LibertyBell
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Posts posted by LibertyBell
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5 hours ago, Sundog said:
Bust on high temps today? I thought we were supposed to be around 75 as of last night's forecast?
On another note, it seems Central Park is going to be totally irrelevant for the foreseeable future.
Today was perfect, nice land breeze, low humidity, warm.... the only thing that interrupted the party was those clouds that unexpectedly moved in. We need a nice high to keep that stuff suppressed to the south where it belongs.
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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:
The issue gets worse and worse. Wait until the first heatwave and it’s 92+ at every station but 89 at the Park and the media reports 89. It’s a big pet peeve of mine because it’s not the reality of the experience of the everyday person.
I wouldn't go by LGA temps either, they are usually lower than JFK on a land breeze.
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6 hours ago, Sundog said:
Beautiful
not if it's raining =\
my main beef with maps like this is they don't show sky conditions and that's what really defines how good a day is.
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5 hours ago, SACRUS said:
Highs:
ACY: 85
PHL: 82
BLM: 81
EWR: 81
New Brnswck: 80
JFK: 80* (no intra hour highs registered)
TTN: 79
TEB: 79
LGA: 79
ISP: 78
NYC: 77what does it mean no intra hour highs registered, Tony?
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1 minute ago, SACRUS said:
Got to 80, some high scattered wispy clouds from the system down in the southeast otherwise pristine today!
I was a little surprised to see those clouds, is that storm ahead of schedule? Forecasts didn't have any clouds coming in here before tomorrow afternoon!
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27 minutes ago, SACRUS said:
80 in reach , up to 78 here.
Today is the absolute perfect day, could not have scripted it any better for Mother's Day.
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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:
That was the summer west of the Hudson had many more 90 degree days. Many spots in NJ exceeded EWR numbers,
----------------------------------------------------------------2022:
PHL: 47 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 5; Jul: 19 ; Aug: 18 ; Sep: 2)
EWR: 49 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4 ; Jun 6 ; Jul: 20; Aug: 18; Sep: 1)
TTN: 31 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul: 14 ; Aug: 14; Sep: 0)
LGA: 30 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 3; Jul : 11; Aug: 13; Sep:0 )
ACY: 33 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 3 ; Jul: 16; Aug: 12; Sep: 0 )
TEB: 35 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun : 3 ; Jul: 13 ; Aug: 16; Sep: 0 )
NYC: 25 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun:1 ; Jul: 10 ; Aug: 11; Sep: 1 )
JFK: 16 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1 ; Jun: 1; Jul: 9 ; Aug: 5 ; Sep: 0 )
ISP: 13 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 1 ; Jul: 5 ; Aug: 5; Sep:0 )New Brunswick: 42 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 3; Jul: 17; Aug: 18; Sep: 1 )
BLM: 28 (Apr: 0; May: 4 ; Jun: 2 ; Jul: 12 ; Aug: 10)
89 Degree Days:NYC: 5
TEB: 3
PHL: 4
New Brsnswk: 4
ACY: 3
JFK: 7
LGA: 3
TTN: 7
BLM: 5
EWR: 3
ISP: 7Big difference between LGA (30) and EWR (49) too. Was this similar to 2005, Tony?
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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:
Records:
Highs:
EWR: 93 (1993)
NYC: 92 (1993)
LGA: 96 (1953)
JFK: 85 (1993)
Lows:
EWR: 36 (1966)
NYC: 36 (1966)
LGA: 42 (1945)
JFK: 40 (1966)Historical:
1865: A tornado touched down in Philadelphia around 6 PM ET, killing one person and injuring 15 others. There was a considerable destruction of property, with 23 houses blown down, damage to the Reading Railroad depot, with the water tank, carried 150 yards. Fairmont Park was damaged to the amount of $20,000.
1934: A tremendous dust storm affected the Plains as the Dust Bowl era was in full swing. According to The New York Times, dust "lodged itself in the eyes and throats of weeping and coughing New Yorkers," and even ships some 300 miles offshore sawdust collect on their decks.
1945: On May 10th and 11th 10.0 inches or more of snow fell over interior Massachusetts and the lowest barometric pressure for the month of May was recorded at 29.09 inches of mercury.
1951: Baltimore, MD recorded their latest snowfall on record with a trace.
1953 - A tornado hit Waco, TX, killing 114 persons and burying some downtown streets under five feet of fallen bricks. (The Weather Channel)
1966 - The 1.6 inch snow at Chicago, IL, was their latest measurable snow of record. Previously the record was 3.7 inches on the 1st and 2nd of May set in 1940. (The Weather Channel)
1970 - A very powerful tornado struck the city of Lubbock, TX, killing 26 persons, injuring more than 500 others, and causing 135 million dollars damage. It was the most destructive tornado of record up until that time, and came on the 17th anniversary of the twister which struck Waco TX killing 114 persons. A second tornado killed two others persons in Lubbock, and the two tornadoes damaged or destroyed nearly a quarter of the city. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
1987 - Early morning thunderstorms produced up to four inches of rain in southern Texas, with flooding reported from Maverick County to Eagle Pass. Evening thunderstorms in northern Illinois produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. Reno, NV, reported a record high of 89 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the High Plains Region. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 71 mph at Gillette WY, and baseball size hail was reported at Pecos TX and Fort Stockton TX. Fort Stockton TX was deluged with 7.75 inches of rain in less than two hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1990 - Unseasonably cold weather followed in the wake of a spring storm in the north central U.S. Seven cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Madison WI with a reading of 29 degrees. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Kansas, Oklahoma and the northern half of Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Texas, and produced high winds which overturned four mobile homes northwest of Abilene TX injuring ten persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
2005 - Strong thunderstorms affected parts of the U.S. Great Plains. In the Hastings, Nebraska area, significant severe weather occurred, including very large hail, damaging winds and widespread flooding. Radar estimated rainfall accumulation locally exceeded 10 inches.
Records:
Highs:
EWR: 93 (1993)
NYC: 92 (1993)
LGA: 96 (1953)
JFK: 85 (1993)
Lows:
EWR: 36 (1966)
NYC: 36 (1966)
LGA: 42 (1945)
JFK: 40 (1966)Tony, this must have been the day the historic summers of 1953 and 1993 got started!
On the flip side it's funny to see such cold this late in 1966 when that became our hottest summer on record until 1993 and 2010 came along!
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49 minutes ago, bluewave said:
When you look at the regional increase in 90 days, NYC is the only outlier. LGA has seen a slower increase in 90° days than New Brunswick which is in a more rural to suburban type setting with grass and nearby trees.
The base period that I am using for comparison is 1961-1990. This is the base period many of us grew up in before the summers and other seasons began to rapidly warm. So it was the last time we had anything approximating a stable climate.Summer warming especially accelerated from 2010 to 2024. 12 out of those 15 summers were above normal warmth to record warmth across the area. We only had 3 summers near to slightly below average temperatures in 2014, 2017, and 2023. The last time we had an actual cool summer was back in 2009.
NYC has only seen an increase of 5.5% in the number of 90° days. Newark is at a 43.5% increase. LGA has increased 78.5%. New Brunswick has jumped 93.7%. POU to our north has seen a 50% increase. So NYC is the obvious outlier. LGA has been subject to cooling breezes off the water in recent summers since the ASOS is right on the water. There have been several more 90° days to the south closer to Corona, Queens. Newark has also had several summers recently with more onshore flow. This is why areas to the west have seen more 90° days.
If the NYC ASOS wasn’t moved into the shade back in 1995, then the average would be at around 29 days reaching a year now vs 19. So this does a big disservice to residents living in Manhattan where the number of 90° days has been getting undercounted. I arrived at 29 days since this represents around a 60% increase when the Newark and LGA rate of increase is averaged out. So this is what the actual NYC annual number of 90° days would be closer to if the measurements were taken in a clearing like the Great Lawn rather than in a dense area of vegetation under a tall stand of cool shade trees.
1961 -1990 to 2010-2024 change in 90° days
NYC….18 to 19……..+5.5%
EWR….23 to 33……..+43.5%
LGA…..14 to 25……..+78.5%
NBW….16 to 31……..+93.7%…….My abbreviation for New Brunswick
POU…..14 to 21……..+50%
You're forgetting JFK too.
The increase is really for inland areas.
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32 minutes ago, wdrag said:
No thread yet... if ever, but MLB games in Cleveland, Atlanta, Philly, NY I expect will see delays or cancels into D-N double headers this coming Monday-Thursday, possibly Fri and the weekend. Most of the delays-cancels should be Tue-Wed, as a start for my own expectations. I apologize if this duplicates someone else's post.
Trends for the axis max rainfall may shift north as it has been the past couple of days.
all stadiums should have removable domes at this point, with all the money the Yankees have I can't imagine why they'd skimp on a 150 million dollar add-on.
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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:
August of 2013 was cooler and wet. it did have the massive Western Atlantic Ridge expansion and linking with the rockies ridge in July for the massive heat dome but 2018,2019, 2022 all warmer/hotter for sustained periods
The same was the case in August 2011 too. It really was July when the heat peaked and did so in a historic way (In July 2011 especially.)
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7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:
The exact reasons I listed above. The global elite running a corrupt organization. They treat the park like their own backyard. The large enclosure for the instruments with fencing is unsightly. So deep in the trees is exactly where they want it, and exactly where it will stay.
ah they are worried about people stealing the instruments (hence the fences.)
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6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:
The exact reasons I listed above. The global elite running a corrupt organization. They treat the park like their own backyard. The large enclosure for the instruments with fencing is unsightly. So deep in the trees is exactly where they want it, and exactly where it will stay.
But the instruments belong to the NWS no? They should be able to move them to wherever they want them to be?
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21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:
It’s very difficult to cut anything in Central Park. It’s not run by the Parks Department like other NYC Parks. It’s run by the Central Park Conservatory. They receive millions upon millions of dollars of dollars in donations from some of the richest people in the world, so it’s not a money issue. I have a good friend who I worked with at Columbia/Barnard who was a gardener at cpk and said it’s incredibly corrupt.
As far as the heatwave potential. Just look at the heat waves in the Pacific Northwest and France over the last few years. Major heat domes that crushed all time records by as much as 10 degrees. The 1953 heat wave was caused by a heat dome. If that same heat wave were to happen today the highest temp would likely be 105+.Why don't they just move the equipment to where it was in 1993 and prior? I would put it right in the middle of the Sheeps Meadow.
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13 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:
I dont mean to rain on the foliage parade, but the outlier isnt CPK…it is LGA…by far
EWR…19% increase
LGA…53% increase
CPK…13% increase
The LaGuardia number is way out of whack with the other two. Central Park may be a little low. but the LaGuardia number and what’s going on out there is highly suspect in being accurate.
add JFK and it's even more apparent.
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:
Yeah, moving the ASOS into the shade in 1995 really skewed the values. In the roughly 30 year period since 1996 NYC has had only 461 days reaching 90 vs 817 days at Newark and 631 at LGA. The previous 30 year period from 1961 to 1990 featured 550 days in NYC with 689 at Newark and 410 at LGA.Harrison has become the new 90° day leader across the area surpassing Plainfield from 1961-1990.
1961-1990 # of 90 days
EWR….689
NYC….550
LGA….410
1996-2024 #90 days
EWR…817
LGA…631
NYC…461
Data for January 1, 1996 through December 31, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.NJ HARRISON COOP 871 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 836 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 817 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 778 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 631 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 589 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 512 CT DANBURY COOP 498 NJ CRANFORD COOP 485 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 461
Data for January 1, 1961 through December 31, 1990
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 724 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 689 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 645 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 635 NY WEST POINT COOP 614 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 550 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 536 NY SCARSDALE COOP 523 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 521 NJ CRANFORD COOP 468 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 455 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 454 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 443 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 438 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 410 Chris if we just go decade by decade, and compare NYC, JFK, LGA AND EWR, how do they all compare for the following 10 year periods with average number of 90 degree days:
1980-1989
1990-1999
2000-2009
2010-2019
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25 minutes ago, steve392 said:
What an absolute stunning morning!!! Clear blue skies driving in, 50 degree with that nice crisp chill in the air. Gorgeous.
the moon was gorgeous last night too!!
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:
Yeah, moving the ASOS into the shade in 1995 really skewed the values. In the roughly 30 year period since 1996 NYC has had only 461 days reaching 90 vs 817 days at Newark and 631 at LGA. The previous 30 year period from 1961 to 1990 featured 550 days in NYC with 689 at Newark and 410 at LGA.Harrison has become the new 90° day leader across the area surpassing Plainfield from 1961-1990.
1961-1990 # of 90 days
EWR….689
NYC….550
LGA….410
1996-2024 #90 days
EWR…817
LGA…631
NYC…461
Data for January 1, 1996 through December 31, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.NJ HARRISON COOP 871 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 836 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 817 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 778 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 631 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 589 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 512 CT DANBURY COOP 498 NJ CRANFORD COOP 485 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 461
Data for January 1, 1961 through December 31, 1990
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 724 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 689 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 645 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 635 NY WEST POINT COOP 614 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 550 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 536 NY SCARSDALE COOP 523 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 521 NJ CRANFORD COOP 468 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 455 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 454 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 443 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 438 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 410 1999 and 2002 still had no problems getting extended heatwaves though.
2010 should have the record for most 90 degree days though, it was our hottest summer by a mile.
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Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said:
Along with 1995, 1999, and 2002.
WX/PT
Yes, those were the last ones with extended heatwaves.
That NWS longest heatwaves page is a great guide to how our summers used to be. We didn't see extended heatwaves like that even in 2010 although it had the most 90 and 100 degree days I've seen.
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52 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:
Yep, lots of rain recently. The issue just gets worse and worse every year as the instruments get further buried in foliage.
They don't have the money to cut it huh?
I still don't see that heatwave from 1953 or 1993 ever being equaled. 102 in September is absolutely unreal lol.
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37 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:
The current pattern as shown by all of the models doesn't bode well for heat. This pattern would have to break completely to allow heat to get into the NYC Metro Region. Yes, some mid 80s days are possible but here's the problem. You still have a very active west to east flow of low pressure systems and the jet stream and out ahead of them/it the heat gets wrapped around into Canada while copious moisture builds northward and northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico and off of the east coast respectively. So it's over the top heat until further notice. If you're in Ontario or nw NY State even parts of northern New England you can see a day here and there of heat. But in the big cities of the northeast it's nearly impossible especially with high pressure tending to stall over the offshore waters of New England. That's right, no Bermuda HP instead HP over the NE coastal waters. Were this pattern longterm I'd think we'd see near normal temps and above normal rainfall in NYC for the next 2 months. If the pattern breaks we probably will see heat. If and when that happens is anybody's guess.
WX/PT
Isn't this the same pattern we had in the winter?
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56 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:
I’m just old enough to remember 93. My parents house in south wantagh had no AC except in my parents bedroom. So my sis and I would sleep on the floor in there during especially hot nights. The rest of the house was so hot it was probably dangerous. Since we were only a few blocks from the bay those nights were rare expect that summer.
Yes, it was in the 90s even inside my house. I remember that day it hit 102 in the city and 101 at JFK, it was the third straight for the city and second straight for JFK, on a Saturday, and the sun looked orange. My dad was gardening outside and when I went out there with him, I asked him how he could garden with no breeze and an orange sun beating down lol. I woke up at 9 am it was already 92 degrees at 9 am at JFK, that's how I knew we were in for a historic day.
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17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
Look at this, I'm privileged enough to remember these summers. 1993 had the hottest period of my life time. It was the first summer I started using air conditioning here. Look at this absolutely amazing streak of 10 days of 90+ and 3 days of 100+ something I am reasonably confident we'll never see again in our lifetime. The amazing thing about the last two days of the 1993 streak is they happened AFTER a cold front had passed through. 90 and dry actually felt COLD
https://www.weather.gov/okx/heatwaves
Longest Heat Waves - 90 degrees + in a row(through March 10)DaysDatesTemperatures12
August 24 - Sept 4, 1953
91,91,91,94,98,99,98,100,97,102,94,90 11
July 23 - August 2, 1999
92,97,97,93,96,97,93,92,90,98,90 10
July 7 - 16, 1993
August 4 - 13, 189698,100,101,102,97,94,94,91,90,90
90,94,92,97,95,98,94,96,93,909
August 11 - 19, 2002
July 13 - 21, 1977
July 6 - 14, 1966
July 5 - 13, 194492,96,98,95,92,93,94,94,94
93,92,96,98,97,100, 102,92,104
91,93,91,91,91,94,99,101,95
93,94,91,94,92,91,93,93,918
July 29 - August 5, 2002
August 2 - 9, 1980
August 28 - Sept 4, 1973
August 10 - 17, 1944
June 26 - July 3, 190196, 95, 95, 96, 97, 90, 92, 91
91, 92, 91, 94, 93, 94, 96, 95
98, 95, 98, 94, 95, 94, 96, 93
97, 102, 97, 96, 95, 95, 96, 95
91,91,93,95,95,100,100,947
July 29 - August 4, 1995
August 9 - 15, 1998
July 15 - 21, 1991
July 12 - 18, 1983
July 7 - 13, 1981
August 1 - 7, 1955
July 15 - 21, 195393, 93, 91, 94, 96, 90,96
93, 93, 95, 94, 96, 99, 97
90, 93, 96, 99, 96, 100, 102
94, 93, 94, 98, 96, 93, 97
94, 95, 96, 93, 94, 94, 93
98, 100, 90, 95, 100, 97, 93
92, 97, 100, 101, 91, 90, 90The other ones that really stand out in my mind are the 1999 streak, it felt like the entire month of July was above 1999 !! This 11 day streak does not even include the back to back days of 101 after July 4th !!
And the other one is in 2002 when we had an 8 day hot streak followed by a 9 day hot streak 6 days later !!
1977 I remember because of the big blackout, 9 days 90+ and 3 days 100+ including a 104 !!
I really wish I was around in 1953 to see two monumental heatwaves, a 7 day and a historic 12 day heatwave with a total of 4 days of 100+ including a 102 in September the all time record !!
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Just now, LibertyBell said:
Look at this, I'm privileged enough to remember these summers. 1993 had the hottest period of my life time. It was the first summer I started using air conditioning here. Look at this absolutely amazing streak of 10 days of 90+ and 3 days of 100+ something I am reasonably confident we'll never see again in our lifetime. The amazing thing about the last two days of the 1993 streak is they happened AFTER a cold front had passed through. 90 and dry actually felt COLD
https://www.weather.gov/okx/heatwaves
Longest Heat Waves - 90 degrees + in a row(through March 10)DaysDatesTemperatures12
August 24 - Sept 4, 1953
91,91,91,94,98,99,98,100,97,102,94,90 11
July 23 - August 2, 1999
92,97,97,93,96,97,93,92,90,98,90 10
July 7 - 16, 1993
August 4 - 13, 189698,100,101,102,97,94,94,91,90,90
90,94,92,97,95,98,94,96,93,909
August 11 - 19, 2002
July 13 - 21, 1977
July 6 - 14, 1966
July 5 - 13, 194492,96,98,95,92,93,94,94,94
93,92,96,98,97,100, 102,92,104
91,93,91,91,91,94,99,101,95
93,94,91,94,92,91,93,93,918
July 29 - August 5, 2002
August 2 - 9, 1980
August 28 - Sept 4, 1973
August 10 - 17, 1944
June 26 - July 3, 190196, 95, 95, 96, 97, 90, 92, 91
91, 92, 91, 94, 93, 94, 96, 95
98, 95, 98, 94, 95, 94, 96, 93
97, 102, 97, 96, 95, 95, 96, 95
91,91,93,95,95,100,100,947
July 29 - August 4, 1995
August 9 - 15, 1998
July 15 - 21, 1991
July 12 - 18, 1983
July 7 - 13, 1981
August 1 - 7, 1955
July 15 - 21, 195393, 93, 91, 94, 96, 90,96
93, 93, 95, 94, 96, 99, 97
90, 93, 96, 99, 96, 100, 102
94, 93, 94, 98, 96, 93, 97
94, 95, 96, 93, 94, 94, 93
98, 100, 90, 95, 100, 97, 93
92, 97, 100, 101, 91, 90, 90also notable is we have not seen a super heatwave like the above since 2002, even 2010 and 2011 only had much shorter heatwaves!
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
in Climate Change
Posted
189 degrees is the highest one I've seen
140 degrees in Coppen Texas caused the burning of crops, trees and even doors!
I love tracking these very rare events!
Also look up Megacryoicymeteors !! These are not from airplanes and happened even before airplanes existed. Ice chunks the size of elephants falling for several days!!