LibertyBell

Thank goodness, so this is another case of the models thinking that the southern part of Long Island is in the ocean (probably wont happen for another 50 years or so lol.) We also see this in snowfall prediction algorithms. SW winds usually get us to 90 before the sea breeze kicks in from July to September.

Must be a Suffolk County thing, Nassau County has had plenty of rain, my pond has been overflowing and my mold allergies have been awful. I don't follow Suffolk County weather because I haven't been out there since 2019 and no media reports on Suffolk County rainfall totals. I just get the stuff for NYC and the surrounding airports. We've had rain here on 5 weekends (at least one day of the weekend at any rate) since the beginning of July. Dry went away here when June ended.

The rain was light and showery here and it was interspersed with partial sunshine. Back to overcast so more rain may be coming.

I thought that was too rainy for you. I like dry and hot low humidity and blue skies.

it's always the weekend though lol But hadn't we already had a very rainy July? why is the rain so needed now after nearly a foot of rain fell in July?

thats weird my house in the poconos at 2000 ft will be hotter than my house on long island. Isn't the water supposed to hot enough by now that the wind direction doesn't have a significant impact on hot temps? This looks much more like a late spring pattern.

Walt, do you have a rainfall map for Long Island? It's actually raining here again and windy.

Looks like peak 90 degree heat will be Wednesday through Friday with some cooling in time for next weekend.

That sensor went bad for 2010 lol. I know JFK had 10 95 degree days in 2010. Do you have the JFK list too?

Didn't we have another one which had 2 big storms, one in early January and one in March? It was a couple of years ago. The one in early January was a verified blizzard, a mini version of the Jan 2016 blizzard (about half as long with half the snowfall amounts of that.) We had wall to wall white out conditions all day.

Well Don it's raining here again, looks like that forecast of all day and all night rain may come true. Quite windy too.

What was it that kept the storm from coming north? There hasn't been much blocking around here.

Funny thing is normal snowfall has been rare and it's either been one extreme or the other. With the types of snow events we get too.

and isn't this winter going to be a neutral after la nina?

Don how much rain fell? I saw a weird forecast of rain showers all day, heavy at times, up to half an inch and rain right into tomorrow morning? That can't be right- the sun already came out here.

it's 8 pages here at the link Forky posted https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01097-4.epdf?sharing_token=qWMQcnRcVRZQmZ_yahYbd9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0ODQw4Na6S4LwvIIwjZ_S3NdBoG6pi8c5NBfIwoUKp1VK_OHHszXMnB3OMoyz8L8emOhG-hoDsJyn1YMubz_IampYbIRg_8P9vjnfIPPzRQwm6m9BfwEGfoLu0JsB4E2trSfyu4r947mOz1oZQlyxQxZLxaMkEINR4Wt7XEIrPrRkahci-lKgCSTZahFzlH7wM%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com It says 21 pages, but after page 8 there's a long list of sources and other research listed, the actual paper is the first 8 pages of the PDF file. Also, I just heard that there's new research coming out of the IPCC tomorrow that convincingly connects excessive wild fires to climate change. I mean we all knew this is the case, but it's nice to have it in print.

it's going to be interesting to see where that "eye" ends up at our latitude. what exactly is supposed to be keeping this thing from going straight north? not like we have any kind of blocking here lol we're in a southerly flow.

it's 8 pages and includes a bunch of graphs and maps, so it's plenty.

conclusion is interesting At a confidence level of 0.05, one would expect to obtain an apparently significant positive trend in only 1 out of 20 test realizations by chance, if there were in fact no underlying trend. Although higher numbers of significant EWS are obtained for the CMIP models, these findings still raise concern regarding whether state-of-the-art climate models would be skilful in predicting a forthcoming AMOC collapse. This is in agreement with previous results showing that the present AMOC mode is too stable in state-of-the-art models9, most likely due to an underestimation of the freshwater export from the northern Atlantic Ocean, caused by errors in the salinity fields and insufficient model resolution12. The high-resolution, eddy-permitting HadGEM3-GC2 model, which was used to establish the suitability of the SST-based AMOC indices employed here51, constitutes a major step forward concerning a more accurate representation of the AMOC and its stability12,14. A continuous evaluation of new model versions in terms of AMOC indices and their EWS will be subject to future research. In particular, for models with excessively stable AMOC, one would not expect to observe EWS, and the results presented here could therefore be used to identify observational constraints for climate models. In simulations with a coupled AOGCM with hosing-enforced AMOC collapse, EWS in terms of rising variance and AC1 have been revealed41. The evolution of the AC1 prior to AMOC collapse in the simulations of the latter study (see fig. 4c there) is very similar to the evolution of the AC1 of the observation-based indices investigated here (Figs. 3g,h and 4c and Extended Data Figs. 3g,h, 4g,h, 5g,h, 7g,h and 8g,h). The EWS revealed here for observation-based AMOC indices thus behave exactly like corresponding signals in comprehensive model simulations prior to an AMOC collapse. Note that, in the model hosing experiment41, the AMOC collapses even before the AC1 reaches the critical value AC1c = 1 (corresponding to λc = 0; Methods) because the fluctuations push the AMOC out of the weakly stable state already before it ceases to exist. Similar observations have been made also in more recent hosing experiments53. The results presented here hence show that the recently discovered AMOC decline during the last decades is not just a fluctuation related to low-frequency climate variability or a linear response to increasing temperatures. Rather, the presented findings suggest that this decline may be associated with an almost complete loss of stability of the AMOC over the course of the last century, and that the AMOC could be close to a critical transition to its weak circulation mode.

If there's going to be a paste, might as well paste from the summary of the paper itself The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major ocean current system transporting warm surface waters toward the northern Atlantic, has been suggested to exhibit two distinct modes of operation. A collapse from the currently attained strong to the weak mode would have severe impacts on the global climate system and further multi-stable Earth system components. Observations and recently suggested fingerprints of AMOC variability indicate a gradual weakening during the last decades, but estimates of the critical transition point remain uncertain. Here, a robust and general early-warning indicator for forthcoming critical transitions is introduced. Significant early-warning signals are found in eight independent AMOC indices, based on observational sea-surface temperature and salinity data from across the Atlantic Ocean basin. These results reveal spatially consistent empirical evidence that, in the course of the last century, the AMOC may have evolved from relatively stable conditions to a point close to a critical transition.

It makes sense because the flow of weather systems themselves have slowed down, and the prime evidence of that are these high precip total "bombs" we're getting on a regular basis. And there is a verified feedback mechanism between the atmosphere and the oceans, so it would be logical to expect the ocean currents to slow down and weaken too.

Thats crazy the Pac NW is having the summer from hell over there. Extremes usually beget extremes so maybe they'll follow this up with an extremely cold and snowy winter over there? That would be good to build up the snowpack out there, which the West sorely needs.

lol it's not even raining here though

Time to get you BANNED Moderators notified of this inmate who escaped the asylum and needs to be locked up again- preferably in a padded room. This is your new climate, like it or not.

Learn to spell before you try to communicate in here or anywhere else for that matter, duck. Another one of those mentally incompetent flat earth climate catastrophe deniers, I see. Rather ironic, considering where you come from.