LibertyBell
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2 inches tonight and then another 2 inches Tuesday night?
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I don't think anyone will get no snow at all, at least 2 inches from each of those storms seems likely. -
We were talking about Nemo and today is the anniversary! It's also the anniversary of the famous 1994 thundersnow 4"/hr for 2 hours snowstorm!
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This has to be even more rare than gulf coast snow!! 1989 - A winter storm over California produced snow from the beaches of Malibu to the desert canyons around Palm Springs, and the snow created mammoth traffic jams in the Los Angeles Basin. Sixteen cities in the western U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Marysville CA reported an all-time record low reading of 21 degrees above zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)1989: Mammoth traffic jams in the Los Angeles area as freak snow struck California. The snow was reported from the beaches of Malibu to the desert around Palm Springs.
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Wow we were talking about Nemo without even realizing that today is its anniversary!! 2013 - A nor'easter produced heavy snowfall over the New England states. In Boston, Massachusetts, total snowfall reached 24.9 inches, the fifth-highest total ever recorded in the city. New York City officially recorded 11.4 inches of snow at Central Park, and Portland, Maine, set a record of 31.9 inches. Hamden, Connecticut, recorded the highest snowfall of the storm at 40 inches. That February 1994 storm was my first encounter with thundersnow and 4 inch per hour rates for two hours!!
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Yep, Nemo was half rain and half snow here, at least it was snow in the second half of the storm, which is much better than getting snow only in the first half of the storm.
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we had sleet and freezing rain for 2 days and then backend snow on the third day, that's how we salvaged 4 inches of snow. Out east of us there was a foot near Patchogue.
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Did we have the same kind of bust in Nemo (February 2013)? I remember some forecast maps with 30"+.... it did verify, but out east in Suffolk County and in CT with 35-40. January 2015 also jackpotted out east and northeast of us. 24-30 if I remember correctly.
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Having January 2016 the following winter is the reason that January 2015 isnt remembered like March 2001 is. That and we did get 10 inches of snow from it and February-March 2015 was truly historic cold and snowy!!
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NWS predictions are for 3-4 so if we get like 3.5 it will be our biggest of the season. They even have JFK projected for 3.4 which is impressive.
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our local (wabc) has most of long island in 2-4 and the north shore of suffolk county in a narrow strip of 4-8 (really 4-6 like they said).
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I mean a 10 inch snowfall sounds pretty awesome right about now, but coming off the expectations of 30"+ was pretty bad.
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This would be our biggest event of the season if this turns out to be correct.
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Maybe this is why we're seeing the modeling vary so much from run to run, it doesn't know how to properly handle the faster northern stream. It originates from a data sparse region anyway.
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Thanks, I guess that PD2 look is now gone
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Kara Block = Black Swan event. It also happened in the 2015-16 winter to turn that winter around from historically warm to historically snowy and cold.
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Chris, how much does this anomalous block have to do with the Kara Block that just caused the record setting snowfall in northern Japan? Other reasons why our midrange and longrange forecasting isn't more accurate is because of poor sampling in the oceans and in other parts of the world. Our weather doesn't begin here, it begins on the other side of the world and over sparsely sampled ocean waters.
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That's very interesting, the Kara Block is what drove the sudden change in the 2015-16 winter too that eventually led to the HECS. I wonder if the Kara Block is the reason why we're seeing the sudden change in the predictions for this month too.
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it's like trying to thread a needle and missing it by just a little bit each time (in either direction). This is why it's a thread the needle pattern. Many more ways for things to go wrong than ways for them to go right.
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Logic is an important part of any scientific quest and logic shows us that you just can't rely on any particular outcome. Some people are treating something that might be slightly more likely than not as some kind of scientific certitude. You can't track something that doesn't even exist yet.
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let's hope that following week pattern plays out, it still looks like the temperatures will be borderline, there dont seem to be any real cold outbreaks coming up. Temperatures in the 30s are cold especially for late February, but borderline when it comes to snow.
