LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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When I was a kid and saw this happen I tried to calculate how high a wall would need to put up to block the warmer air from coming in off the ocean or failing that, how much liquid helium we'd need to dump into the ocean to freeze it solid.
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Yep I think 4" is the point where it's okay if it flips over. I remember we had a storm in the early 90s (maybe Feb 93) with 4 inches of snow in 4 hours and then rain for 4 hours. We got 4 inches and Central Park got 6 inches because they were snow for an extra 2 hours before it changed over there. There was still enough snow left over at the end for it to look wintry here. Anything less than 4 and it's not worth it.
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so thats when we could get something other than an SWFE snow to rain.
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this could be a good thing to fight back against suppession
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anything is better than *puking*
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It doesn't change the fact that the pattern will get much better after the 10th. Let's just hope it doesn't lead to suppression.
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he showed you!
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It's interesting that there's 15.1 inches south of us in Delaware and 14.6 inches north of us in CT, so are these 3 systems a mix of SWFE and suppressed?
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Maybe not quite as anomalous because it's February and not March? A few of those systems were quite borderline so more snow should be expected than we had that month since we're still in the middle of winter.
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ugh not more suppression..... why can't it be suppressed until it reaches the ocean and then climb up the coast?
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Don, are the Euro HIRES and EPS nao projections accurate though, they have the NAO around -2 to even -3 (EPS) by the 15th also (between the 11th and the 17th)..... the Euro AI drops it down even lower than that all the way down to -5.
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are they forecasting a time loop too (or three).....
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Change it to a map of January 1996, our biggest la nina snowstorm ever.
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Thanks, Tony, back then we used to have subzero arctic shots followed quickly by HECS!
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the wisest people are those who realize that the more they learn, the more there is yet left to learn.
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so a stratospheric polar vortex disruption is also *canonical* la nina?
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Here's to 1961 the coldest Groundhogs Day of all time, soon to be followed by a 2 foot blizzard!!
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storm coming in backwards, east to west, Walt? -
Lows:EWR: -2 (1961)NYC: -3 (1881)LGA: -1 (1961)JFK: -1 (1961) Tony was this great arctic outbreak in February 1961 just before the HECS that dumped 25.1" of snow at JFK? Their biggest snowstorm until PD2 (2003)!
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Looks like primetime begins on or after February 7th and the AO bottoms out around the 15th. If we extend this outward it should become positive again by the 23rd, so we should score something by or before then.
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Around what time do you think the pattern begins to relax-- February 25th?
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Yeah I'd like someone to run some numbers and point out what our best 15 day period is for double digit (10"+) snowstorms, but I think it would be approximately from Feb 5 - Feb 20.
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a gorgeous pink/purple sunrise here and 17 degrees !!
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So this wont be a Feb 10 - 25 kind of 15 day window, Chris? What are you looking at for the peak of the pattern, from Feb 15-20?
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Driest January on record at Mt Pocono too!!
