LibertyBell
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I mean I was thinking of your luck scenario actually-- let's say it had snowed in December (ballpark figure...6-10 which is probably where the predictions were based on blocking.)... how often does a blowtorch January-February couplet happen after that? I settled on 6-10 because I distinctly remember Don saying back in December that while the blocking pattern was good, there were other factors that made him believe that while December would be decent (and 6 inches of snow would be decent), he didn't expect double digit snowfall in NYC.
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Yes, I think with the shortening wavelengths we could see something decent-- that's what usually seems to happen in patterns and winters like this. What fails in January and February can succeed in March. That's the main reason that March was the snowiest month in the 50s.
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I should have added this to my other post, but this is why I'm against luck: Honestly don't remember any winters where we had a snowy December and then a complete blowtorch like this for January and February. That's what makes me feel like the solution was "baked in" from the start. it also comes down to the idea (which I strongly believe) that the future solution is baked in from the start-- it goes beyond meteorology, Einstein actually championed this idea that the future is pre-determined....using this, you don't need "luck"...the concept is called superdeterminism.
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But would this winter still be remembered as a horrible blowtorch because of January and February? So basically, this winter would be a bad winter regardless of what happened there? I honestly don't remember any winters where we had a snowy December and then a complete blowtorch like this for January and February. That's what makes me feel like the solution was "baked in" from the start. it also comes down to the idea (which I strongly believe) that the future solution is baked in from the start-- it goes beyond meteorology, Einstein actually championed this idea that the future is pre-determined....using this, you don't need "luck"the concept is called superdeterminism.
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Yes, based on the numbers Chris posted, I'm using JFK numbers, which if I remember correctly are 10 out of 35 with under 10" and 12 out of 35 with over 30"....for us, it's more about either under 10 or over 30, it's close between those two.
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what I see is, some people who are biased for snow are saying one thing, and other people who aren't are saying something completely different. Having experienced some truly amazing winters, I don't feel like I have a bias anymore because I expect I've already experienced the best in winter weather that I'll experience in my lifetime. But this outcome we had this winter is much more likely than the great winters we mentioned the other day. And this winter will be remembered much more for the complete blowtorch in all of January and February than it will be for one missed chance in December....this was always going to be a bad winter, and it's really not even close.
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also...10 out of the last 35 winters have had less than 10" of snow here. It's more common than getting one of those really good winters we talked about the other day. So statistically speaking, this is a more expected outcome than having a great winter.
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There needs to be some sort of line drawn between this and going down the slippery slope into oligarchy This is the American oligarchy explained in a nutshell: https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf https://act.represent.us/sign/usa-oligarchy-research-explained
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And yet we had others in our own subforum talking about how the warm waters in the NW Atlantic would be a problem for us......look,it boils down to this....I'd buy it more if we missed snow by 50 miles....how can you invoke luck when there was no significant snow within 100 miles of the region in any direction? Unless you're talking about well inland which is dramatically favored in December,,,, the stats prove that.
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No but understand they are talking about their region, not ours. I also strenuously object to the word "luck"-- there is no such thing as "luck"-- everything is cause and effect. We've already talked about how the type of block we had wasn't ideal, it wasn't what we had in 2010....and going by the climo here, it really doesn't snow much in December. You live in a different climo zone, so results would be different for you than for what they are here.
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So that abnormally warm area of water in the NW Atlantic had nothing to do with it? I'm going by the record of December on the south shore of Long Island and it's pretty ugly-- unless you have a historic pattern like December 2009, 2010...you really don't get much snow here in December. If that pattern had occurred later in the winter, as in Mid to late January or February I'd buy it-- but December isn't a winter weather month here anymore.
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Yeah and I didn't even know this happened until someone told me I should look it up. From 1996 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weyauwega,_Wisconsin,_derailment The Weyauwega derailment was a railroad accident that occurred in Weyauwega, Wisconsin, United States, in the early morning hours of March 4, 1996. The derailed train was carrying a large quantity of hazardous material, which immediately caught fire. The fire, which involved the train cars and an adjacent feed mill, burned for more than two weeks after the actual derailment, resulting in the emergency evacuation of 2,300 people for 18 days, including the entire city of Weyauwega, with about 1,700 evacuees. Derailment and fire[edit] At approximately 5:49 am, an 81-car Wisconsin Central train traveling from Stevens Point, Wisconsin, to Neenah, Wisconsin, approached the city of Weyauwega at 48.3 miles per hour (77.7 km/h), traveling on a downward grade. The locomotives and the first 16 cars of the train passed a switch without incident, after which the seventeenth through fifty-third cars behind them derailed at the location of the switch, at 5:49:32 AM. A subsequent NTSB investigation found the cause of the derailment to be a broken rail within the switch that was the result of an undetected bolt hole fracture.[1] The derailed cars included seven tank cars of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), seven tank cars of propane and two tank cars of sodium hydroxide. The derailment ruptured three of the tank cars, spilling both LPG and propane, which immediately ignited. The conductor of the train cut the train after the first nine cars, and proceeded onward 1.5 miles (2.4 km). When the local fire crew arrived on the scene five minutes after the derailment, fireballs were exploding up to 300 feet (90 m) high that were visible for nearly 13 miles (21 km). Fire spread to a nearby feed mill and storage building that were both difficult to access by the fire crew because the derailed train was blocking the grade crossing. High tension power lines were also torn down by the derailment, which caused secondary electrical fires. In total, seven of the tank cars of LPG and propane leaked, and the two sodium hydroxide tank cars leaked their contents. Electricity and natural gas service to 25% of the city of Weyauwega was disrupted, and city water services had to be shut off because of a rupture in a water main.
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Yeah definitely not luck lol
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Trust me it's not luck-- 10 out of the last 35 winters have had less than 10" of snow here.
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Yes like thinking we can beat nature....you can't beat something that you are a part of, you only end up screwing yourself.
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It's definitely not luck-- I've lived here long enough to know it was a bad pattern for snow for among many reasons-- the ocean waters were simply too warm. You can look at the stats to see how poorly the coast does in December with snow. People use luck as an excuse when they dont understand-- there was no luck involved down here.
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Don I was just thinking of you! What say you-- will the January-February couplet this year be the warmest such couplet on record?
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01/02 was my GOAT but specifically talking about January it's definitely historic and it looks like the January-February couplet will be historic too-- what are supposed to be the two coldest months of the year will probably have their warmest two month average on record.
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They have a different point of view because of where they live....it's a lot more difficult to get snow here in December than it is there. Historically the coast around here rarely ever sees good snow in December. It's a matter of the local climate....this pattern was much better for them than it was for us.
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This is most definitely still historic because we have the warmest January on record and a bunch of other warm records to go along with it.
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we don't define seasons by snowfall though we define them by temperatures and the warmth this year has been more extreme and consistent than 97-98 2000-01 was also a much colder winter than this year's, there really is no comparison.
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It was a true failure.... bad luck would be like December 1989....it really wasn't that cold in December either, if you go up against the longterm average it was milder than normal.
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Things could change next week, Don? All I've been seeing is temps in the 50s lol
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we have that problem with planes too I'm using freeware called Sequator that removes this stuff from pictures while stacking using the "best pixels" feature. It still looks ugly in the skies but at least it can easily be removed from images.
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When those regulations got rolled back that rail company saved 2 billion dollars-- hopefully they lose more than that in lawsuits.
