LibertyBell

I like 2012 too, actually 1973, 2007 and 2012 but I'm very cautious about using 70s analogs here, we get a lot more precip on the east coast than we used to back then. I noticed 1973, 1988 and 1999 mentioned in an earlier post by you (on this page), I think you stated that you didn't like 1999 though but 1988 was on there. 2012 might be the best match of all, but as you'll notice in the climate subforum, sea ice was on a rapid rise at this point in 2012, and we're really lagging behind in 2020. I'd give a slight nod to 2007 over the other years that were mentioned.

didn't we switch back to a cold and snowy March after the 80 in February though?

Going with a combo of 1973-74 and 2007-08, what kind of a winter would that yield? Have to be careful about 70s winters as that was an era with much less overall precip than what we have now.

yes, this is something I noticed a few years ago, but the relationship was stronger before the 1995-96 winter.

this storm at the end of the month, the models have been waffling back and forth on it, do you see it more like 1991 or 2012? I see your list of analogs had 1973, 1988, 1999 and 2007 in it, and none of those had a large storm at the end of the month. Personally I'd throw out 1988 and 1999 as they are 11 yr peak solar cycle years, and go with 1973 and 2007.

Lots of stuff here

SST temp above normal is good for bombing storms, if we get that then those storms can drag down colder air as they bomb out. I've seen plenty of years with cold SST that turned into dud winters (a la 89-90)

2 out of 3 aint bad..... 1995-96 and 2010-11 vs 2007-08 wait I thought you meant la ninas after el ninos lol those seem to be somewhat better than el ninos after la ninas

better than 1972-73 at any rate lol- la ninas after el ninos seem to be pretty good....whats the story on el ninos that follow la ninas, are they also good?

did you see this Chris?

Do you think Phoenix can have half their days reach 100 degrees this year, Don? They have to get to 183. What's the latest they've hit it?

This is worse than 2012 was.

Some illuminating posts from Climate Ben about climate change and the perils of industrial agriculture and the role it plays in the current mass extinction: https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1287482989639880706 https://twitter.com/ClimateBen/status/1317414094010486788

from reading a list of possible analogs in the main forum's enso state thread, 2007-08 was a big analog being used. On the positive side, they also mentioned an increasing possibility of an el nino after this winter, and this might be the last of the la nina winters for awhile.

I dont get why all these people in Minnesota are so excited about snow....it's supposed to snow there. Dont have a coronary because you got 5 inches of snow, that's ho-hum and you should expect it.

Probably more snow than last winter but still way below normal. I predict an average winter temp around 38.5 with less than 20 inches of total snowfall, probably more like between 10-15.

I think we need a category above the relatively tame "warmer than average" If a season is +3 or more compared to the 30 year average it should be called a historic torch. Also I wouldn't use a 30 year average as that moves, we should use the whole period (or at least 1950 onwards) to compare it against what our climate "used to be."

this does seem like one of those winter events.....the back end always does better over Suffolk county in those lol

Better than 33 and rain though ;-)

Thanks for the 2005 list, Walt! I didn't remember the unnamed storm...that year was so wild that we had tropical activity right to the end of December!

Thanks! Final totals around 1.5, Don?

you actually want warmer than normal SST to get storms bombing out more quickly, when they bomb out they drag down colder air from the continent.

fixed in the para GFS check it out