LibertyBell

Isn't this the worst direction for N.O. though? I always thought that storm surge flooding is worst for N. O. when storms pass just to their east and keep the city under a northerly flow, so they get surge from the lake. N. O. is too far away from the GoM to get a lot of surge from the south.

This is basically a Cat 3, the weird SS threshold of 111 notwithstanding. That scale needs to be rounded to the closest 5 mph just like the measurements are. It's a Cat 3.

and now I'm going to go off on the SS scale. There is literally no reason for Cat 3 to begin at 111 mph. No one measures winds at this speed- this is a Cat 3. They need to round out Cat numbers to 5 mph intervals....Cat 3 begins at 110 mph.....no reason for the weird number "111".

this could be a Cat 3 at LF a direct hit from a Cat 3 there is no picnic

regardless this is going to bring the growing season and allergy season to an abrupt end. YAY

isn't this just flurries and snow showers coming in with the passage of the arctic front?

ouch! this would be a lock for below freezing lows areawide.....do you have a similar map showing the lows Monday and Tuesday morning? Typically if the highs are 45 or below, the lows are guaranteed to be below freezing with clear skies.

Well, as you know, we can't go from 60 to 0 on a dime so I suspect there's a consensus developing about the transition curve....is it following along the IPCC guidelines (50% by 2030, 90% by 2040 and 100% by 2050, if I remember correctly)?

also big difference between the 1994 el nino and the one we had last year.

Yeah thats why Jan 2016 was so special.....probably the largest snowfall I will ever see.

is 2050 the latest any nation has committed to, Don?

it also ended earlier than expected. In the middle of the afternoon here

ridges on the west and east coasts with a sharp trough in between?

3 inches in Lynbrook? It was more like 1.5 inches also confirmed at JFK

I saw the NYC discussion on that storm....someone should've posted them here- 6-10 inches was predicted for NYC! Ended up with 3" there and 1.5" here near JFK but 6" as close by as the Bronx and Newark. Probably the only time NYC will ever have a winter storm warning in October lol- then again we said that 30 inches would never again be predicted for NYC after the Jan 2015 debacle and then we had it again exactly one year later in Jan 2016 and that time it actually verified at JFK lol. October 2011 reminds me in many ways of the April Fools Day storm in 1997. NYC ended up being the Fool lol..... 8-16 was predicted and we ended up with 1-2.

Which of these was the most historic event- October 2011, April 1982 or May 1977? I guess it depends on the location.....

We may never see a winter storm warning in NYC again in October lol.....then again back in Jan 2015 Upton had a projected snowfall map with 30" of snow right over NYC and that was a big fail and we said we'd never see that again either and one short year later, in Jan 2016, the 30" maps were back and this time they verified (at JFK)

Ray if I remember correctly, it was 1.5" at JFK where I was at that time. 3" at Central Park and around 6" in the Bronx. Double digits were as close by as Bridgeport with ruined Halloween.....

lol had that same slop on the south shore of Long Island. I'm in the Poconos for this one at around 2,000 ft

I was surprised to see 1.5" inches of snow with that all the way to the south shore of Western Long Island. Might not see anything like that again in our lifetimes....then again who knows?

what about 2011 as an analog? Looks like this storm might produce snow in the northeast too, first here in October since 2011....

wow I thought 1933-34 was one of the most extremely cold winters here in NY, looks like most of the rest of the country west of here wasn't cold at all.

Uncle has any place around the city had 30" snow depth? I think it might have been Newark in 1994 after 2 storms and JFK in 2016 because we recorded over 30" from one storm?

I see the AGW crowd coming out on Twitter lol.

wild, I had completely forgotten about that! Chris, I remember you came up with a logical reason why a snow event in late October or November might result in winters with low snowfall in some years? It was because the atmosphere in our region takes awhile to recover before a notable wintry event can happen again, especially in the early part of the season? So this sometimes means a lackluster December, which can get winter off on the wrong foot, and then you have a long period of time before the first true winter event occurs- this happened in 11-12 as well as 12-13. And a couple of years ago too, when we had that surprise mid November storm. We had long snowless periods following all three of those very early storms. And especially in la nina like patterns a bad December doesn't bode well for a snowy winter.....