LibertyBell
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Posts posted by LibertyBell
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Just now, MorristownWx said:
Today was about as perfect as it gets
my allergies calmed down after around 2 PM, maybe the wind died down around then or did the humidity get lower? Or both lol
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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:
Under mostly sunny skies, much of the region saw temperatures reach or exceed 70° today. Highs included:
Atlantic City: 70°
Bridgeport: 70°
Islip: 70°
New Haven: 71°
New York City-Central Park: 70°
New York City-JFK Airport: 70°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 71°
Newark: 73°
Philadelphia: 72°A cold front will move across the region tonight into tomorrow morning. Low pressure will likely form along the front and move across the region. Periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms are likely into tomorrow. A period of severe weather is possible. A general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely.
Following the frontal and storm passage, temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 60s through midweek. A stronger push of cold air could arrive afterward. Cool temperatures will likely persist through next weekend.
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.
The SOI was +7.60 today.
The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.919 today.
Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal).
Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
Yes 70 areawide including the south shore!
It was sunny pretty much all day right up until sunset here too!
TV Mets messed up the high again and said it was 69 lol
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9 minutes ago, Dark Star said:
Except the Euro predicted Sandy hitting NJ a week out. That gave birth to the Euro being the "best" model, until it wasn't..
It reminds me of when the 1978 February Blizzard was predicted a week out, whatever happened to the model that did that anyway? We could use it with how poor skills the models have been showing for winter storms (or the lack thereof) the last several years.
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33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:
I used the same AI he used to illustrate a point. I still prefer using the actual literature. AI is here to stay, how it is used or misused will have profound consequences. I take no position on whether AGI or a “singularity” will be reached anytime soon.
we might need to place some restrictions so children (under 18) aren't using it for their school projects, I feel like it discourages independent thinking.
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5 minutes ago, Dark Star said:
Humidity is a bit much..
That might be adding to my allergies too-- wind plus humidity is a very bad combo
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1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:
Started the day with about 60% leaf drop, closer to 80% now that the breeze has picked up. 70 and a muggy feeling 61 dew.
the warm weather is nice but the winds are torturing me with allergies
it hit 72 here and didn't seem humid
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4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:
Made it to 78 before clouds started to move in bit now at 75
too bad you could have hit 80 today
still bright and sunny here but just too windy for me
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14 hours ago, psv88 said:
Yea that lake water isn’t coming back. Maybe for the best. Let nature be nature
what caused its drying out, lower rainfall totals over the past year?
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5 hours ago, bluewave said:
Wonder if we can actually tap some tropical moisture later in the month? We haven’t been able to do this in a while. Probably just have wait and see what comes of the potential Western Caribbean development.
Maybe even a Sandy type track? That pattern looks VERY familiar and the time of the month is right too.
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5 hours ago, bluewave said:
The MJO is really favorable for development in the Western Caribbean. We will just have to wait and see how much interaction there is with the trough forecast to be near the Great Lakes. Maybe the cutoff event last weekend was the beginning of a wetter pattern for our area.
dry summers and wet winters are exactly what we want
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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:
The operational ECMWF certainly does before bringing a captured tropical cyclone into Maine and then northwestward from there. The proverbial pieces could be available. It will be interesting to see if we wind up getting tropical-enhanced rainfall, even if just through a frontal passage.
Maybe it will hook into our region like how Sandy did, the timing seems right, same time of the month that Sandy came here.
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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:
68 here
72 here but too windy
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2 hours ago, qg_omega said:
Hum much more aggressive that most models which are trending poorly due to bad timing
it's not really bad timing for those of us who like mild sunny days, but the wind aspect of today really sucks
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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:
76 / 60
Gem of a late october day
72 here the wind is horrible and really provoking my allergies
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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:
-2:57 today to 10:57(ish)
why is it so windy today?
it's ruining what should have been a wonderful day.
it hit 72 here earlier but the damn wind has made my allergies really bad starting around 11 AM
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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:
As I provided the SSTA data yesterday, I won't repeat that part of the post. I note that he asked GEMINI (AI) a question. The question he asked does not directly address the issue. The issue concerns whether volcanoes are driving the warming, not whether there is hydrothermal activity and/or what drives that hydrothermal activity.
Since he used GEMINI, let's see how it would respond to a direct question (note: I never provided "leading" information to generate a desired outcome):
Its response:
So, while he tried to create the impression that AI, or at least one AI, backs his thinking, when asked directly about the warming, the AI does not. It focuses on what the literature describes as the causes of the warming. Submarine volcanoes are not even mentioned its response.
Of course, he didn't ask the direct question. It doesn't fit his preferred outcome. The exercise was about confirming his view, not gaining objective information.
Although the AI performed quite well with the direct question, I still think it is better practice to go to the literature itself, as bad practices such as prompt injection can lead to skewed results from AIs.
A good paper on the subject can be found at: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL090956
we really need to ban AI on an executive level
many prominent thinkers/scientists have stated it will destroy our society
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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:
The following seems to describe their M.O.:
1) If presented by counterarguments, they largely ignore the counterarguments or, in infrequent cases of response, make broad claims that the arguments are incorrect, they shift goal posts, etc.
2) If presented with data and links to the data or scientific literature that anyone can access, that crosses a "red line." They seem to have a mortal fear about others having the ability to access the data or literature, perhaps because they know that their own view is hollow unsupported conjecture. Access to data is far more dangerous to their view than simple counterarguments.
He probably also hid your reply
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1 hour ago, lee59 said:
Almost made it to 70, 69 my high.
it will be in the 70s tomorrow, it was 68 here today
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On 10/13/2025 at 1:00 PM, Typhoon Tip said:
Not sure I agree here... We ARE in a catastrophe, a slow moving one. Too slow to be seen in what we call "real time", or human perception, but that slowness only beguiles us into a false sense of lessening urgency.
Don and I ( and any others et al) have been discussing about the limitations in the biology of all Terran life ( for that matter -): for all species, urgency is aroused by what their senses are telling them. Human beings, as far as can be empirically tested, are the only life forms on this planet capable of prognosticating doom or boon based upon projection. But we still procrastinate, if not outright disregard those forecasts when the evidences are not directly appealing as such. You know ... what can be seen, heard, smell, tasted., or touched. The tree does fall in the woods whether anyone is around to see it happen or not, and in this case... it's particularly bad because the proverbial tree is falling right in front of us, yet is unseen.
But it's still falling
Elephants, Orangutans and some other animals can also prognosticate doom. Elephants literally headed for the hills when the Indonesian tsunami approached while humans were mindlessly sunning themselves on the beach. Many animals can detect earthquakes before they happen, a notable example were the orangutans at the National Zoo before the 5.8 earthquake in August 2011.
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8 hours ago, FPizz said:
It was like 20 miles wide haha. Snow storms always have winners and losers. Sometimes you guys get a nice coastal where i get shafted. Storm tracks always determine the localized winners and losers here. But, that was one of the best snow surprises of my life.
how much snow did you get? we had a nice surprise too-- around 6.5 inches here and 4.5 inches from another storm in the same week!
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8 hours ago, Sundog said:
I bet this is a combination of the Hunga Tonga water vapor injection coupled with international shipping cleaning up aerosol pollution accelerating/demasking the general warming trend of the 2020s.
Did we really need to clean up shipping? For gods sake this couldn't come at a worse time.
international shipping also adds a gigaton to greenhouse warming
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9 hours ago, bluewave said:
March during the 2020s has been 3.8° warmer than the 2010s at a spot like NYC. So it has been too warm for much snow in March this decade. It’s more like an early spring month now than a late winter one we had during the 2010s.
March Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.Mean 46.5 46.5 2025 46.9 46.9 2024 48.1 48.1 2023 44.6 44.6 2022 45.3 45.3 2021 45.8 45.8 2020 48.0 48.0
March Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.Mean 42.7 42.7 2019 41.7 41.7 2018 40.1 40.1 2017 39.2 39.2 2016 48.9 48.9 2015 38.1 38.1 2014 37.7 37.7 2013 40.1 40.1 2012 50.9 50.9 2011 42.3 42.3 2010 48.2 48.2 March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.Mean 6.0 6.0 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T wow March 2014 was such a waste after such an excellent winter, look how cold it was and only 0.1 inches of snow. February 2015 and March 2015 are why I remember 2014-15 as a much better winter than 2013-14.
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Just now, Sundog said:
21-22 not good.
You mean 20-21.
damn I thought our stretch of bad winters started with 22-23, 23-24, 24-25
so we've had 4 bad winters in a row and not 3?
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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:
October is one of our fastest warming months for all the stations in our climate division since 1981. Our area has been warming at 1.1° per decade in October along with January. May and November are the slowest warming months at 0.4° and 0.3° per decade.
But how is it that the first high temperature below 60 has barely moved Chris?
October 2025 Discussion and Obs
in New York City Metro
Posted
Last 70 for the season Don?
I think it's always highly suspect to predict the last 70 because it can be 70 in the middle of winter too, I remember we have hit 70 a few times in January including January 2006 here, 11 years to the day that we got the Blizzard of 1996 lol.