LibertyBell

Oh I'm mostly talking about 10"+ events in December which seem to be very rare now. I was thinking of winters like 2014-15 where we get our first big snows around Jan 20th, that seems to be a common first date for our first big snow of the season.

thats artificial central park temperatures, at JFK we're now down to 32, the city's first freeze

Yup December seems to pretty much be lost as a winter month Since 2010's Boxing Day storm we haven't seen much winter in December.

This seems to be our regular pattern now, not really ENSO dependent. Isn't it true that over the past decade our winters have really kicked into high gear around January 20nd or so, no matter the ENSO state?

Being near a warming ocean will give it some boost.

warmer sea surface temps resulted in the 6 tornado outbreak last weekend on Long Island Maybe we will see a tornado pop up in the middle of a Yankees Red Sox game one of these days, that'd be fun!

I see our cold/snowy patterns seem to begin around Jan 20th

funny to see 1977 and 2014 on this list

how come we're not getting tornadoes like new england is getting? warmer to our north?

ah but we also had the very notable period of winter weather in January 1982 when we had the snowstorm that downed the plane in the Potomac. Wasn't that three straight days of measurable snow? We basically had two double digit snowstorms that season, one in January the other in April. I think we should adjust that total for our new climate, which is more moist, and we would have near normal snowfall totals (maybe even a little above.) That extra 2" you noted at the end there was a small storm after the April Blizzard which dropped about an inch at JFK

Lagos, Nigeria, holy shit, I would rather not be born than be born in what that city will turn into by 2100. It's already on the way there

Good news/bad news. Most of the world will have stabilized population by 2100 but Africa will still be experiencing exponential growth. We need to severely punish these nations if they continue to destroy tropical rain forests and drive species to extinction there. https://twitter.com/i/events/1461759673590329445 How Africa will become the center of the world’s urban future Growing at unprecedented rates, and shaped by forces both familiar and new, dozens of African cities will join the ranks of humanity’s biggest megalopolises between now and 2100. Several recent studies project that by the end of this century, Africa will be the only continent experiencing population growth. Thirteen of the world’s 20 biggest urban areas will be in Africa — up from just two today — as will more than a third of the world’s population. GIF via @washingtonpost

Ray what do you think of 2016-17 as an analog? Chris thinks thats a better analog than 2011-12 because it looks like we will have more NAO blocking than we did in 2011-12 and it will be more like 2016-17

air pollution is still the number one shortener of life on the planet, so tell that to places like India where they are now shutting down coal plants because people in Delhi can no longer breathe. On top of that technology is no panacea as it often harms the environment in the long term as the so-called green revolution did. The math is inexorable, you have a planet of finite size you cannot have one species multiply infinitely no matter what. It will destroy the planet and if you dont think the planet will fight back like every other time one species has dominated it you are sadly mistaken. But go ahead with your view point because it will just make humanity get destroyed faster-- and that will be a great thing for the planet.

also there is a mass extinction underway right now, I dont know where you get your data from but it's definitely wrong. They were right worrying about humans overpopulating and destroying the planet and yes it's slowed down in developed nations but we also have to worry about nations in Africa and polluting nations like India and China and also in South America where tropical rain forests are being burned or chopped down. These nations need to be severely punished for their transgressions even if that means cutting them off from the rest of the world like we did with NK and Iran.

Hey the green revolution was awful and the reasons why were detailed in a 2 hour documentary on PBS Borlaug himself specifically stated that it was only a short term goal and in the long run it was NOT the answer. The term "green" is also a misnomer as there is nothing "green" about using harmful pesticides and fertilizer to destroy the soil, which is what the farmers in vastly overpopulated and overpolluted nations like India are now finding out. Yes the population is supposed to stabilize at 10 billion according to the UN and that is barely livable as it is, but it should NEVER have been allowed to get to that point. Borlaug's "technology" has depleted and destroyed the soil in third world nations and they are going back to organic farming as they should have been doing all along. People should NOT be allowed to reproduce like viruses even if that means putting contraceptives in the water, because they also pollute like viruses.

wow this is amazing that the 2002-03 average winter temp was so close to 1993-94 yet 1993-94 gets so much more attention. We had more snow here in 2002-03 and the snowstorms (well PD2) was bigger and the snow season lasted longer too!

didnt get to freezing at JFK or SW Nassau either, but thats likely to happen next week

Having said what I said about getting most of our snow in 1 storm being a strong possibility this winter, I do have to put a little fly in this particular ointment.....the winter you're specifying, 2016-17, came after a super el nino, 2015-16 and la ninas following el ninos tend to be snowy dont they? I give the examples of 1995-96 and 2010-11

We can take a look at 2005-06 too, it was warm as hell but NYC still ended up with 40 inches of snow mostly courtesy of one big storm

isn't it equal chances of either a below or above normal snowfall winter even if temps are above normal? Thats another reason why it's a bad idea to use a Boston forecast for NYC. We have had, more than a few winters where we had an entire season's worth of snow in one storm. So you could actually have a 40 inch snowfall winter here with an average winter temp of 40 F. Boston can't have a winter where one storm makes up their entire yearly average like we can-- because their yearly average is 42 inches while ours is in the 20s. That actually makes it far easier for NYC to have above normal snowfall than it is for Boston. Just need one big storm to do it for us.

but 2002-03 was colder which shows why its underrated, and snowier and much longer too

what were the winter average temperatures in 1993-94 and 1995-96? 2002-03 being the coldest really brings home the point that it was so underrated. We had a snowy April too

enso only has a 20% impact on our weather, nao blocking is far more important. 2010-11 was another even stronger la nina with a lot of snow. There are other examples like 1955-56 and 2017-18

So I decided to read a piece that I know would be full of lies and excuses and it's laughable how dismissive this guy is of climate change, going so far as to say "there has been no increase of wild fires since 1985" I mean wtf.... his case for climate change "realism" is vastly unrealistic The Case for Climate-Change Realism | National Affairs