TriPol
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Everything posted by TriPol
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Why do you think the EURO is so far off-base?
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The Blizzard Warning goes into effect at 1 pm tomorrow.
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I think what's at issue here is A: How much precip falls B: How much of that preceip is frozen I've seen anywhere from 1 inch to 3.5 inches of precip over NYC.
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A sub 980 low on or close to the benchmark in mid-late February in NYC always delivers. Once we're talking about 18-24 inch snowstorms, 1888, 1978, 2006, 2016... they're all in the conversation.
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Congrats, man. You've been wanting this storm for a while. Hope you enjoy it.
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It's insane that a "realistic" scenario for NYC is two feet of snow. I love it.
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https://townersweatherpage.blogspot.com/p/weather-model-run-times.html Just so everyone has the ability to see this. It's a bit old and doesn't include the 6z and 18z times of the EURO as well as the run times of the AI versions of the GFS and EURO, but it's still somewhat helpful:
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That happened for Sandy too. People were in denial. We knew what was going to happen two weeks out.
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Dude - every model agrees with the NAM.
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And Tuesday
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Maybe we get a foot.
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1996 isn't even in the top 5 snowfalls at Central Park anymore.
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They've actually been pretty spot on this year with snow measuring at Central Park.
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I think we break the record. I think we break 2006 and maybe 2016's record.
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How is it possible for the NAM to outdo itself every run?
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With the sREFs, the NAM, and the HRRR all on board giving us an absolutely historical blizzard and the NWS telling us 13 - 18 inches, I have no clue why TV meteorologists are still saying "6 - 10 inches." Are they really hugging the EURO this much and think everything is going to come around to support the EURO?
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In a different thread.
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Bombogenesis. Once this thing goes offshore it explode.
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There was talk of closing this thread earlier in the week because the chances were so small that anything would come of it. Now Atlantic City could get... 4 feet of snow.
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Beautiful.
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This is the most west the low has been over the past few runs.
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Doubt there will be any school on Monday.
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We shall see if the GFS can score a coup.
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The NAM moves sooooo slow...
