LibertyBell

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The extreme blocking of December 2010 and January 2011 locked in the cold air. Once the blocking ended, the explosive snowfall and sustained cold were largely finished.

But was the reason for the extreme blocking the same as what we had in 1916-17? And has such extreme blocking always been historically rare, or is it only this rare in our new climate OR is it that in our new climate we need this kind of extreme blocking to get very high snowfall totals? Getting at least 50" of seasonal snowfall seems to require it.

52 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I don’t have NAO data from the 1910s. But I can say that back to 1950, 2010-1 had the strongest -NAO for DJ for La Niña on record (season snowfall and DJF temperatures also shown):

2010-1: -1.4/61.9”/temps -3

1970-1: -1.2/15.5”/temps -2

1995-6: -0.9/75.6”/temps -3

1984-5: -0.8/24.1”/temps 0 (N)

2020-1: -0.7/38.6”/temps 0 (N)

1954-5: -0.6/11.5”/temps 0 (N)

NAO monthlies back to 1950: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

 Regarding the 1910s, these were the La Niña winters per Eric Webb along with their NYC DJF temperatures/full season snowfall (avg 29.8”) using 1901-30 for the base period:

1909-10: 1 BN/~24”

1910-1: 0 (N)/27.2”

1916-7: 1 BN/50.7”

1917-8: 7 BN/34.5”

NYC data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

Eric Webb ENSO 1910s:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

Yes that's the one 2010-11 was compared to 1916-17

Interesting that 1917-18 was historically cold but 1916-17 was snowier.  Although both were great winters in their own right.

On the plus side, my allergies have gotten much less over the past week-- I think because most of the things that cause allergies have already blossomed or bloomed.

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sounds like aliens

I was told transformers exploded because of the rain.  When it stopped raining around 3 AM the power fluctuations stopped.  The low humming also finally stopped.

The infrastructure around here is really bad.

There's a motion detector light I have downstairs that's only supposed to turn on when it detects movement..... well when this happened last night, the light got permanently stuck to ON.... I have NO idea how that happened!

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

He is stirring up a "Witches' Brew" of analogs for which the selection seems more astrological than scientific in nature. 1995-96 was a much weaker La Niña event than is currently forecast with a PDO+. 2010-11 featured extreme blocking. 2013-14 was a Neutral ENSO event. 2014-15 was an El Niño winter. It should be noted that every strong La Niña since 1950 featured a negative PDO. These discontinuities suggest that there is no objective framework behind the analog selection. Very likely, his desire to forecast a cold and snowy winter (possibly as an argument that winters aren't warming, an argument he lost long ago) is the guiding force driving his emerging winter idea. That his past two winter forecasts have been debacles does not seem to have discouraged him from trying again. Random chance may sometimes intervene, but the lack of an objective forecasting framework assures that he won't see consistent forecasting success.

Interesting thing about 2010-11 which I remember you pointed out is that it was much more like La Ninas of old back in the 1910s which were very snowy and cold-- I wonder why that winter was so much like those winters from over a century ago?

Just now, LibertyBell said:

wtf happened last night? it got downright scary here!

The power went out here three times in the heavy rain between 1 AM and 2:30 AM! There were very bright flashes visible outside when the power went out each time, the entire sky turned white-- but it was not lightning! The power went out only for a second each time but scary!

I thought there were explosions happening inside my house because the bright white light outside was so bright it seemed like it came from inside the house.  By the second and third time I knew it was outside because the entire sky lit up bright white when it happened and each time my power went out for a brief second and it messed up my cable box which needed to be rebooted and I had to manually turn my computer and TV back on.  My UPS also turned off and had to be manually turned back on.

9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Sheet drizzle fest. 

wtf happened last night? it got downright scary here!

The power went out here three times in the heavy rain between 1 AM and 2:30 AM! There were very bright flashes visible outside when the power went out each time, the entire sky turned white-- but it was not lightning! The power went out only for a second each time but scary!

13 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I'm not trolling at all

You know me. I love cool and dreary weather besides winter.  It's also easier for my job. 

Get a different job dude

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

When the constant back door gunk ends right around Memorial Day, we’re finally good for summer. June was the never ending N flow around the Canadian high that brought the smoke in. 

Northerly flow is normally really good for us for nice sunny dry hot weather in the summer.

47 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Showers and periods of rain are likely tomorrow into Monday. A general 0.25"-0.50" of rain is likely. It will be unseasonably cool with the high temperature reaching only the upper 50s in much of the New York City area and low 60s in southern New Jersey and Philadelphia. Monday and Tuesday will become noticeably warmer. Overall, the first week of May should wind up warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around April 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was +3.16 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.742 today.

 

I love your enso predictions but can we get a prediction on the AO and NAO,, Don, when do you think it will turn positive?

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

55 and rain, great day

so glad it's not raining here, it was sunny most of the day

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Mostly cloudy means mainly sunny. Got it!

partly sunny

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And now for the first time all day . It actually is mostly cloudy . Facts 

you're right, here on Long Island it was mostly sunny until noon and only partly cloudy from then until 3 pm and the sun is breaking out from time to time even now.

6 hours ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Loving this London weather regime. Cool and damp is welcomed this time of year. 

whyyyy?

2 hours ago, rclab said:

We may need a crises intervention team. Anthony posted “Pizza is gross in Rhode Island”  … in the New England sub forum. As always, …..

why is he in Rhode Island? There's so many better places to go this time of year.

Have you ever seen the movie Mystic Pizza? He should take the short drive to SE CT to get some real pizza.

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Tomorrow looking like periods of light rain lasting all day but not adding up to alot

mostly afternoon rain showers too ending monday morning

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Strong sun making 60 feel like 70.  

I cant wait until the sun becomes a red giant and burns all these clouds off.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, spring and summer have become our big -NAO seasons. 

 

this is why both spring and summer have become less hot (less 90 degree days) than the period from 1991-2002.

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Light rain and mid 50s now. 

lol the sun was still trying to come out here a few minutes ago

3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s a Japanese Kwanzan cherry. 
 

BRING ON THE RAIN!

why, the flowers will come down

we should have rain like once a week or once every 10 days.

Now I know why I loved the 90s so much lol

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. Not at all but I’d still prefer to see further analysis in this case before assuming that, which would be awful if true. For example, is there some alternative potential explanation for WB CFS showing that ~4,000,000 sm area from N of Hawaii westward being BN when other CFS maps showed mainly AN there (i.e., WB colder) while at the same time WB CFS has solid AN just off N Amer vs NN to slightly BN on others (i.e., WB warmer)? If they were both either colder or warmer, I’d suspect algo bias. But in this case, one is colder and other is warmer. So, if not algo bias, what could it be besides intentional manip? Isn’t there possibly some other explanation?

2. You said he purposely posted SN maps in cm vs inches to make look snowier. I follow that. But I don’t follow how him posting maps in C vs F would make it look colder. Please explain.

In the scientific world, this has been done often out of greed, you should read the false reports coming out of the fossil fuel companies and also the sugar industry about their products.

22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Could've been here early but I slept in

The sun is trying to break out even now.

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

November like sky..completely overcast day

it's cloudy now but it was partly to mostly sunny until noon.

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. We have an AO-/NAO-

I thought climate change was supposed to get rid of these.... at least it doesn't happen in the winter anymore.

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I wouldn’t put anything past him. Back during the winter, he purposely posted maps in degrees Celsius and snow in centimeters to make them seem colder and snowier hoping no one would notice. The man is twisted 

that's absolutely hilarious because I remember in one of his rants years ago he yelled about how much he hates the metric system lol