LibertyBell

the 92-93 through 95-96 period was great, it was before and after that were bad.

this is a tremendous point, and as Bluewave posted earlier, in Australia this is behaving more like a la nina, with the high rainfall totals in Queensland. We want something more akin to 2015-16.

Probably the best storm in that kind of a strong el nino since there was over a foot of snow all the up to your latitude, I think?

Yes exactly-- and this would cause the extinction of deciduous flora and flowering plants, we would be going back to a Mesozoic like era where tropical flora like ferns and palms would dominate and amongst the rise in biodiversity would also be a higher number of dangerous microbes and more pandemics.

Don have you read this and what do you think? https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/12/venus-was-like-earth-until-climate-change-uninhabitable/ The planet Venus once likely had surface temperatures similar to present-day Earth, recent modelling has revealed. It probably also had oceans, rain, perhaps snow, maybe continents and plate tectonics. But Venus's climate was permanently altered when catastrophic volcanic eruptions released vast quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Could Venus's fate hold stark lessons for us here on Earth? We can learn a lot about climate change from Venus, our sister planet. Venus currently has a surface temperature of 450℃ (the temperature of an oven’s self-cleaning cycle) and an atmosphere dominated by carbon dioxide (96 per cent) with a density 90 times that of Earth’s. Venus is a very strange place, totally uninhabitable, except perhaps in the clouds some 60 kilometres up where the recent discovery of phosphine may suggest floating microbial life. But the surface is totally inhospitable. However, Venus once likely had an Earth-like climate. According to recent climate modelling, for much of its history Venus had surface temperatures similar to present day Earth. It likely also had oceans, rain, perhaps snow, maybe continents and plate tectonics, and even more speculatively, perhaps even surface life. Less than one billion years ago, the climate dramatically changed due to a runaway greenhouse effect. It can be speculated that an intensive period of volcanism pumped enough carbon dioxide into the atmosphere to cause this great climate change event that evaporated the oceans and caused the end of the water cycle.

Don a scary number of people believe we never went to the Moon....and even more scary, that the earth is actually flat! X/Twitter has become a bastion of such views, and recently there was a list put on there of "freemasons" who are not to be believed and on that list is: 1. Newton 2. Copernicus 3. Kepler 4. Einstein So basically any forefather of modern science is not to be believed according to them.

circa January 2016 lol

that was the only decade in the teens right? and the 70s were in the low 20s?

Did 1957-58 have a very mild December too? I know February and March were absolutely amazing.

la ninas after el ninos are usually our snowiest winters as you know

and the summer will probably be extremely hot, as summers after strong el ninos usually are

70s and 80s were much less snowy than the 90s, the 80s especially, no above normal snowfall seasons that entire decade

weak to moderate phases are becoming much less common

22-23 isnt even on this list and ended up the highest ranking in futility?

So this was when the warmth of the historic 1931-32 winter began.....

Thanks I'm headed up there in a couple of hours! So a little less than an inch up my way?

and in a la nina (la ninas after el ninos are our best snowfall seasons)

I wonder how much our political leaders are actually reflecting the will of the people-- specifically the older people. Having talked to so many people the last few months, it's surprising how many I find who believe in climate change but don't think it's a big problem. They actually think the planet will be better off being warmer because it will support more biodiversity specifically more plant life. These are some very intelligent people with some misguided views-- and they use Hawaii as the ideal for climate, saying it is the most biodiverse place on the planet and imagine if the rest of the planet had a climate like Hawaii. They dont care so much about sea level rise, saying that people should move away from the oceans-- they call us "coastal elitists." I've taken to using health as a bigger argument, because fossil fuels do adversely affect our health and that is a bigger concern to these people than the weather becoming warmer, which they actually seem to want. They even use ridiculous arguments like growing produce in Greenland, Siberia and Antarctica as reasons to want the weather to get warmer (and supporting a growing population-- which we need to stabilize anyway.)

Yes indeed-- and this is one instance where authoritarianism is better. If you had a powerful UN Secy General who could completely ban these companies and set the agenda himself or herself, we would have stronger movement on these issues. What is their logic for allowing fossil fuel companies to participate?

Thanks-- so that could be 3 MECS for someone or other on the east coast this season? Also, and this is much further ahead, but do you think we will have a very hot summer, based off of what usually happens in the summers after a strong or super el nino fades?

I just read your well detailed outlook, sounds like you agree with many that the real pattern change will happen around or after January 20th and should last through the end of February and perhaps even into early March. It agrees well with pattern shifts we've seen in the past that last for 6-8 weeks.

if January and February are both good, then it can still be a very good winter. Look at the snowfall totals of 1977-78 and also 2014-15

there were some really bad winters in that 2000-2018 period though: 2001-02 2006-07 2007-08 2011-12 more good ones though is this some kind of cyclic oscillation rather than simple regression?

Yep, this period compares to some of our worst stretches (late 80s early 90s and again late 90s into the new millenium)

using the 2015-16 analog, likely around 1/20 or later