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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    Still to come
  2. NJwx85
    There has been no sleet in Rockland. I live 2 miles North of 287/87 near the Palisades and it’s been all snow all day.
  3. NJwx85
    I’m well over a foot already. Probably going to finish close to 20”.
  4. NJwx85
    Looks like the mix line has retreated South the past few frames.
  5. NJwx85
    Right now it’s near 78 in NJ
  6. NJwx85
    I’m up over a foot. Still crazy rates here and no sleet in sight. Already made 2 passes with the snow blower.
  7. NJwx85
    I’m up over 5” already. Location is near New City in Central Rockland County.
  8. NJwx85
    I have over 3” here in Rockland already. Plow just went past.
  9. NJwx85
    01z HRRR 1hr snowfall rates
  10. NJwx85
    Because this is a Miller B. This was the only option unless it stayed way suppressed to the South.
  11. NJwx85
    The NAM is actually a touch warmer. At this point I think it’s just noise.
  12. NJwx85
  13. NJwx85
    The HRRR has a huge band of 1-2” per hour rates that approaches from the South at 17-18z and would persist for many hours.
  14. NJwx85
  15. NJwx85
    LOL Very few people here actually live in NYC proper.
  16. NJwx85
    Once again, this is confined to areas well South of where most people here live.
  17. NJwx85
    Everyone should be ripping by 9am.
  18. NJwx85
    To be fair that only shows mixing in the Southern third of the forum and barely at that.
  19. NJwx85
    I think the bigger issue is that the mid level warning will hurt rates quite a bit. Some areas might start off at 12 or 15 to 1 and go down to half that by sunset.
  20. NJwx85
    Most of what falls before sunrise is probably virga.
  21. NJwx85
    cap cod sounds like an elegant fish dish.
  22. NJwx85
    Couldn’t agree more. I think the heavier rates will help to overcome the borderline mid level warming. The charge to sleet probably only happens once a majority of the precip has already fallen, sometime after 02-03z.
  23. NJwx85
    Nice trend on the 3k NAM
  24. NJwx85
    The NAM is prone to very large run to run swings, even in the short term and it usually overdoes everything which leads to wild solutions at times. I can think of only one event where it was very different from the consensus and ended up being right. Very few mets use it to make a forecast. It’s primarily fun to look at. It does have its usefulness but I certainly wouldn’t favor it over other guidance.
  25. NJwx85
    The UKMET has a warm bias so seeing it this cold is a red flag that the warning might be slightly overdone.
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