LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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The last picture didn't upload properly so let's try it again.
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Total of 8 inches of a heavy wet snow in the Poconos, pretty heavy on the trees, putting them in a precarious position. There's also a layer of ice under the heavy wet snow, I think the bottom layer melted and refroze. It didn't stop falling until like 1 in the afternoon, it fell for over 24 hours since it started Friday morning.
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For now I'll say anything better than this season is good I might revisit that next season if it's 60 in December and raining lol
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I'll post some pics from today in the 3/11 thread. edit-- posted 4 to show what it looks like on the trees.
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two out of three isn't too shabby (82-83 and 15-16) vs 97-98 although other strong el ninos which weren't "super" have also been good like 57-58 It always depends on blocking if you dont have that enso doesn't matter, they'll all be bad.
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hold up lol, it snowed until 1 pm and a total of 8 inches, I'm afraid of losing some trees because the weight of the snow is so heavy on them. And there is ice under the snow, the snow is really wet and heavy so it looks like the bottom layer melted and refroze. Going down to 26 tonight, it's already 29.
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omg they already got 8 inches in that area that ended this afternoon
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lol brings back such "nice" memories of the 80s and early 90s. Even the Poconos won't get 6 inches from this will they-- especially the southern Poconos around Lake Harmony, at 2,000 ft asl?
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Yes halving those numbers still gets you to a foot or just over in the KPOU area.
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10:1 is not happening, halve these numbers
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it's like the different globals are taking their turns keeping our attention lol I don't think we have any chance of getting 6" of snow, but a 3-5 inch event is still pretty good, especially this season.
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halve that and still not bad
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Maybe in a way it's a good thing lol?
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EPS members with a 4" average getting to 50% is pretty interesting. The chances of a moderate impact here in terms of snowfall are still on the table.
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weak el nino is good for new england, we want closer to a strong one down here
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There are also other things that make a storm much more historic than raw snowfall numbers. I've mentioned December 1992. This storm can be historic in more impactful ways than snowfall so that should be watched for too.
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we've seen this chasing the convection scenario before
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I love stacked lows because it means we no longer have to deal with a pesky warm layer and it's going to be all snow as long as you're west of the surface low.
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yup such is the nature of very marginal late season events.
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Yeah like that one has twice as much on Long Island as in the city.
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It's more like 7:1 or 8:1 tops. Just to be on the cautious side, I halve the totals of those models.
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I can't believe I have to say this, but an "atmospheric river" isn't a real river (the geological definition of a river requires that it MUST be liquid!) but it's an easier way to visualize it.
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The Euro especially.
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Don, with this skewing going on, could we calculate the mode instead of the mean? I think that would be useful, as it often is with snowfall to cancel out the extreme members. I think we have a reasonable chance to stay below the 2001-02 snowfall figure, which was my least snowiest (I wasn't alive for 1972-73).
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that plus being overly optimistic on extremely marginal late season events
