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A potentially historic winter storm will impact the Tri-State
area today into Monday. This is a dangerous situation with
blizzard conditions expected to develop tonight.
All guidance has converged on the evolution, track, and
intensity of the system. There are some subtle differences with
the global models taking a 970 mb low close to the 40N/70W
benchmark by Monday morning, while the hires models are slightly
farther west. The latter could be the difference for even
higher snowfall amounts than currently forecast.
Low pressure will quickly develop off along the North Carolina
coast this morning and rapidly intensify this evening into
Monday morning as it slowly lifts north-north east towards the
40N/70W benchmark. The 00Z ECMWF has come into better agreement
as it has generally been on the eastern envelope of the operational
guidance. This slight shift has resulted in the model QPF coming
more into line with the current forecast. Forecast liquid equivalent
amounts are mainly between 1.5 and 2 inches. Initially, snow
ratios will start out 10:1 or even a bit lower today, then
increasing to 12-14:1 by daybreak Monday as colder air wraps
around the system. NBM snow ratios have been consistently too
high through the event from start to finish. While deep-layered
lift in the snow growth region (-10 to -20C) favors dendritic
growth and high ratios, high winds will likely result in fracturing
of the crystals, lowering rates. Putting this all together,
expect 1 to 2 ft across the tri-state. This is up a few inches
from the last forecast.
On the higher end, the NBM (01Z) supports 23 to 30 inches
across the area, due to a bit more QPF and the aforementioned
higher ratios. Its 90th percentile supports close to 3 ft across
much of the area. The NAMNest is also on the higher end with 2
to 3 inches of liquid equivalent. This is likely due to its more
westward track. The 06Z HRRR which is similar in its track is
very much in line with the current forecast. However, a
reasonable worst case could put totals up to 3 ft. While the
highest totals are expected along the coast, heavier bands of
snow (strong frontogenetic forcing) can rotate inland and
usually on the cold air side of the best forcing. These bands
are ofter a challenge to forecast and often leads to localized
higher amounts.
Light snow, or a mix of rain and snow, will develop this
morning, mainly from NYC and points west. This initially is
associated with an inverted trough extending back to the NW
across the lower Great Lakes. In fact, as the coastal low
deepens later today, there may even be some drying out at the
leading edge of the precipitation shield. It may take until this
early this evening for steadier snow to arrive at the coast and
then overspread the remainder of the area. The heaviest snow
will occur during the overnight hours with 1-2"/hr rates and at
times as high 3"+/hr. The bulk of the snow will come from 7 pm
this evening to 7 am Monday. Snow this heavy combined with
strong winds will result in whiteout conditions. Visibilities
are expected to be below 1/4 mile for much of this time. Bands
of moderate to heavy snow will continue into Monday morning
within the comma head of the storm (typically to the N and W of
the center of low pressure). These lingering bands will diminish
as the low pulls away Monday afternoon.
There is also a chance of a few lightning strikes in the heavier
banding tonight into Monday morning. While not included in the
forecast, it cannot be ruled out.
Winds will be quite strong with this storm. Model soundings
show boundary layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent
mixing. Coastal locations can expect to see gusts up 45 to 55
mph, possibly even stronger across far eastern LI and southeast
CT up to 60 or 65 mph. Inland areas will be weaker, but should
see frequent gusts 35 to 45 mph. The highest winds will occur
tonight into the first half of Monday.
The blizzard warnings were expanded to include Orange and Putnam
counties in the Lower Hudson valley due higher confidence in
considerable falling snow, strong winds, and poor visibility.
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25+? No. 20+? Yes. I'm thinking this storm is more west than east. I think that with how explosive it will be, will give 2-3 inch per hour snowfalls under some really awesome deathbands. I think from 8 pm - 8 am is our window. Say we get a few inches before that and a few inches after that. I think this breaks records.
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