Chicago Storm

an excerpt from this mornings lot afd. this is the same guy that went deep weenie the one shift prior to the nov les event. what he mentioned in the below afd is flat out dumb to say, especially since it’s simply not true. it seems very clear that she should not be in the position of work that he is in. in other words, not in an important nws roll. /rant “JUST HAVE TO NOTE... IF WE WEREN'T DEALING WITH DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR PROBLEMS THIS MORNING, THE AXIS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW PROBABLY WOULD HAVE BEEN MORE LIKE 6 TO 12 INCHES (IF NOT MORE) OF SNOW. THESE NARROW CONVECTIVE SNOW BAND EVENTS ARE THE WINTERTIME EQUIVALENT OF SUMMERTIME TRAINING THUNDERSTORM EVENTS, AND CAN JUST HAMMER THE SAME AREA ALL DAY/NIGHT LEADING TO VERY PRONOUNCED IMPACTS. SO, THANK YOU DRY AIR.”

ORD ended up with 2.6" of snow as a result of the LES event on Friday... …2025/26 Season Snowfall... 31.2" - ORD 24.0" - RFD

Random stat alert... For the first time since the winter of 1978/79, Chicago has had average or above average snowfall in each month (Nov-Dec-Jan).

I’d put the number around 50%, in terms of ENS showing an actual SSWE.

most definitely is.

window for better/bigger storm potential incoming.

definitely.

in the real world, the short full on east coast window failed. carolina’s ftw, though.

METAR KORD 302151Z 04014KT 3SM R10L/3500VP6000FT -SN BR OVC015 M08/M12 A3037 RMK AO2 SLP299 SNINCR 1/4 P0002 T10781117

currently, yes.

METAR KORD 302051Z 03006KT 1/4SM R10L/1800V3000FT +SN FZFG VV010 M08/M09 A3036 RMK AO2 SLP295 SNINCR 1/3 P0003 60007 T10781094 55001

walk over here.

SN/+SN for over an hour now at ORD.

Rolling into work on 294 on the SW side of the airport, and it’s rip city.

The headlines in place have high “bust” potential. The WWA will likely “bust” for most areas with the round this morning/afternoon just due to the fact that the higher accumulations will be very localized. For the round between this evening through tomorrow evening, it’s very clear that the best accumulations will be from Downtown/Eastern Cook County on east into northwest Indiana. So, due to how headlines have to be issued, most of the warning will “bust” for much of Cook County.

i think it's common knowledge here that many winter threads will go off the rails at some point with some mi winter weather history or some other back-and-forth. ...which is why it's a running joke.

why would one bitch about others talking current weather?

ready for spc outlooks to be the most confusing thing ever? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditional-intensity-information/

I'd say it's because each wave will be distinct, with a likely break between them. Additionally, the first wave is a guarantee at this point. Though, quality/widespread WWA level snows may not materialize in the end, and may be more localized. The second wave (single plume) is more in question in regards to placement.

a lot of people do, surprisingly/unsurprisingly.

hoosier was kicked from the board, think it was last winter (?).

congrats southern cook and nw indiana?

I’m talking more-so through current time, that it has not been an East Coast pattern thus far. I probably should have been more clear with that. With the pattern expected to relax a bit coming up to end the month and begin February, during that timeframe the East Coast definitely holds the best chance for a bigger event. The pattern looks to shift and re-load deeper into February, bringing more widespread chances of something better. Until then, we’ll probably be in clipper mode, unless a surprise hybrid pops up.

ORD has picked up 8.7" of snow over the past two weeks, thanks to several clippers + LE. It may not seem like a lot, but we are now sitting at average snowfall for the month of January. Other areas in NE IL and the metro have received even more than that (Up by the border & along the lake). Did the East Coast rack up a big snowfall this weekend? Sure, but so did a majority of the subforum. A foot of snow fell 4 hours from here. If it were an East Coast pattern, none of the above would be reality.

Lake effect saved the day... Also, an honorable mention of 5.9" at MDW CO-OP. Final snowfall totals 4.4" - ORD T - RFD …2025/26 Season Snowfall... 28.6" - ORD 23.9" - RFD