LibertyBell

Is this an omega block setting up early this year-- so we're getting shortening wavelengths a month earlier than we usually do?

Don, for let's say highs in the 30s on a consistent basis are you looking at Feb 10th and beyond or more like after Feb 15th? Also-- we're going to hit a landmark soon. When we reach Day 730 it will be exactly 2 full years since the last 2" snowfall!

we'll get some sunshine next week

I can't help but thinking it's an interesting coincidence that it hit 80 at Newark in February 2018 and then winter came back in full force a few weeks later and then today it hit 80 at DC and that winter might come back in a few weeks.

Simulated snowfall is THE BEST kind of snowfall.

Didn't parts of Long Island actually get 2 feet? Maybe Islip and points eastward? And that one observer in Orient measured 30" lol

I remember we had a heat index of 100 here when it hit 96 on October 2nd (I think it was in 2018?) and that was on the south shore of Long Island lol

It makes me wonder sometimes if actual weather records are kept to a degree or to the nearest tenth of a degree. Most of our personal weather stations keep track of temperatures to the nearest tenth of a degree. Here's where it can create issues-- If my weather station records a low of 32.4 should that count as a freezing day? The low was technically above freezing-- because freezing is exactly 32.0 How does the NWS handle such issues? Do they round the temperature down to 32 or is a low of 32.4 considered a day on which it did not reach freezing? Likewise does a day with a high of 89.5 get called a 90 degree day or not? I always assumed that 32.4 is rounded down to 32 and 89.5 is rounded up to 90?

Nina conditions would be good for a nice hot summer

Yeah looks like models want to make a dramatic turn to colder and snowy east coast weather by mid February?

This is wild Larry-- what was 1998's and 2016's?

and DC hit 80 degrees today, the earliest that has ever happened by 4 weeks! By the way, really nice color on those buildings lol

Don a small point, was the high at DCA 80 or 81? I saw a tweet that said it was 81? And did Dulles get any higher than 79?

Thanks, I figured we have less of a chance of storms sliding under us than we did in 2010, because the -nao was at historic levels in 2010.

Nice writeup..... it's worth remembering that if we are going to use 2010 as an analog that although the good pattern started in mid January, the first couple of storms slid under us. There was a storm in late January which only made it up to Central NJ for any snowfall at all, and of course the Feb 6, 2010 snowmageddon which hit the south shore with 1-2 inches of snow but 50 miles south of us got 2 feet. So maybe the first couple of storms in this great pattern will miss to our south (depending on how strong the nao blocking is-- in 2010 it was historic). So if this is the case we wouldn't realize our snowfall dreams until after mid February and that pattern would only last for 3 weeks at most (which is how long it lasted in February 2010 I think?) I'm not familiar with 1957-58, how long did the good pattern last on the backend that winter (the interval between the first snowfall of the backend pattern and the last?)

Ant, before the great pattern can "continue" it first needs to BEGIN. lol

I think because I used to spend a lot of time in the SW when I was little and it's fun to go running in the morning with really low humidity. The nights were also cool and comfortable!

Was October 2019 the same one it hit 95 at JFK? We had a heat index of 100 that afternoon lol That has to be the latest heat index of 100 or temperature of 95 at JFK on record.

Hopefully soon, because that will mean lower humidity! Low humidity 100 degree heat is great running weather!

and 85 at Central Park is almost as early.... I believe Central Park hit 85 or higher on 3/15/1990? We had a string of three straight days in the mid 80s in mid March 1990, that's when we had the really long summers that started in March and ended in September lol

the 80 would be much nicer 43 is meaningless for anything fun

Yeah but Dulles is way out in the suburbs.

wow so this is the January record

110 in the summer can never happen here, we have a maritime climate here in the summer lol We can handle the occasional 100-102 okay I think, I've never had a power outage during a heatwave.

is the 80 in DC the all time January record for them?