LibertyBell

2 questions, Don-- 1) I realize you said there is uncertainty but can the timeframe for a pattern change be ironed down to within a 5 day period (say between February 15-20)? 2) What are the chances of a big wintry storm before the pattern changes? Could it occur in the PD timeframe or would it have to be a little before that? We are in our climo best period for historic snowstorms (starts around Feb 5th and ends around Feb 20th).

lmao probably. Here's the ironic thing. I've been a lot more west (on I-80) than I have been north. I just looked at anything north of the GWB/Yankee Stadium as the Arctic Tundra lol.

were those patterns where the AO was negative and the NAO was positive? Didn't this storm also have a slightly negative AO and a positive NAO?

wow nice, the three winters I was looking at were 1960-61, 1993-94 and 2002-03

But that did diddly for us on the south shore because at JFK and here that "big storm" last Groundhog Day had less snow than this and was a mixed precip storm, I'd rather have all snow pure snow even at the same or somewhat lesser amount (and this one was bigger than anything we had last year here.) How do you compare this to 1993-94 when NYC had over 50 inches without a neg NAO or PD2 where we didn't have a neg nao either, I believe 2002-03 and 1960-61 both averaged out with a slightly positive NAO? Was 2014-15 another positive or neutral NAO winter? What about 2013-14? Why did we have so much mixing that winter?

How does it compare to Jan 1994? I cant imagine anything bigger than that. Can you compare freezing rain amounts for both storms and duration at JFK as well as temps?

Is that a fake moustache he has on? Anyways lol We had the same amount of snow as Ray did (a little over a foot.) Only the high banding areas got 20 inches plus.

I've never been to either so I'll take your word for it. I've actually never been north of Yankee Stadium or I-80/ GWB aside from my trips to Albany when I was a newspaper reporter covering the state capital.

according to Ray in the NE forum (he does it there too) he was dropped on his head in the snow a few too many times

I'm going to message Randy about him

Most of us coasties have had our seasonal snowfall for the entire winter already

and you had a big storm last week with over a foot of snow, you didn't need a negative NAO

Thats what I've been saying. lol

I see 100 degrees in your future this summer, I hope you have your a/c

But JFK almost always gets less than half the snowfall than the jackpot, no matter the situation. My main point being this.... NYC was never going to get 25 inches of snow. It's in a central location and jackpots are usually to the west or to the east or to the south. Look at what ACY got in January.... 33 inches. Now are we to assume that locations further south do better in a positive NAO? Of course not! And we had a negative NAO in December and all it got us was 0.3. A negative NAO is much less important for us than a west coast ridge, we need that above all else. We can't hope for perfection-- it's very rare that everything will line up perfectly, and quite frankly if there is one thing I had to pick wouldn't line up it's a negative NAO. We've had historic snowfall seasons and historic snowstorms without one (PD2 and 1993-94 and 1960-61 being cases in point.) And look how well ACY did in a positive NAO in January. We can't root or hope for perfection, because it rarely happens. I also question the value of the nao when we have south based blocks and east based blocks that do diddly for us. So rather than chasing ghosts, I'd rather have the sure thing-- which is a great Pacific. Everything else matters FAR less than that. Also, I choose not to compare JFK to ISP, because JFK would never get that kind of snowfall in any scenario unless we had a strong el nino. I choose to compare JFK against its own historical record....and for JFK getting over a foot of pure snow is an MECS. It was a great storm. Anyone from Brooklyn on east and south had a great storm and has absolutely nothing to complain or whine about.

February 1996 February 2006 and February 2020 beg to differ (of course they came after El Ninos)

I thought it was because of chasing the convection and the bifurcated low? Because honestly JFK is part of the city and did fine in the storm so we cant say that NYC needs a -NAO. NYC got over 50 inches of snow in 1993-94 with a +NAO too. It was by chance that Manhattan didn't do well in this storm, this storm could have easily been slightly to the west. This storm was a lot better than last year's so give me this pattern.

what if someone puts tarp over the snow?

good, it looks dirty

Well if there is a pattern change in the second half that would be the logical time to see another big snow storm and it's highly favored climate wise too

February 2015 isn't on this list? That's a surprise-- it was frigid and snowy.

This area doesn't get many serious ice storms (>0.50 inch) and the big ones we did get didn't really affect us that much around here, they're far worse for the South as I've been repeatedly saying and Abbott's incompetence and lack of regulation of methane companies (so-called "natural" gas) hasn't helped any. It's a good thing I remember pretty much everything I've ever seen or read...it comes in handy (especially for finding hidden patterns in even seemingly random things.) I even remember stuff I memorized back in middle school, like pi to 100 digits, the presidents (first middle and last names), the chemical elements, the constellations, square root of 2 to 100 digits and the Greek alphabet. I hope I die before I ever start to lose my memory.

one of my all time favorites. historic ice storm and power didn't even budge

Actually most of the snow is gone here already, the rain will only clean up the dirty snow piles.

What do you think of the mega solar flare stuff by the way? Do you think the sun noticeably changed during those historic events (as in, people could notice changes in it with their own eyes?)