LibertyBell

10 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

Good idea. Sprayed around the perimeter a few weeks ago for ants, but need to get something for the yard.

Yeah I saw ants swarming around my steps when I went to get the mail the other day, that reminded me to get started.

5 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

2.17" and light rain after that downpour. Over 3" since yesterday.

That's enough for the rain please. Won't be able to mow my lawn for a week.

Need to drain the pool for the 2nd time today.

Make sure you spray something to keep the bug population from coming inside your house too.

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Same here in eastern NYC, really coming down now. 

moderate to heavy rain here now

I hope this doesn't cause the bug population to explode, remind me to spray Bug Barrier when the sun comes out on Sunday,  I spray it all around my property to keep the bugs out.

2 minutes ago, nj08822 said:

I work in downtown Allentown, which is on the edge of heavier rains and it's just lightly raining now.  My educated guess is that Stroudsburg/Poconos have gotten hit harder.  Probably 2 inches of rain at my house the last 24 hours, just south of the Poconos.

Thanks! My house there is just one county north of Allentown and they had 2.6 inches of rain with the last storm, so it must be rather muddy there now.

18 minutes ago, nj08822 said:

Out in Eastern PA we've been pouring almost all day, power out since 7am.  Definitely don't need any additional rains.

How is it by Allentown and the Poconos, I need to go there next weekend.

41 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

CC is absolutely a factor, that is not a debate. snowfall is just so prone to variance and we came off of such a torrid stretch that I want to give it another 10 year span to make sure that this isn't just regression to the mean. it'll probably be 75% bust, 25% boom seasons from here on out with very little in the way of true average

whats more important as far as CC is concerned are rising dew points, warmer mins and stuck patterns that repeat over and over again.

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Meanwhile CNJ is drench warfare.  Serious training all morning.  Going to be some BIG two day totals coming out of that area.

well they are the ones who really need it.

I just hope they don't get the problems they had in Maryland yesterday where an emergency was declared.

54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, that did not help. what was interesting was I remember the PNA ridge trending "better" as the event moved up, but the ULL deteriorated to the point that it didn't matter. just kinda became messy because of weird ULL stuff. they're finicky, always have been

these weird stuck ULL are also responsible for our rainy spring, I'm completely done with them.

52 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, that did not help. what was interesting was I remember the PNA ridge trending "better" as the event moved up, but the ULL deteriorated to the point that it didn't matter. just kinda became messy because of weird ULL stuff. they're finicky, always have been

I hate upper level lows, first thing I would do with climate modification is prevent them from ever being able to form or get stuck.

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think part of it is that back in the 2000s and 2010s, most KU setups delivered (March 2018 is a great example), and now we're seeing some flies in the ointment. sure, some of those failure modes are popping up more and more because of CC, but I think we got a bit spoiled, so now a block pops up and everyone expects a KU (I am personally guilty of this and am trying to remove this bias)

mid-Feb easily could have occurred, the ULL just became a bit sloppy and the system became more disorganized... it still delivered historic snow to VA beach, and there was also a once in a lifetime Gulf Coast storm

it's a late 80s pattern, we saw winters like this in 1988-89 and 1989-90 too.

February 1989 and December 1989 being cases in point, historic snowfalls well to our south and along the coastal southeast and midatlantic.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

March 2015 $hit the bed for my area...everything supressed into the southern half of the region...was cold and dry as the epic pack slowly fossilized and eorded. Cost me a seasonal snowfall record that I was sure I was going to get.

wow that reminds me of what 2013-14 was here March 2014 was suppressed to the south if it weren't for that, it would have been a snowfall record here, we went from a forecast for 2 feet of snow in the first few days of March to 2 inches in about 48 hours lol.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There was a brief period -NAO mid month...I didn't say the entire month was negative. 

There have always been a favorable several day windows that failed to produce...I'm not sure that warrants disregarding the NAO index. Maybe you are right and we shouldn't bother factoring in the traditional NAO value when forecasting storms, but I'm not ready to make that leap. 

I think the way the NAO is calculated needs to be changed.  What is traditionally considered a -NAO doesn't behave like it and isn't really a -NAO.  For example we have to divide them into -- west based vs east based vs south based vs north based.

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

February 2015, which is when the vast majority of the record snows fell that season, featured a -1.37 WPO. (-33 DM value). This past season had a +.45 DM WPO value. The state of the west Pacific will certainly render -NAO less effective. 

February 2015 was my absolute favorite winter month on record and it even extended into March!!  We had lots of cold, lots of snow and long duration snow cover too!!

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The actual climate and weather speaks in patterns and not narratives. The Dust Bowl was a manmade event caused by removing the topsoil in the Plains leading to desertification of the Great Plains. So what would have been a run of the mill drought turned into a disaster which forced migration to other parts of the country. So of course the summer highs over a few years would set records just in the drought areas which became deserts back in those days. Other states and parts of the country which didn’t experience those conditions have already surpassed the temperatures they recorded in the Plains. So narrowly focusing more on the Great Plains than the rest of the world which has greatly surpassed the warmth of the 1930s completely loses perspective. 
 

 

It was partially manmade and partially natural Chris.

I am 100% against conventional farming because of pesticides and fertilizers that destroy the environment and our health but in the case of what happened during the Dust Bowl, a combination of factors was involved.

We had a long duration La Nina pattern back then which made it hotter and drier.  It started in 1931 (leading to the extremely warm 1931-32 summer and It peaked in Summer 1936.)  Summer 1936 was historic on every level.  I wonder what the airports would have hit for highs with NYC hitting 106 lol.  NYC has never even hit 105 before or since.

Was Newark around in 1936 at least?

By the way, a long duration La Nina pattern is also blamed as being responsible for wiping out the Mayans because of the record drought it caused.

10 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

lol at this one getting unpinned before the 2023-24 thread.

2011 was a record wet August and September and 2013 was a record wet summer. Plus, that summer pretty much ended in late July.

Yes, but it was historically hot during peak heating in late July.  We haven't approached that kind of heat since then.

14 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I don't know if that's 100% true, we may not have gotten huge heatwaves in summer in the last few years but the rest of the year we have highs that are well above average all the time. 

Yes, this is what indicates to me that the boundaries between the seasons are becoming blurred. Maybe it's more accurate to say that for Spring and Summer it's more like a slow bake oven.

It's what we see in the tropics all the time, but down there it's natural and a result of being closer to the Equator and not seeing the extreme differences in sunlight that we get from winter to summer.

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Summer of '09 was rainy/cool and it led to one of the most epic winters of all time NYC south....

There's always an exception here and there, but the rule is a good one that seems to work out more times than not.

I'd argue that 2010-2011 was a much better winter and was more in line with the great winters in my analysis, in 2009-2010 the biggest snowstorm missed to our south, that one still angers me lol.

Snowicane at the end of February was a great storm, but was half rain for the eastern half of the subforum.

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s going to be a challenge getting anything resembling dry summer heat here with so much summer onshore flow and high dewpoints. Seems like you could really enjoy a Las Vegas or Phoenix summer pattern. It’s a really beautiful part of the country if you can tolerate that kind of heat. 

It gets boring if it lasts too long lol.  I just want like a 3-4 day stretch like that every summer.

2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I remember we got hail on New Year’s Eve 

That was one of the highlights of that winter lol.

Nature celebrating the new year with a bang.

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The Wantagh meso 107 is a extreme example of what a dry west wind can do on the south shore. That station is less then a mile from the bay. I think allot of it has to due with air exiting the urban heat island of the city and continuing through the most developed part of the island. I was life guarding at jones beach that day and we had several heat exhaustion incidents. On the sand it can be even hotter. 

People suffered second degree feet burns during the 1993 Summer when they went to the beach and I remember people were frying eggs on the sidewalk lol.

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, there was a small cooling influence from the nearby trees back in 1966 in Central Park compared to the other areas. But nothing as big as we would see today under the canopy that has grown over the ASOS.

That was a 250 to 500 year drought around our area. But instead we have seen multiple 500 year to 1000 year floods here. So if that was ever repeated in this much warmer climate, then most of the area would be in the 110° to 115° range with westerly flow. So we have been fortunate that this warmer climate has come with more onshore flow. 

The drought was very modest in 2010 to 2011 compared to those days. So I would add 5-7 degrees to the 2010-2011 highs if we got as dry as the 1960s. This is similar to what happened in the Pacific NW back in 2021 with the record drought and all-time high jumps around 6° higher than previous records. Remember, we had two baseline jumps in global temperatures since 2010-2011. 

 

Data for January 1, 1966 through December 31, 1966
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	107
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	105
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	105
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	104
NY	NEW YORK LAUREL HILL	COOP	104
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	104
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	104
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	104
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	103
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	103
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	103
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	103
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	103
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	103
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	103
CT	NORWALK GAS PLANT	COOP	103

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	MINEOLA	COOP	108
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	108
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	107
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	107
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	107
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	106
NY	MOLLOY CERCOM	COOP	105
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	104
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	104
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	104
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	104
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	104
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	104
CT	DANBURY	COOP	104
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	103
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	103

 

Time Series Summary for Olympia Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	110	0
2	2009	104	0
-	1981	104	0
3	1994	102	0
4	2006	101	0
5	2024	100	0
-	2023	100	2
-	1998	100	0
-	1978	100	0
-	1961	100	0
-	1960	100	0
-	1956	100	0

Thanks for the comparison Chris.... it's wild how everyone says that LGA is overly hot, and yet the high in Summer 1966 was 107 while it was 3 degrees lower in Summer 2011 at 103.

I love the Mineola comparison between the two summers, they went up from 103 in 1966 to 108 in 2011 to match Newark!

Newark went up three degrees from 105 to 108 and NYC and JFK basically stayed the same (103-104).  This is a great reference point to compare the climate between the 1960s and the 2010s!!

Didn't 1966 have a second 100 degree heat streak, back in June?  I think JFK topped 100 in that one too!  We don't see 100 degree heat in June anymore, but we did in the 1950s (1953) and 1960s (1966).

11 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

2010 - 2012 were some wild times around here.  There was that ridiculously wet mid-March 2010 where LI lost as many trees as in a hurricane due to the ground being so saturated, then Irene, then Sandy.  All interspersed with crazy snowstorms and then 100 degree heat, including I think a 106 in Newark.  Oh yeah, a decent earthquake too.  Am I missing anything?  Fun times if you like this sort of thing, not sure if it applies to anyone here lol.

108 at Newark, 104 at NYC and 103 at JFK.

As Chris mentioned Mineola on Long Island hit 108 and matched Newark!

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, there was a small cooling influence from the nearby trees back in 1966 in Central Park compared to the other areas. But nothing as big as we would see today under the canopy that has grown over the ASOS.

That was a 250 to 500 year drought around our area. But instead we have seen multiple 500 year to 1000 year floods here. So if that was ever repeated in this much warmer climate, then most of the area would be in the 110° to 115° range with westerly flow. So we have been fortunate that this warmer climate has come with more onshore flow. 

The drought was very modest in 2010 to 2011 compared to those days. So I would add 5-7 degrees to the 2010-2011 highs if we got as dry as the 1960s. This is similar to what happened in the Pacific NW back in 2021 with the record drought and all-time high jumps around 6° higher than previous records. Remember, we had two baseline jumps in global temperatures since 2010-2011. 

 

Data for January 1, 1966 through December 31, 1966
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	107
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	105
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	105
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	104
NY	NEW YORK LAUREL HILL	COOP	104
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	104
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	104
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	104
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	103
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	103
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	103
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	103
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	103
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	103
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	103
CT	NORWALK GAS PLANT	COOP	103

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	MINEOLA	COOP	108
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	108
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	107
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	107
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	107
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	106
NY	MOLLOY CERCOM	COOP	105
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	104
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	104
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	104
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	104
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	104
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	104
CT	DANBURY	COOP	104
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	103
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	103

 

Time Series Summary for Olympia Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	110	0
2	2009	104	0
-	1981	104	0
3	1994	102	0
4	2006	101	0
5	2024	100	0
-	2023	100	2
-	1998	100	0
-	1978	100	0
-	1961	100	0
-	1960	100	0
-	1956	100	0

Summer 1966 was also followed by one of our best winters, 1966-67.  It furthers my argument that our hottest/driest summers lead to our best winters.  It was repeated again with 1977-78, 1993-94, 1995-96, 2002-03 and 2010-11.  1955-56 also followed in the same style.

I definitely would not mind a lower humidity summer with high temperatures above 100, it's quite therapeutic and keeps the bugs away.

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The Wantagh meso 107 is a extreme example of what a dry west wind can do on the south shore. That station is less then a mile from the bay. I think allot of it has to due with air exiting the urban heat island of the city and continuing through the most developed part of the island. I was life guarding at jones beach that day and we had several heat exhaustion incidents. On the sand it can be even hotter. 

I thought it was the downsloping effect from the huge skyscrapers... dry hot west winds in the spring summer and fall are my absolute favorite!! We get really blue skies with them too!!

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Raining here

Love it

enjoy your mild snowless winter, because thats what we will get with a rainy cool summer.