STILL N OF PIKE

Ya , I think everyone comprehends the period . The next 10 days . Then like we do with anything that looks favorable outside of day 10 , we hope the good look holds .

100% For the entire paragraph

I mean I don’t trust the gfs or really any of the modeling / ensembles once you get past a week nevermind mid month , i mean it’s la la land . I’m just pointing (it’s hard )how the 6-14’th period has moderated significantly on guidance and then people tend to freak out or Pretend it hasn’t . **Loop the EPS anomalies from 4-5 days ago for the period compared to today’s** Loop anything . I’m not talking about past the 14’th and not saying it can’t snow in the 10-14’th inland . Just that simply (gasp lol) it turned worse ( no need to panic ) it really should just be a one paragraph post that doesn’t need to be repeated 15x . It’s not a large deal but it’s a simple fact . For those in the CP it didn’t really change sensible snow chances that much bc that was never a high probability there .

If you go to that link Scott posted and go to Nov 30 and loop 500mb anomaly’s for dec 5-10 and then look at eps for today For that period can you explain to me what is shown

I would wager 50$ with George and give him a over /under of 75” in Boston out of the kindness in my heart

Things didn’t always look mild

Thanks , I just toggled back to how things looked on NOV 30’th for the 5-10’th of December period and then today how they look for that period . ...ya

George will you be making it to the GTG, it would spice things up

I’m saving the chance is lower than several days ago for the.first two system (it’s still a chance) , no shit there is a chance at this range . You know when you click on your weather app and it says 70% chance of showers later tonite and then you click 6 hours later and the chance has gone to 50% , that is the idea here for the 9-15’th period . It doesn’t require a degree in meteorology or mathematics but perhaps psychology

There is definitely some truth that Over the last few days the period of the 9-15 has trended toward worse chances of wintry weather from NNE to SNE (than how things looked a week ago for that period . Chances were never that high for CP of SNE so that group shouldn’t mind these changes . It can still snow in interior but more help maybe needed . You have the lower heights hanging around Cali Which was a new development over the last 4 days Of modeling and then scooter mentioned the orientation of the block looking less favorable over that period . The period after looks very good but it’s far enough out that it is not very confidence to me . Also the period of the 9-15 seems like it could still deliver just that we may need more luck In CNE/ NNE then it may have seemed several days ago for the same period . anyone, let me know what is not accurate about that statement .

Is there any sort of image/ map you could point to that shows sorta what your talking about . so basically the block being further East thru mid month helps storms cut toward Great Lakes and then redevelopment under the block is further north and a tad weaker ? Or what is a better way to put it regarding the other features that become tweaked And the effects on sensible weather odds / chances etc

Maybe if you’ve been a good boy Santa will bring you another relaxation period around Xmas

Euro op boring / blah compared to gfs . We roll the dice again at 0z. Takes the 12’th system to Montreal but yes 9 days out , just shows the goal posts are very wide that far out .

I think NNE is in line to have some real wide goal posts for December temperature departures anywhere from a little below to torchy depending on how things break for them past the 12’th . First 1/3 of month should be much above there .

Oh 100% it is I’m trying to remember thou what models are good these days . I heard many poo-poo the ecmwef / even Euro ENS the gfs op past day 5 , etc . But yes I agree the CMC Is the worst

Ya , it’s beautiful. And then you got the CMC which would test even the rosier folks definition of “nothing has changed” as a cutter goes thru Minneapolis And more are lined up .

Every model run is like forest gumps box of chocolates . I’d like one more model run to show a surprise snower from the 9’th. Some are close still .

I like that bomb at hour 260-270. Juicy . Just outside 128/495 The one before that was more Berks / Catskills but something

We have added a couple more lines for the weekend

What are their latest thoughts

Patricia has no Business (it seems) running any offense . I look to the patriots Brain trust and wonder wtf are they thinking , no wonder Mac was pissed earlier in the year before he had a job scare .

The Dow Jones is only down 5% on the year , SP about 15% . Big rebound in the indexes in the last 30 days . Fundamentals haven’t changed but it’s funny how there are other factors that can drive the bus

End of that gfs run was looking juicy and wild , like the kilfs

Yes plz

I just loathe repeating early winter rains in the mountains