LibertyBell

Freedom of speech has and needs guard rails. Plenty of stupid social media posters get banned for it, I know because I'm one of the ones reporting them and getting them banned.

Yes, unfortunately most casual observers pay too much attention to the OP. Wasn't the Euro more accurate when it was only run out to 7 days? Can running a model longer than 7 days also influence its accuracy in less than 7 days?

Do you think this is at least a little bit of balancing the scales since DC hasn't consistently beaten NYC in snowfall since the late 80s and maybe the last few years is a sign that might be happening again Chris?

and 2010-11 wow I had snow up to my windows that winter!

It was 2002-03 through 2015-16 we had the big HECS.

We remember 2/6/10 here, nothing could ever be as extreme as that was! a Trace in Central Park, 1.5" at JFK and here.... 6" in southern Staten Island and 2 feet in Toms River!

whatever it is, it can't be any worse than 2/6/2010 lol

Toms River is central NJ and considered the southern limit of our subforum (and the southern limit of our local TV stations.)

If you were on the south shore in the late 80s then you remember this kind of pattern lol. We would have cold dry Januarys with storms hitting DC and Baltimore and then in February they would hug or cut and areas to our north would get hit.

But if DC gets more snowfall than NYC, that means we are actually reverting back to the late 80s snowfall pattern, Chris.

I think if people researched the late 80s, they would know that wasn't a matter of luck either, and the causes are the same now as they were then.

In case you haven't noticed, America isn't doing so well *sparky* This isn't the time to be bragging about this country.

Have you seen the state of this country? LOL Is America really for anyone anymore?

I like the general broadbrushing and probability forecasts the NWS does, it's much easier to forecast general temperatures as opposed to specific storms. In addition to that, I wonder if posting past analogs would also help. If anyone posted late 80s analogs, I think people would immediately know what we were dealing it-- at least those of us who lived through that time period. Such a situation where DC gets more snow than NYC isn't as uncommon as some think. It was much more common in the past, but it can still happen.

No one said that Long Island would be under 30 feet of ocean, but what we are definitely seeing is sunny day flooding, something that did not happen before. And it's not just Long Island it's happening on-- it's why military bases near the water are being moved 10+ miles inland. Norfolk and Charleston are prime examples of where this is happening.

Definitely limit OP to 7 days at most and past that ensembles + likely analogs. Trust me if someone said, hey, this is a late 80s pattern, all enthusiasm would have been curbed, especially for those who lived through that. I never bought into anything because I lived through 1989-90.

But Chris, it's not really information. Specific details are so inaccurate as to be absolutely worthless that far out. It's better to just show above or below normal temperatures and ban the posting of specific storms unless you're going to post analogs to the past (for which the late 80s are are a really good analog to now.) People will always get excited-- we all do. But the reality is, nothing can be known beyond 7 days except for general temperatures. It's why the NWS posts probability forecasts. We might not like them, but that's that can really be known that far out.

let's call out the irresponsible people who thought it was a good idea to extend models past 7 days, was this for more clicks?

we can regulate it, the government should ban all models past 7 days

I actually blame the people who run the models, why dont they stop running models after 7 days?

its actually normal for the middle atlantic to do better for stretches (see 80s).

this is what happened in 1989-90

cold and DRY* January

but it's normal

this is actually normal when you dont have many coastal storms. there are two primary west-east track, one is to our south the other to our north 1989-1990 had way more snow in DC too the 1980s were in general much snowier both to our south and to our north. Look up these storms Vet Day 1987 February 1989 December 1989 in that last one we got rain and thunderstorms while DC got snow