LibertyBell

4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Since this thread turned into a semi Climate thread warmer oceans and atmosphere allow for more water vapor leading to hefty rain events. Feast or famine seems to be the name of the game as of now with weather patterns.

Just hope we have not turned on the faucet like we did in summer of 2018.

It really does seem that extremes are the name of the game now, we got completely shut out of all precip all of October last year right to the middle of November and now the see saw seems to be going the other way.

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You mean to tell me you think we will remain in a -PDO pattern as a result of CC for all of eternity? I never would have guessed that....in other news, I have a hunch the sun angle will begin to lower in about 5 weeks

It's likely we'll just go from one extreme to the other, it's usually the way nature works.

Some people forget that humans are also a part of nature.

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

Only has been two ULLs one at the end of April to the first few days of May then we had about 2-3 days of clear weather, small system around last weekend (Friday/Sat) that zipped through and just this one the last about 3 days. It seems like it has been a lot longer but it really hasn't been extraordinary by any means.

Again training and orographic lift played huge roles in this issue in western VA/ Eastern WV and Western MD unfortunate for sure but a reality of living near mountains.

Again I hope we continue this rainfall we are still nearly 7-8" below average on the water year around here we should have better soil conditions to help with this next bout of rain come next week. Largely this weekend will not be as threatening as once looked a couple days ago too much west flow down here, maybe a little something from Central Pa into Southern NY early Friday into early Saturday.

Those 2-3 days of clear weather were my favorite weather conditions of the entire spring, looks like we'll get another period like that starting Sunday and continuing for a few days after that.

I long for years like 2002, very warm to hot and dry with low humidity and clear blue skies.

Rainfall is good to get, if it happens for short intervals and only at night, getting that 2 nights a week with showers and thunderstorms would probably be enough.

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

That is not a very long time in a cutoff low situation. 

We sure have had many of these, it's the 3rd one that I remember in the last 2 weeks and it looks like a rainout for Memorial Day weekend too.

Our reservoirs are over 101 percent now.

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

Training is the name of the game with this one not sure I would call this a stuck pattern but to each their own. By definition what length of time do you consider a stuck pattern?

Just my own definition of a stuck pattern is precip that lasts for 3 days or more.

9 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like some showers tomorrow but probably not a washout

if it's in the morning and then it stays cloudy all day then it's definitely a wash out.  No one wants wet ground with cloudy gloomy skies.

10 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Lots of apples and oranges to unpack in that statement, but the discussion seems to be more around the weather generated on the interface between the east side of continents and adjacent oceans.  It's about 2500 miles from Labrador to Miami.  Its about 2700 miles from Valdivostok to Ho Chi Minh City (Saigon).  

I don't think the extremes that you are imagining are real (temperature extremes and snowstorms), except for possibly the number of TC's in the northern Pacific (any chance you were adding in TCs from the southern pacific?).  The mountains of northern Japan in winter are a special case in a similar sense to the way that the Tug Hill is.  There is nothing tiny about the coastline adjacent to either continent.

I was fascinated by the extremes on all the continents so I went about looking for different measurements with temperature and snowfall and for Asia I found a big extreme in temps between Omyakon and Verhoyansk (the dual cold poles in Siberia) vs Ahwaz in Iran.... going from -96 to +130.  The really interesting thing is those two towns in Siberia can go from nearly 100 degrees in the summer to nearly -100 degrees in the winter, I don't think you can get that kind of extreme range anywhere on the planet besides there and maybe the major city closest to them-- Yakutsk.  Besides northern Japan, the other region in that area with such extreme snowfall is the Kamchatka Peninsula in eastern Siberia (which is geographically close to northern Japan).... I saw a nature documentary of this very beautiful region and the diversity in flora and fauna there is absolutely amazing!

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, I'm just saying the cycle is long so it could take decades to fully change.. Since Winter 11-12, 83% of the Winter months have had +NAO [CPC]... Given that we are still near the peak and active Solar Max, I would say the odds right now are 70-75% that next Winter is +NAO (DJFM). I agree that it should start coming down after that, but it may take up to 20 years to leave the decadal +NAO state. The 1920s were very positive, and although the 1930s did see a substantial drop, the 1940s and early 1950s went back to positive.. if you smooth that all out, it's about 20 years after a peak phase for it to come down to neutral. I would say the Solar Min in the late 2030s is the big one.  

Also just being outside in the Winter.. I can feel the Atlantic subtropical jet, see it in the cloud cover and stuff. That's why I've kind of intuitively known that snowfall isn't big for the last 10 or so years. And I still feel that as strong, being near a peak, no change anytime soon.  

That's not to say you can't get a -nao in the middle of such a pattern or even that you need a -nao for a big snowfall winter.  Just don't expect a sustained period like 02-03 through 10-11 occurring anytime soon.

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

We have only had appreciable precip within the last maybe 3 weeks at this point. This will be the first month, at least in the BWI area, that we have seen near to above average precip in nearly 9 months. If it weren't for Debby last August we would have had almost a year and some months of below normal precip and we really didn't get a whole lot from Debby that was into the mountains (WV, VA) and Western PA.

It is a bit late for us to be getting these ULL patterns but not unheard of. I would love to see us finally get back to at least average over the next couple months and hope that this is not just a fluke situation. 

It's been flooding and I heard a school bus was swept away in the flooding in Maryland.  I don't mind 1 inch rainfall events, but 2-3 inch events and more are excessive and indicative of the harm that can be caused by stuck patterns.  I've always maintained that floods are more dangerous than droughts.  I wish we could get a moderate amount of rain, instead of excessive rainfalls that last many days at a time.  I find it interesting how snowfall events are in and out in less than 24 hours (often 12 hours or less) but rainfall lingers for days on end.

Why do TV mets sound like a broken record with *not a washout not a washout* etc.

Why do they care if we think it's a washout or not?

My definition of washout:

If it rains in the morning and is cloudy for the entire day, regardless of whether it rains the rest of the day or not, it's a washout!  I don't want wet ground or cloudy skies.

It never rains an entire day anyway, so calling it *not a washout* has no real meaning.

For example, although it is not raining right now*, it's been a washout.

So just say it's going to rain and don't use the W word at all!

Looks like the sun is trying to come out here again.

Good, I need to go pick up dinner in 30 minutes.

3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Ok we are getting way off topic here. But Hokkaido gets the majority of its snow from ocean effect snow. As cold air from Siberia travels over the Sea of Japan. It’s like lake effect on steroids. Their synoptic snows aren’t much greater then say Maine.

This is why we need to create a large body of water to our NW!!

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

i have watched lebron james vanish in the post season especially against the spurs the heat got to him weird when you consider he suppose to be perfect physical specimen in basketball...basketball is mind over body that why jordan was the best  he had that killer instinct even other greats sometimes lack..

Lebron James also choked against the Mavs.

4-6 finals record vs 6-0 you can't compare him to MJ.

Everyone realizes it too it's why MJ's sneakers still outsell everyone else's.

Just now, nycwinter said:

alaska has that natural nature beauty you cant find in many places

This is true, although I'm sure in the mountains of Japan you can find such beauty too.

3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

hokkaido is not like the rest of japan weather wise hokaido like alaska in that sense...

Actually Sapporo and other such cities in Hokkaido are probably more like Nova Scotia or Newfoundland cities since they get the same kind of coastal noreaster snowstorms, just more juiced up because of better tropical moisture coming in from the Pacific as well as more elevation.

Just now, nycwinter said:

hokkaido is not like the rest of japan weather wise hokaido like alaska in that sense...

But there are large beautiful cities in Hokkaido, something Alaska lacks.

Just now, nycwinter said:

siberia is a desert you know that right when it comes to precipitation in the winter?

Asia is far larger than just Siberia.  Siberia has the coldest temperatures, Northern Japan has the most snowfall.

TC action in the Pacific is far more intense and frequent than it is here.

23 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this is just a bad place for droughts

I think we'll get more October 2024 like rainfall shut outs.

Just not in the spring lol.

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah being so close to the Gulf Stream definitely enhances our precipitation. When compared to places at 40 north on the east coast of Asia. 
Rain has tapered down to drizzle on western LI.

Asia has far more interesting weather including much larger snowstorms (see northern Japan), more extreme temperatures and much more and stronger tropical cyclones.  North America is a tiny puny continent when compared to Asia (and especially Eurasia).

14 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

And you will be the last to understand while we are in a minor current warming cycle....it is nothing to be concerned about in the least!

You have a very curious polyannaish attitude.

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was much colder back in those days so the hugger tracks were often 3-6” instead of the 1-3” which have become the norm since 2019. There were also clippers with 3-6” and 4-8” snows which were common which dropped south of NYC. These days the clippers have become cutters due to the stronger Southeast Ridge pushing the storm track further north. Plus there were non KU Benchmark tracks at times with similar amounts. So there was a wider variety of ways to get near 20” or more since the storm tracks were much colder. 

I was wondering where the clippers and bowling ball storms disappeared to, we used to get 2-4 and 3-5 inch snowstorms multiple times a year and those are very rare now.

I remember the last time we got storms like that was during the 03-04 and 04-05 winters.

We even got super clippers that redeveloped offshore (January 2005).

Bowling ball systems in 1993-94 starting in December.

25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Surprised, no flood advisories were issued

Ahh one just issued for union

no need for advisories-- they just issued a multi county flash flood warning !!

For Somerset, Monmouth, Morris and Hunterdon countries until 7:30 pm

Getting very windy here now.

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But it’s been a challenge to sustain a quality +PNA ridge with the overpowering Pacific Jet.

In one scenario a piece of Pacific energy digs too much out West and pumps the Southeast Ridge causing a Great Lakes cutter storm track.

The next repeating pattern has been the hugger storm track along I-78 to I-84 with too much energy out west pumping the Southeast Ridge just enough for a quick change from snow to rain.

The 3rd common storm track has been too much energy coming into the Western US acting as a kicker trough suppressing lows to the south. 

So this fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has been working against Benchmark storm tracks even with blocking patterns which used to produce KU events when we had daily -5 AO readings in the past Februaries. 

But both of these remind me of the 80s and early 90s when we had a lot of hugger and suppressed tracks too.

But we at least got to 20 inches of snowfall in most years (especially during the early and middle 80s) because of moderate 3-5 inch events.

It was very windy back then too-- we used to have snow to rain followed by wind chill warnings and temperatures near 0 and wind chills down to -60 (I know they calculated it differently back then.) It was always either cold, windy and dry or wet and warm/mild lol.

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Recent studies have found that if the natural Grasslands weren’t removed, then there wouldn’t have been a Dust Bowl. But a typical drier pattern that has occurred over intervals of time in the past. None of the previous drought patterns produced that type of heat.The record heat was a function of the desertification brought on by the the land use practices during that era. 

You'd think with the dust causing darker skies the temperature should have been less (like our darker skies during the Canadian wildfires a few years ago).  In 1936 the skies got darkened over NYC like they were a few years ago when we had an AQI of 500 in June, do you think the AQI would have been even worse during the Dust Bowl era and if so why wouldn't the dust blocking the sun actually cause lower temperatures like it did a few years ago?