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mikem81

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  1. mikem81
    Love your analysis and I check this forum from Long Island to see your posts. What are york thoughts for my area? You seems to think this will trend NW. what are we specifically looking for for the ULL and anything else the next few Runs?
  2. mikem81
    The sabbath. What can I do. Recommend everyone take 25 hours off at this point and check back after that period. It’s healthy
  3. mikem81
    I feel like we saw the famous windshield wiper effect today between 0z and 12/18z with the western and eastern extremes. I’m assuming 0z will be somewhere in between at least for the Euro
  4. mikem81
    Do you have the LP for the ensembles?
  5. mikem81
    The 6Z EURO (literally from 12 hours ago) and 12Z UK look pretty darn good
  6. mikem81
    Seems like the 0Z CMC and EURO and 12Z UKMET were actually crazy on the coast, like almost into NYC. Not sure a freak out is called for over the 18Z euro
  7. mikem81
    I missed the last 24 hours of models. Can someone please give me a brief rundown of where we stand? Seems like 0Z runs were great and then today everything fell apart except for the GEFS trending better as everything else trended worse?
  8. mikem81
    The NAM makes so many changes run to run I wouldnt discount a 2-3 inch front end snow band in the area between 4pm and 8pm. The other models seem to all have it
  9. mikem81
    Identical if true. 12Z had .2
  10. mikem81
    Radar returns over the area already but we’ll see…
  11. mikem81
    At this point can’t you just compare to the current radar ??
  12. mikem81
    15z SREF increased once again
  13. mikem81
    GFS increased precip for tonigt. about .2 NYC .25 JFK
  14. mikem81
    12Z ICON north of 6Z
  15. mikem81
    Air doesn’t seem too dry. Dp is 21 here is middle of Nassau county. Not sure what dew points are north of here
  16. mikem81
    18Z NAM looking pretty terrible
  17. mikem81
    They were already .4 of precious at 15z. What are they up to?
  18. mikem81
    About .35 precip on both NAM and RGEM. EURO/GFS are essentially .1 though. Well see...
  19. mikem81
    Started out that way... Not sure the result will be much different.
  20. mikem81
    15Z SREF looks north again
  21. mikem81
    Yes both RGEM and Icon bumped slightly north. Maybe 25 miles or so. We’ll need a few more of those.. ideally we’d like to only need a 25 Mile north jog going into the event as these often end up slightly north of final modeling
  22. mikem81
  23. mikem81
    SREF mean for JFK went from .3 to .4 from 3Z to 9Z. Hopefully the better models will follow north
  24. mikem81
    It wasnt so north but i really was focusing on the strength and LP
  25. mikem81
    NAM well north at 12z but it sucked last night so we’ll see. Good trend though
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