Chicago Storm

the climate non-sense in every thread has gotten old quick.

read more, post less.

As mentioned a few days ago, the seasonal demise of the SPV continues to be on the horizon, and earlier than average. This is a warming to demise evolution.

like any other winter, nothing new there.

Several things to watch as we head towards the conclusion of February... Warmest February's 1. 39.0° - 1882 2. 38.7° - 1998 3. 38.0° - 2017 4. 37.5° - 1954 5. 37.3° - 1877 6. 37.1° - 1930 7. 36.6° - 2024 (Thru 2/18) 8. 36.5° - 1878 9. 35.8° - 1976 10. 35.6° - 1931 Least Snowy February's 1. T - 2024 (Thru 2/18) 1. T - 2017 1. T - 1998 1. T - 1987 5. 0.3" - 1996 5. 0.3" - 1921 7. 0.4" - 1995 8. 0.4" - 1931 9. 0.5" - 1915 10. 0.9" - 1922 Driest February's 1. 0.06" - 1877 2. 0.10" - 2024 (Thru 2/18) 3. 0.13" - 1920 4. 0.19" - 2003 5. 0.25" - 1969 6. 0.33" - 1958 7. 0.38" - 1947 7. 0.38" - 1921 9. 0.41" - 1995 9. 0.41" - 1982

The lake likely added up to 6-10” in NE IL.

Yea, guidance has backed off of showing a full blown SSWE, but we are most definitely seeing significant stratospheric warming. The effects are and will be similar to that of an actual SSWE, with high latitude blocking. However, given the pattern alignment and the lack of MJO support, it is unlikely to bring any consistent, significant, noteworthy, or interesting wintry weather to these parts, at least for the foreseeable future.

I’ve been waiting to hit mid-month, and now that we have, this thread is about to get cookin’…

solid february we’re having.

Chicago/O'Hare had a high temperature of 56° on Friday, which tied the record high temperature for the date of 56°, which was set in 1886.

Chicago/O'Hare had a high temperature of 56° on February 9th, which tied the record high max temperature for the date of 56°, which was set in 1886.

Ah, good ole useless weather politics at play yet again.

can definitely tell you’re new here.

Had a storm brush by here at ORD a short time ago. It produced a very brief burst of 0.50” hail. There is a corridor of several reports of 0.50” to 1.00” hail from SW to SE to ENE of here.

Obviously there has been some severe, but if dew points had gotten as high as the outlier guidance had shown, things would have been off to the races today.

Now there's a tor warning and a brief tornado report. Activity is working into an area with cooler temps/higher dew points, thus smaller spreads.

It's high based from all reports from those on it. Nearby OBS is 60/47, so makes sense.

Regarding today across IA/IL/WI... Not too surprising, but the four-some of models that were most enthused with today have been too high with dew points across the target area. The HRRR, RAP, FV3, and RRFS had been consistently advertising a solid area of low-mid 50's dew points developing across the target area. However, in reality dew points are running several degrees behind those projections, only in the mid-upper 40's as of 2PM.

As is always the case, this thread is for short term activity that isn't thread worthy and medium range potential.

I've been busy with other things, so haven't been able to focus on or put out any thoughts on the long range as of yet. Hopefully I'll have something out in the next day... But, for now... -I've seen some on social media trying to compare this upcoming period to what we saw in early-mid January. However, the setup on the large scale has differences when factoring everything in, so the outcome shouldn't be expected to be the same. -Significant stratospheric warming is on the horizon. The Euro suggests this period of warming could be a full on SSWE, and could be the one that leads to the demise of the SPV for the season. -The MJO appears as though it does not want to play ball, looking to stay in warmer phases and the COD during this period. -This last two points regarding the SSW and MJO likely means it'll be more of a battle this go around. -Based on the positioning of everything, temps will likely be more of a rollercoaster mix of below/seasonal/above. -The pattern is likely to be active across the CONUS, with a W/NW flow. We'll see a constant parade of disturbances/troughs break off Bering Sea/Aleutian/Pacific mean troughing, then skimming across the CONUS.

About as great of a start to February as you can get. 55° at ORD currently, 1° off the record high for today.

don’t worry, i’m a falcons fan. it could be worse…

Best weather day of the month today.

detroit peeps, you alive and alright?

i've been waiting for a quality beavis meltdown this winter. took a week of fog, rain, and rapid snow melt in the wake of our usual two weeks of winter to make it happen, but here we are.