Jump to content

hlcater

Members
  • Content count

    1,397
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by hlcater

  1. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    I still haven’t had anything more than pixie dust so far. Still just a dusting.
  2. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    IC looks to be stuck in a localized band of subsidence for the next few hours. 3-4 if the HRRR is to be believed. This will probably shave an inch or two off my totals.
  3. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    HRRR continues to dry out the main snowband here. Only 2-4" by 5 am tomorrow. Down from what was 6-8" on the 12z run. I smell an underperformer. Call for Iowa City? 4 inches.
  4. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    What I wouldn't do for a windfield like that in May.
  5. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    Freezing drizzle in IC. Roads and sidewalks are horrible already. I nearly slipped on the sidewalk coming back from class. If we get any significant amount of snow on top of this respectable sheet of ice, traveling will be very treacherous to say the least.
  6. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    I’m in Iowa City for this one, so I’m all for that!
  7. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    DVN will need to seriously consider WSWs for the NW 1/3rd of their CWA. Challenging forecast of whether or not the 00z guidance’s drastic shift is to be believed.
  8. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    From 12z? Probably a good 40 miles.
  9. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    And more juiced. I’ve only seen a kuchera map for the euro, but it has widespread 8-10” amounts in Iowa
  10. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    The models shifted south like I strongly thought it would, but I don't believe its for the same reasons that I had outlined. The changes are with the vort max itself, which shouldn't necessarily be affected by surface snowcover, especially as it is embedded in strong SW flow from that large upper trough to the west. It's clear that the vort has moved significantly south but I can't figure out why. Unless the models just handled things that poorly, but even that seems implausible as the shift is coming within 24 hours. Interesting case if these trends end up verifying.
  11. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    Yea I'm in IC for this one unfortunately with no chance of going back to CR, even though their total may double ours if things set up right. Either way, with these trends even IC may see a few inches out of this when nearly every model was forecasting a big rainer for here even just this morning.
  12. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    I was starting to lose faith in my initial SE call. But it's definitely happening today.
  13. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    The 18z Euro just came in and it's wayyyyy south. Like normal with the euro maps I post in here, this isn't mine. Seems that models are picking up on the widespread snowcover hanging things up? Whatever the cause, every 18z run has moved south in some capacity. In fact, it's so much of an outlier I'm almost tempted to ignore it and I probably would if it wasn't an outlier in my favor lol.
  14. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    Yea GFS went even further north. FV3 looks like it will continue to come in north as well.
  15. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    Ukie remains south and colder than the rest of guidance along with the NAMs and the Euro to an extent. Against the GFS, the FV3 and the CMC. I *still* think we see this trend colder/south, but I guess we will have to see.
  16. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    Models have actually trended NORTH so far on 00z with the exception of the Ukie and the NAM
  17. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    Yea I don’t really care how much snow I get so long as it isn’t freaking rain.
  18. hlcater

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    Of note the HRRR still has me getting 6 additional inches. I’m not entirely sure I can believe that. I think we get 3-4 more inches for a total of 6-7”.
  19. hlcater

    January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential

    Am I wrong to think this trends south due to the fact the system is shearing out as it moves east and that the snow and cold(especially if cold is under estimated) could shunt the baroclinic zone south into Missouri? I think models are cutting the system a bit too hard.
  20. hlcater

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    Including LES I presume?
  21. hlcater

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    I’ve got more or less 2” on the ground here and it’s coming down hard at the moment. Probably 1”/hr at least.
  22. hlcater

    Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    The GFS's response to the Euro. 480 thickness over IA/IL
  23. hlcater

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    That event wasn't nearly as widespread with the warnings. Infinitely more impressive in the areas that it did hit however.
  24. hlcater

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    It's been a long time since I've seen this.
  25. hlcater

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    Someone at DVN is pretty hyped.
×