as “negative “‘when I’m really just trying my best to be objective

How much confidence should one put into the pacific looking good then at this lead time , not being funny lol serious question . Or is it just less hostile . I mean at 12 days plus out what teleconnectors or upstream / down stream forcing / ridging etc gives it a better than normal chance at what I otherwise would consider la la range

Euro Ens def still cooler than op thou they moderated a touch in the day 8-10 time frame i Can’t really take anything beyond day 10 that seriously when it comes to how the pacific may look but monitoring trends on EPS regarding AK/ West coast ridge / trough orientation obviously being followed

Ya the retro storm didn’t get going on euro , it was in position early but the 943 mb low well north east of it sorta stole the show . That was 20 MB stronger than 12z run

My forum is asleep but notable the 0z Euro op flipped in the S Cali / AZ area and really buried that trough If you look between 12z and 0z (runs ) if you toggle around day 8 and on . The 850 c changes seemed rather Big -and then some downstream effects

There is def that signal. We are gonna need a better less transient high pressures in S Canada not crap sliding NE of Nova Scotia . Otherwise the SWFE is for Saint Lawrence valley and north and I think the models burying big negative departures today into Tijuana Is generally ugly . Gfs / gefs shifted at 12z got worse at 18z and stayed course at 0z and 0z euro didn’t look tasty

Well the high slid away and it was rains to Maine’s on that . Needed that high a tad west or at least not oriented NW-SE into N Atlantic

Ya , I honestly just think it will be a feature not a storm for us the thing models seem to be keying in on today (may change) are big negative departures in Cali/Az/Nevada out at day 8-10 gfs flipped earlier in day and euro just now with a *very large pronounced *change colder in that area . Also this run flipped 850’s about 8c milder for New England in that time frame but that could flip again. Looks like a chase to mammoth mountain would be interesting

The energy from the retro low is from the well modeled system passing us on day 5.5 and then getting clogged in the well established block that every model has . The track is definitely not predictable at this lead but the storm itself I buy, could get hung up off SE Canada or East of New England or way out by flemish cap lol but it’s not much of a stretch that it fits the pattern from day 6-10 . Will it happen ?? Dunno but I think the idea of a retro storm in n Atlantic offshore is not unlikely given the block look day 7-10 But ya will it make it back to 65-70 west longitude..too far out in time .

Let’s suck that in to the area

Euro and gfs have it . I don’t think a track hitting us it will stick , but When you have a *very strong Persistent block* modeled across all Guidance you can see some early indicators of a storm evolution That catches on . the energy From the day 10 storm traces from the day 5.5 low that passes over us and establishes the block . That is well modeled and not dependent of the latter period pacific question marks . Then as it passes by and sort of redevelops a low East of Maine it gets clogged up in the N Atlantic under the block And has less escape options and sometimes can be sniffed out at longer leads. Sandy was a good example My guess is the retro is real but may end up too Far East of us