LibertyBell

it's 8 pages here at the link Forky posted https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01097-4.epdf?sharing_token=qWMQcnRcVRZQmZ_yahYbd9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0ODQw4Na6S4LwvIIwjZ_S3NdBoG6pi8c5NBfIwoUKp1VK_OHHszXMnB3OMoyz8L8emOhG-hoDsJyn1YMubz_IampYbIRg_8P9vjnfIPPzRQwm6m9BfwEGfoLu0JsB4E2trSfyu4r947mOz1oZQlyxQxZLxaMkEINR4Wt7XEIrPrRkahci-lKgCSTZahFzlH7wM%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com It says 21 pages, but after page 8 there's a long list of sources and other research listed, the actual paper is the first 8 pages of the PDF file. Also, I just heard that there's new research coming out of the IPCC tomorrow that convincingly connects excessive wild fires to climate change. I mean we all knew this is the case, but it's nice to have it in print.

it's going to be interesting to see where that "eye" ends up at our latitude. what exactly is supposed to be keeping this thing from going straight north? not like we have any kind of blocking here lol we're in a southerly flow.

it's 8 pages and includes a bunch of graphs and maps, so it's plenty.

conclusion is interesting At a confidence level of 0.05, one would expect to obtain an apparently significant positive trend in only 1 out of 20 test realizations by chance, if there were in fact no underlying trend. Although higher numbers of significant EWS are obtained for the CMIP models, these findings still raise concern regarding whether state-of-the-art climate models would be skilful in predicting a forthcoming AMOC collapse. This is in agreement with previous results showing that the present AMOC mode is too stable in state-of-the-art models9, most likely due to an underestimation of the freshwater export from the northern Atlantic Ocean, caused by errors in the salinity fields and insufficient model resolution12. The high-resolution, eddy-permitting HadGEM3-GC2 model, which was used to establish the suitability of the SST-based AMOC indices employed here51, constitutes a major step forward concerning a more accurate representation of the AMOC and its stability12,14. A continuous evaluation of new model versions in terms of AMOC indices and their EWS will be subject to future research. In particular, for models with excessively stable AMOC, one would not expect to observe EWS, and the results presented here could therefore be used to identify observational constraints for climate models. In simulations with a coupled AOGCM with hosing-enforced AMOC collapse, EWS in terms of rising variance and AC1 have been revealed41. The evolution of the AC1 prior to AMOC collapse in the simulations of the latter study (see fig. 4c there) is very similar to the evolution of the AC1 of the observation-based indices investigated here (Figs. 3g,h and 4c and Extended Data Figs. 3g,h, 4g,h, 5g,h, 7g,h and 8g,h). The EWS revealed here for observation-based AMOC indices thus behave exactly like corresponding signals in comprehensive model simulations prior to an AMOC collapse. Note that, in the model hosing experiment41, the AMOC collapses even before the AC1 reaches the critical value AC1c = 1 (corresponding to λc = 0; Methods) because the fluctuations push the AMOC out of the weakly stable state already before it ceases to exist. Similar observations have been made also in more recent hosing experiments53. The results presented here hence show that the recently discovered AMOC decline during the last decades is not just a fluctuation related to low-frequency climate variability or a linear response to increasing temperatures. Rather, the presented findings suggest that this decline may be associated with an almost complete loss of stability of the AMOC over the course of the last century, and that the AMOC could be close to a critical transition to its weak circulation mode.

If there's going to be a paste, might as well paste from the summary of the paper itself The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major ocean current system transporting warm surface waters toward the northern Atlantic, has been suggested to exhibit two distinct modes of operation. A collapse from the currently attained strong to the weak mode would have severe impacts on the global climate system and further multi-stable Earth system components. Observations and recently suggested fingerprints of AMOC variability indicate a gradual weakening during the last decades, but estimates of the critical transition point remain uncertain. Here, a robust and general early-warning indicator for forthcoming critical transitions is introduced. Significant early-warning signals are found in eight independent AMOC indices, based on observational sea-surface temperature and salinity data from across the Atlantic Ocean basin. These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition.

It makes sense because the flow of weather systems themselves have slowed down, and the prime evidence of that are these high precip total "bombs" we're getting on a regular basis. And there is a verified feedback mechanism between the atmosphere and the oceans, so it would be logical to expect the ocean currents to slow down and weaken too.

Thats crazy the Pac NW is having the summer from hell over there. Extremes usually beget extremes so maybe they'll follow this up with an extremely cold and snowy winter over there? That would be good to build up the snowpack out there, which the West sorely needs.

lol it's not even raining here though

Time to get you BANNED Moderators notified of this inmate who escaped the asylum and needs to be locked up again- preferably in a padded room. This is your new climate, like it or not.

Learn to spell before you try to communicate in here or anywhere else for that matter, duck. Another one of those mentally incompetent flat earth climate catastrophe deniers, I see. Rather ironic, considering where you come from.

Stink bugs too I think? I had never seen one before a few years ago and now I even see these alien looking creatures in my house, let alone outside. Is this another one of those cheap imports?

the sun has been out here.....

I wish there was some kind of isotherm map that shows which places get it at the same time. I'm 2 miles north of the barrier islands, I'm south of Sunrise Highway though, but only by a 5 minute drive. So the JFK ASOS gets the seabreeze (and winter changeover line) a little before Sunrise Highway gets it too?

Where did these come from? Maybe a chemical treatment will be developed, although I'm not very fond of pesticide use, especially with what we learn about them years later.

This would be crazy if this was happening in winter. Basically a narrow area of heavy precip and almost nothing on either side.

Oh this is awesome placement! But it still seems to underperform on snowfall measurements lol. Unless the snowfall is measured at a different part of the airport? I notice that my temps don't stabilize as quickly as JFK's do on seabreeze days, we usually hold onto hotter temps for about an hour or two longer. I guess living in an urban part of SW Nassau with lots of buildings close together could hold off the seabreeze longer than the open area surrounding JFK?

I'd go with the NWS forecast, recent history suggests they are right to be conservative with this.

well I'm taking some online flying lessons (dont ask why- I'm bored lol) and I can attest to how even slightly different temperature/pressure conditions can affect how planes fly. I was looking at it more from a perspective that we should have multiple sensors at different parts of the airport to more accurately affect local climate, especially since some of the other data I look at from local weather stations may not be very accurate. JFK also seems to consistently underdo on snowfall totals.

Chris, does it look like the hottest of the weather will be between Wednesday and Saturday and then a drop off after that?

Cap of the heat around 95, Walt? and will the peak of the heat end by Saturday the 14th?

I keep wondering if the days are getting perceptibly shorter lol

Peak heat near 95?

Good points! I wonder if this slowdown is also responsible for more TCs moving northerly and even northwesterly into the coast that has occurred since then as well as our pattern of intense coastal huggers we have seen in the last few winters?

weenies are cheering because they think this will result in colder and snowier winters

it seems like the problems started when the ASOS system was installed, so what was the system we had before ASOS and why was it more accurate (I also see all the unknown precip type reports and bad wind reports we have thanks to the ASOS. What was the purpose of switching to ASOS- haven't they heard if it's broke dont "fix" it?)