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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. 17/7/2 (May: 1/0/0) June: 2/1/0 July: 3/1/1 August: 2/1/0 September: 3/2/0 October: 5/2/1 November: 1/0/0
  2. Spring 2018 Banter and Complaint Office

    Just gotta wait out the rest of this garbage decade. There’s been some good stretches, but as a whole, it’s sucked pretty bad. CFS dash generally likes June, but after the season so far, not seeing any reason to be remotely optimistic about anything
  3. 2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

    I found this graph/chart interesting. It is only active tornado days in Kansas, but with there seems to be a clear oscillation in activity in the limited data set we have.
  4. 2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

    I think that is contaminated. If you look at reflectivity(or MSLP) on the 12z NAM, you'll see that the NAM has a pretty significant looking MCS barreling down the warm front at 00z. All the soundings pulled ahead of this MCS(adjacent counties) are likely influenced by the convectively induced area of low pressure associated with the complex. This locally enhances wind profiles in the inflow region immediately in front of the MCS. The sounding I included is east of Champaign, and is probably more representative of the warm frontal environment on the NAM, which is still sufficient if you ask me. EDIT: that large area of subsidence from 850-500mb may also key into this area being an inflow region, however I am not sure on that one.
  5. 2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

    umm no? That's a separate event. I'm talking west for IA and MO. The Sunday event and maybe monday?(idk it looks like garbage to me) are different setups on different days that just happen to involve the same boundary. The NAM/GFS have backed off a bit for Saturday, but still looks okay.
  6. 2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

    NAM/GFS 12z runs look nice along the warm front on Saturday, but the position and to a degree, the orientation of this boundary is still up in the air.
  7. That 12z euro was TERRIBLE. In fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a worse 10 day run.
  8. Probably. We aren’t at record lows(yet) and still have the rest of may, June and July to go. Shots at 1000 closing fast. Best guess I have right now is 800-900
  9. Guys! The ERTAF is showing some hope in the long range! http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/
  10. Well the primary jet really likes the northern conus and Canada, so I think sustained periods of AOA 40kts flow over the plains will be hard to come by. Thinking “day-of” events, upslope and boundaries are going to rule the 2nd half of may. However, with sufficient moisture and instability, this can work.
  11. May 2018 General Discussion

    Weather next week looks nice with upper 70s/low 80s every day. Severe wx pattern thru early June leaves me slightly optimistic. Looks like we should have several waves move into the west at the least. Pattern early on could be hindered by ULL pestering over the gulf, but good luck getting any decent predictability on that feature this far out.
  12. Spring 2018 Banter and Complaint Office

    First 2 initials and last name. Probably shoulda clarified that lol.
  13. Spring 2018 Banter and Complaint Office

    Changed my name to hlcater because quite frankly, my old one isn't really very practical any more, and probably never will be. This one is much more versatile.
  14. May 1-4 Severe Threats

    The 10% went bye bye, and for pretty good reason. Latest CAMs don’t really have much going on in the instability dept m probably due to the MCS party that was going on down south overnight. Any storms that do form will have limited time on the WF. Probably gonna sit out unless observations give me a real good reason to go down there.
  15. May 1-4 Severe Threats

    Worried about extent of morning convection potentially reinforcing boundary and pushing event down and out of IA into Northern Missery. If the morning convection is limited and the boundary is able to lift northward into Iowa, I'll see if I can make it down there, but I can really only hope to leave a 3pm at the earliest, which is kind of a late start unfortunately. But should everyone go right, things look nice. Expecting the SPC to bring the enhanced back over our area for damaging winds, but I'd personally leave the tornado at 5% for the 06z outlook and maybe even the 13z to see how the morning convection situation tends to sort itself out.
  16. May 1-4 Severe Threats

    Radar really lit up over the past hour or so. Looks like the area in between 80 and 20 are going to get trained for quite awhile. Tons of lightning with these storms
  17. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Things seeming to grow upscale into an MCS now. As such, probably safe to call the event for any particularly strong or photogenic tornadoes.
  18. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    New post; Apparently "abusive" users indicates that those 6 IPs were repeatedly downloading data from NCEP servers.
  19. May 1-4 Severe Threats

    I might have to bite tomorrow as both NAMs are trolling the triple point in S IA tomorrow.
  20. 2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

    The triple point looks interesting in Iowa tomorrow. SPC even has a 10% hatched there on the D2. Of course triple point concerns apply, upscale growth, storm motions into the cool sector etc. but if it looks good enough, I’ll see if I can find time to head to south central Iowa tomorrow. Regardless, convection seems to organize into 1 or 2 MCSs with time.
  21. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    (FWIW)HRRR isn't terrible for 18z tomorrow, at least relative to other models. This sounding from W OK wouldn't be ideal for tornadoes but it is an 18z sounding. However I feel like a deep veering(w/ little or no VBV) profile like that would support supercells if nothing else? Also noteworthy is the 30kt LLJ at 18z, also higher than other models. Does this make me optimistic for tomorrow? Not quite yet.
  22. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Looks like OK got it's first tor this evening. It was right on the OK/KS border and from this tweet, looks visually impressive.
  23. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Apparently someone confirmed a large tornado in there. Warning from the NWS has PDS wording. Also the couplet has tightened significantly. EDIT: SN report of a large wedge tornado on that storm, but you know how accurate SN reports can be, especially since there's only one.