LibertyBell

yes this like the "junior edition" do you think both the 1982-83 and the 1997-98 super el ninos had a similar long lasting effect? also, why is it our summers haven't been as hot since then (in terms of 90 degree highs), maybe we've gotten wetter since also?

IMO all major roads should be shut down in advance if we have a major crippling ice storm.

but Walt another factor must be that those storms are still over the ocean and perhaps not properly sampled yet

yes, furthering the 1993-94 analogy, after the big storms at the beginning of February we basically nickled and dimed our way to 50" the rest of that winter we were nickeling and diming it before those events that season too lol

the problem is none of next week's storms are properly sampled yet as they are all still over the open water

the fascinating thing about the MJO is that it originates in the Indian Ocean doesn't it- and the Indian Ocean is warming more rapidly than any other ocean on earth?

what ended up being a bad winter for us lol

which I think we can convincingly show there is no such thing as a "nina look" because there are many different factors that define a pattern....nina "look" was awesome for us in 95-96 and 10-11 wasn't it but of course there is no rationality or reasoning with an enso fundamentalist

well JFK had 40 inches that winter, maybe you're re-adjusting your numbers downward because you had less than 30" in the Jan 2016 blizzard? Although I think you might have hit it because it should've run west-east right through your area.

did you measure it yourself or are you using JFK numbers?

it's like saying the world isn't round because it's flat at the poles lol.

This event being discussed this week having frozen precip going all the way to the Gulf Coast reminds me of it, but isn't nearly of the same magnitude.

There's strong evidence that these "looks" dont really apply....they broadbrush patterns. If you look at the top 10 winters of all time, you'll see them range all across the board. And if you look at the bottom 10 winters, they also range all across the board LOL. Also, it wont be the second half of February, if anything it'll just be the last 9 days of the month, a 28 day month, which means just the last third of the month. These ENSO fundamentalists annoy me, they're almost as irrational as religious fundamentalists.

I'm surprised too, I think NYC went over 40" in both years....JFK also went over 40" in 2015-16

that all time record was just before the historic blizzard wasn't it? The one which caused measurable snow in New Orleans and Tampa and 34" at Cape May?

I'd say 70% odds we get to 40" even with this "milder" outcome just because of the frequency of storms and they dont need to be all or even mostly snow to get us there. 93-94 was like this way which is what most people forget. Only two storms that entire winter were all snow. It was the frequency of storms that got NYC to 50"+ also only one storm that winter had double digit snowfall.

it'll probably hit 40 inches this season for NYC even if we have a lot of snow to mix scenarios.....we'll pick up a 2 inch storm here and a 2 inch storm there and that will be enough to get us to 40 inches and that's even if we get nothing in March.

we're above average snowfall....could still hit 40" in the city.

Yes, I'm already going in with the assumption that we've probably already seen the largest storm of the season. I'd put that at 90%...anything from here on out is gravy since we're already at or above average snowfall for the season. We've had three storms of over 6" of snowfall, that's more than we expected to begin with.

looks like we've probably had our biggest snowstorm of the season already. it's going to be extremely difficult to top the early February event

by the way some are mistakenly thinking the 10% reduction in fossil fuels is actually causing the abnormal cold we are seeing this month LOL I'm sure many in Texas will be thinking that when Dallas goes below zero next week.

the idea of increasing air pollution isn't one that I find particularly exciting lol....also what do aerosols do to the ozone layer?

I have news for you, corporatism is just as bad as communism ever was.

the latest EC was very snowy, Walt? Weird that it was so quiet on here with no one posting about it

1996 was an underrated cold winter....people keep talking about how mild it was after the blizzard but they forget how extreme the cold got in many parts of the country in February. Minnesota had their all time state record of -60 in Feb 1996. Impressive come back winter after what happened in January.