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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    On radar to me the banding looks to setup pretty far east. I guess that perspective is influenced by location. Relatively warm temps aren't being caused by a tucked SLP track. Track looks well offshore. For the temps we have the stacked low pressure center (instead of high pressure) in Ontario to blame.
  2. eduggs
    You're passing your interpretation off as an objective observation. I think it's subjective. To me the precipitation shield is not definitively more expansive than modeled. In truth it's really hard to say for sure without a denser network of rain gauges. I'm hoping for an expansive precip. shield and as much snow as possible. But I also don't want to build false expectations.
  3. eduggs
    I don't trust sim radars. Preferably I like to compare upper level charts with interpolated RAOBs. Or model forecast QPF with surface observations. I hope you're right but to me the radar looks as modeled or even a little bit weaker. I'd prefer to see the s/w a little more wrapped up out ahead of the northern stream front. To me it looks like it will get shunted eastward as modeled. Wherever the best banding sets up should do okay. But I don't see a big positive bust with this one so far.
  4. eduggs
    The GFS cut back QPF from 18z. Shifted east slightly. No help there. Minor accumulations NW of NYC. Could still be a quick and disruptive 1-3.
  5. eduggs
    Most guidance was pretty wet in central TN tonight. What makes you think it's outperforming?
  6. eduggs
    The RGEM hits Suffolk Co. pretty hard. Mostly light accumulations west of LI.
  7. eduggs
    Our future precip. is currently in TN. It looks pretty well modeled to me so far.
  8. eduggs
    The heavy stuff still goes from SNJ into eastern SNE. Only LI looks to get >0.5" QPF.
  9. eduggs
    The 0.4" QPF contour runs across LI on every piece of 18z guidance I've seen except the 12km NAM and a handful of SREF and ensemble members. And those have been shifting east.
  10. eduggs
    I'm not vouching for it. I'm just pointing out yet another model that had been showing moderate QPF that has backed off as we've gotten closer. There's not much model support for >0.4" QPF outside of far eastern areas.
  11. eduggs
    The latest HRRR looks like a general 1-3 except maybe far eastern LI.
  12. eduggs
    Maybe a couple hours of decent banding potential as far west as NYC. There might be some spotty banding west of there too. It better really dump in that 4 hour window that we get.
  13. eduggs
    Our shortwave is the area of precipitation rotating near the border of OK and AR. I think it's difficult to say how that translates northeastward.
  14. eduggs
    The mid-level s/w on most guidance is not very sharp, which inhibits the precip. shield from making it too far NW and also allows the system to be shunted eastward. But the solution is very sensitive to the s/w sharpness. Heavier banding could easily shift 50 miles one way or the other from a very minor change in upper level features.
  15. eduggs
    It looks like a pretty straight forward 2-4" forecast for now with a mention of up to 6" or so if and where banding sets up. Model consensus overall is pretty good IMO. The NAM track is slightly west of consensus.
  16. eduggs
    Whoever can stay snow along the coast - particularly eastern sections, has a shot at 6" of snow I think. But the forecasted SLP is pretty far offshore and it's moving quickly. There isn't a well-defined mid-level circulation to throw moisture back over us. There's a lot more to snow accumulations than track and surface pressure.
  17. eduggs
    I disagree. Models have never been more accurate. People need to stop obsessing over QPF and vendor snow maps and start looking at the model panels - 850mb, 700mb, 500mb etc. We have model information overload these days, and people see what they want to see.
  18. eduggs
    Looks like the 0z NAM is going to be a little east and dryer. The H5 height field is slightly less favorable. Still a close call with plenty of time to nudge closer.
  19. eduggs
    Yeah the GEFS mean has been trending closer to the coast and wetter for a few runs now. It's noticeably wetter this run. About .3 or .4 inches liquid.
  20. eduggs
    A lot of that forecasted snow fell over the past 3 hours I think.
  21. eduggs
    Someplace is NW Morris County would likely have 35" from this storm if measured every 6 hours. But I don't think any official measurement will hit that mark.
  22. eduggs
    Interesting how the stationary band follows the topography of N Passaic and Morris Counties. Could be a little topographical enhancement going on. And then a little downsloping to the west. The mesos have been hinting at this for the past few days.
  23. eduggs
    Minus whatever fell since 1pm.
  24. eduggs
    Yes. Some healthy blossoming of the returns out over the water.
  25. eduggs
    I think most of the NYC metro still has a shot at 18-20". But I don't think the radar will fully fill back in. There is some regeneration of bands ongoing over the Atlantic, but the best mid-level lift has shifted NW and will likely rotate into extreme NWNJ, NEPA, and SENY. I hope I'm wrong and widespread heavy snow regenerates over the entire area, but that's not how it looks to me right now.
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