LibertyBell

Was this the one with the whiteout conditions during the day? That looked like a true blizzard-- I didn't realize that it got all the way down to 950mb, I thought it was around 970mb.

Wow I actually know people in the Red Deer and Medicine Hat and Brooks area, they are definitely not used to this kind of cold there.

This is truly scary-- we've been focusing on an ice free arctic (and rightly so) but we've been ignoring the other big danger, which is a perennial tropical "season" that never ends....

Right, this needed change should have began in the 80s instead of now. I take harsher look at developing nations, I believe they should not be allowed to cause pollution just because we already did it-- there should be harsh economic penalties for any nation that continues to emit to the point where using fossil fuels becomes an economic nonstarter (this would be much easier if we had a strong world government which could punish even powerful nations like the US and China for the amount of pollution they cause, but that's a pipedream right now.)

Thanks, so is it your estimate that we'll peak around +2.0C and not get to +2.5C (maybe we'll peak between +2.2C and +2.3C?) I wonder how much of a lag effect there is between emissions peak and global temperate peak?

I will once again say that none of those arctic outbreaks were really that interesting because 90% of the time when you have such an outbreak, the pattern is suppressed and all you get is dry and cold.

Yes, I think Christmas 1980 was one of those days ! I can't even think of us ever reaching zero in December anymore! And how did we ever get to zero on Valentine's Day in 2016 in such a mild winter?

wow I wish we had some sort of realistic simulation that would show us what the 1938 hurricane was like in our local neighborhoods.

the majority of the 70s, 80s and the early and late 90s sounds a lot like what we have now. This period of rainy winters for us lasted for (more or less) 30 years or so, do we see the same cyclic change now and if so, is it going to take 30 years to get rid of it again?

so is this more of a case of capitalism winning or regulations finally having an effect? also, does this apply to us only? what about nations like China and India, aren't they increasing the usage of coal?

I don't know who would want an arctic outbreak without snow anyway, in 2023 we had two such arctic outbreaks and no snow in either of them. If you want snow, you want modified arctic air, not single digit cold.

I was in 4th grade during February 1983 and it was my first year on Long Island, the storm started on a Friday right before midwinter recess and we walked home from school, getting released an hour early lol. I don't have any memory of March 1984 for some reason.

a 2015-2016 type winter but about 2 degrees colder (because of a slightly less intense el nino) would be really nice, especially considering how many close calls there were that February (I remember the storm where the crane fell in NYC and also the Superbowl snowstorm.)

We already had an active tropical season with 20 storms lol (but only 1 landfall), how much more active can it get, do you think we could get 30 storms again? And do you think we could have a very hot summer too with 30+ 90 degree highs and maybe even a 100+ degree high or more (because of the el nino to la nina transition?)

It's going to cause a lot more mass migrations.... We've probably permanently exceeded +1.5C, so that first limit has already been breached, +2.0C is next.

We're hoping to exceed last year-- not a very high goal I know, but small steps lol.

Maybe two shots next week ;-)

This is a vicious circle feedback effect, so I do agree with him that 1.5C has for all intents and purposes been breached and 2.0C isn't far behind.

I think that's why you weighed 1983 and 2016 slightly less than the other ones? IMO a slightly colder 2016 would be the reason it wouldn't be a one hit wonder; besides the megablizzard we had several other storms (especially in February-- close to the superbowl if I remember right) that were VERY close to being big hits. One of them took down a big crane in NYC. So an enso not as extreme as 2015-16 could result in slightly colder temperatures in the east, which would be the reason it wouldn't be a one hit wonder.

1958 and 2010 are great calls by you, might want to add 2003 into the mix too ;-) 1958 was a strong el nino and 2003 and 2010 were close to being strong too (as I stated in my post above).

another strong el nino that needs to be looked at for this kind of pattern is 1957-58 fwiw 2002-03 wasn't that far away from being a strong el nino too (and 2009-10 also.)

there's a reason why this problem never got fixed but I forgot why? I think it had something to do with the fact that when they tried to fix it, it caused an excessive amount of tropical cyclone development on the model?

I think next Tuesday will be day 700? A nice round number to end it on!

what model does this use? or does it calculate the average of all the ensemble means?

wild to have 1996 as an analog during a strong el nino lol I see a bunch of interesting analogs in here both 1/4/96 and 2/1/96 wow and 1/1961 thrown in there too? as well as 1978