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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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I've always wondered if there is even a subtle connection between big solar storms and weather on Earth. Regardless, this seems to be the year of pronounced solar activity. If this continues into next year, I wonder if we might see something amazing during the total solar eclipse coming up then.
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Going tomorrow when it's going to be better weather. I think the clouds would have blocked me from seeing them last night regardless. If it's something that truly spectacular it will be seen from anywhere (barring clouds of course), the November 2001 Leonid storm was truly spectacular as was Comet Hale Bopp in 1997. Both were easily visible from Lynbrook. With the northern lights though you do need to be away from light pollution even for a really good display.
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you're excited!
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honestly I would MUCH rather have clear skies last night to see that gorgeous northern lights display the rest of the CONUS has been seeing.
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anyone in our area see any northern lights last night? I noticed there was a period of clearing between midnight and 3 am last night.
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I wonder if this entire year is going to be full of this activity (though they do always seem to be stronger around the equinoxes)
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wow they also had a big snowfall in March 1994?
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too much cloud pollution
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Thanks for the map I have been looking for something like that but I think it's way underdone for elevated regions of eastern PA, no way does MPO only average 30-36 inches of snow, it's at least twice that. Eastern PA near or over 2000 feet has to average at least 60 inches of snow and probably more like 70-75.
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even though that was a mild winter, aside from the February HECS it was known for late season snows, as it had JFK's latest accumulating snowfall on record, April 19-20, 1983, 1.5 inches
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1989 - Low pressure off the coast of Virginia brought heavy rain to the Middle Atlantic Coast States, and heavy snow to the Northern Appalachians. Cape Hatteras NC was soaked with 5.20 inches of rain in 24 hours, and snowfall totals in Vermont ranged up to 12 inches. Winds gusted to 52 mph at New York City. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - The storm system which produced heavy snow in the Lower Missouri Valley the previous day, spread heavy snow across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and the Middle Atlantic Coast Region. Snowfall totals of 2.2 inches at Philadelphia PA and 2.4 inches at Atlantic City NJ were records for the date. Up to six inches of snow blanketed southern Ohio. In the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, snow coated the blossoms of cherry trees which had bloomed in 80 degree weather the previous week. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) I dont remember either of these storms, Tony, did either of them produce accumulating snow in our area? I only remember the April 1990 minor event.
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Sunday is going to be awesome, get this Pacific crap out of here
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that was the one with the pink morning snow and 40:1 ratios!
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2002-03 was even colder (and snowier) than 1993-94, an A+ winter that doesn't get mentioned much
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it's going to be another dry spring and summer, time to pay the piper after all those wet years.
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why can't we have a block in place that holds off storms to the west? we always talk about other kinds of blocks, why can't there be a block that holds storms off to the west coast and prevents them from moving east?
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it was nice and sunny this morning with no clouds in sight :-)
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Global Average Temperature and the Propagation of Uncertainty
LibertyBell replied to bdgwx's topic in Climate Change
about the IPCC predictions, they were a little too conservative, or, put another way, the likely outcome is going to be on the more aggressive side of their predictions....I've noticed the timeline has moved up with each new report. -
Global Average Temperature and the Propagation of Uncertainty
LibertyBell replied to bdgwx's topic in Climate Change
https://www.theworldcounts.com/populations/world/10-billion-people People dont like to hear it, but either they change their way of life.... or else..... We are already over-exploiting the Earth biocapacity by 75 percent. Put differently, humanity uses the equivalent of 1.75 Earths to provide the natural resources for our consumption and absorb our waste. And the world population is growing by more than 200,000 people a day. 1.8005199599 Number of planet Earths we need To provide resources and absorb our waste How many people can the Earth sustain? 3.7 billion? Our current way of life caused humanity to hit the Earth’s limit already around 1970 when the world population was 3.7 billion - less than half the population of today. Since the 1970s, we have been living in so-called “ecological overshoot” with an annual demand on resources exceeding what Earth can regenerate each year. In other words, we are taking an ecological “loan” and asking future generations to pay it back. 7.7 billion? Is 7.7 billion people the sustainable limit? A meta-analysis of 70 studies estimates the sustainable limit to the world population to 7.7 billion people. World population as of 2020: 7.8 billion... 10 billion? Can Earth sustain 10 billion? According to an article in Live Science, many scientists think that Earth has a maximum capacity to sustain 9-10 billion people. One of these scientists is the Harvard sociobiologist Edward O. Wilson. He believes the Earth can sustain 10 billion - but it requires changes: "If everyone agreed to become vegetarian, leaving little or nothing for livestock, the present 1.4 billion hectares of arable land (3.5 billion acres) would support about 10 billion people" - Edward O. Wilson, Harvard sociobiologist. We need to change It’s clear that whatever the maximum number of the people the Earth can sustain, we need to change! If we continue our current consumption patterns we will slowly but steadily use up the planet’s resources. If nothing changes we will need two planets by 2030. 1970: 3.7 billion people = 1 planet Earth 2030: 8.5 billion people = 2 planet Earths 2057: 10 billion people = ??? planet Earths According to the global Footprint Network, in 2030 - when the global population has reached an estimated 8.5 billion people - we will need 2 planets to support the human population. Imagine how many we’ll need when we reach 10 billion people... But of course, change is possible! The UN paper: “How Many People? A Review of Earth’s Carrying Capacity” presents three different routes of change: The “bigger pie” scenarium: Technical evolutions in green energy and materials efficiency and reuse mean that we can get more out of the resources Earth has. The “fewer forks” scenarium: Meaning simply fewer people. The “better manners” scenarium: Humanity (as in every single one os us) reduces our impact on the planet and makes decisions based on the full impact on Earth and ecosystems (complete internalization of costs in economic terms). Examples are the use of renewable energy and reuse of materials instead of throwing them out. The paper concludes that a combination of all three will surely be needed. -
Global Average Temperature and the Propagation of Uncertainty
LibertyBell replied to bdgwx's topic in Climate Change
It's more than that though, the population also has to stabilize. -
Global Average Temperature and the Propagation of Uncertainty
LibertyBell replied to bdgwx's topic in Climate Change
I'm not sure this is going to work, at some point you come up against a ceiling of what is possible on a single planet in terms of population, amount of technology, and the resources available. I'm sure you are aware of Overshoot Day, it's the day every year we run out of the amount of resources the Earth can produce in that year. It's simple math really, unless we start offloading people off the planet, nature is going to do all of this for us. https://www.overshootday.org/ Earth's carrying capacity is 10 billion and if anyone thinks that any kind of technology will save us against the simple math of limited resources, a finite size and exponential population growth, they are just kidding themselves-- sometimes literarily! -
April 1976 was matched by April 2002, I loved that dry heat, the sky was as blue as I've ever seen it. We also hit 90 in April 1977. 1977 had one of the top heatwaves on record (along with 1954 and 1993).
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On the flip side, with its much shorter period of record, has JFK ever had a winter average below freezing? Also, with the warmest winters there, wasn't March 2016 colder than December 2015? So if included March in the rankings, would 2015-16 fall out of first in the rankings? Chris-- two of your temperature tables are missing location headers.
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1917-1918 was a far superior winter to 1976-77 both in terms of extreme temps and snowfall, 1976-77 would have driven most of us crazy with dry and cold.
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tornado in downtown LA and record low pressure in SF!