Chicago Storm

Outside of Friday, it didn't make it into the 90's across the area for the rest of the weekend. High temps from Friday are below... 92 MDW 91 ORD 91 Ex-Home 90°+ day tally for the year... 21 - MDW17 - RFD16 - Ex-Home13 - Current Home13 - ORD

Living and dying by the HRRR too much. This is how it goes with hot start CAMS. Regarding the latter portion, there is a fair amount of capping across IA. The t’storm that you referenced that was previously in N IA was undercut by surging outflow from the main cluster moving through the LSE area.

Seems like a good call to have stayed enhanced, at least for now. There’s a lot of modified air over S WI/N IL/N IN/S MI, with an OFB pushing west and reinforcing in across SW WI and NW IL. We’ll see how it shakes out with time, but it could mean the maximized potential is in a small corridor across portions of NE IA/S WI/N IL.

I’m out camping in NW IL this weekend, at White Pines State Park (Near Oregon, IL). Didn’t see the same extent of training activity that the Chicago metro area did overnight/this morning, but did end up in a severe t’storm warning around 4:15AM with a stronger t’storm, and had a few other smaller t’storms nearby earlier this morning. The aforementioned severe t’storm produced 50-60MPH winds, marble size hail and a great light show.

Had a brief radar sig in southern portions of Naperville.

Final high temps for Thursday across the area... 94 MDW 92 ORD 91 RFD 92 Ex-Home 90°+ day tally for the year... 20 - MDW17 - RFD15 - Ex-Home13 - Current Home12 - ORD

That’s a good one. I’d go with the ORD option, just because it’s the easier of the two. Now if you move the bars to 103 STL and 95 ORD, the STL option would be my pick.

This is the least surprising possibility of the year.

Supercell over Lake Co has had a bit of loose rotation, and is about to move out over the lake.

Re: Temps yesterday under-performing... Looks like it was due to a combination of DP's being a few degrees higher, and a change in mixing depths. DVN soundings show mixing was deeper there on Monday compared to yesterday.

KPWA (OKC Wiley Post Airport) is still sitting at 100 as of 11PM.

Those ended up being the final numbers for today. Yesterday it was only MDW/PWK/UGN (lol) to hit 90+, and today it was only MDW/ORD/PWK/UGN (lol) to do it. 90°+ day tally for the year... 19 - MDW16 - RFD14 - Ex-Home12 - Current Home11 - ORD

It is, but with a lot of convection around as well.

No shot at option #1, which isn’t fully what the 12z Euro shows anyway.

The Fri-Sun timeframe is looking interesting as we get closer. Definitely better ridge placement compared to the 4th of July week period, which likely will help things a bit.

MDW the only location of note to get over 90 today, with a high of 91. 90°+ day tally for the year... 18 - MDW16 - RFD14 - Ex-Home12 - Current Home10 - ORD

I'm guessing you'll adjust a bit given what both locations are topping out at today.

And we already have an answer… Currently MDW is ahead of ORD by 4°, and ahead of all other metro sites by 3-7°.

A lot of over-mixing there. The GFS has done horribly in the short range with that across the Plains.

It hit 103 in STL today. 3rd 100+ day of the year.

I somehow missed that gem. LOT doesn’t even have precip in the grids right now, let alone t’storms. Based on current guidance, that’s the way to go for now. I was once told by someone well known that the SPC is “The best at what they do”. Kind of comical, really.

Not surprising, odds were always against it. Euro, NAM and 3km NAM did especially bad. Just 18-24 hours ago they had the SLP moving from WI down into N IL, and instead it’s well west, dropping south between OMA and DSM. HRRR and other guidance score a win with this one.

accurate is an understatement here.

Time for an update, though there's really not much to update... Things have gone fairly close to expectations over the past few weeks, since the above update in late June. Looking forward, the next few weeks through the end of the month don't look too significantly different from the pattern we are in/have been in. There will continue to be persistent troughing in the vicinity of the GOA on down into the PAC NW...Which is a continuation of what has been occurring the past few weeks. It does appear the persistent ridging that has been seen the past few weeks in W and/or C Canada will tone down, so that is one change. Persistent troughing will also continue across the Hudson/Greenland/Great Lakes/Northeast regions as well, with a bit of ridging at times popping up around part of Greenland/Arctic regions...All of which is also a continuation of what has been occurring the past few weeks as well. All in all, this will continue to lead to a lot of what we have been seeing already this month... The main ridge/heat dome will continue to be centered across the Inter-Mountain West/Central and Southern Plains, and possibly into the Southeast at times. This will continue to keep most of this sub-forum in a more northwestly flow pattern, with an average to active weather pattern. This also means the most consistently hot temperatures will continue to be limited to the far southwestern portions of the sub-forum, with hotter conditions elsewhere being short lived ahead of passing storm systems.

under. definitely going to have mixing concerns.