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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I did too. I thought the dry air from the trough to the west would eventually be injected into the inner core of Michael, aided by that not-so-pesky 20kts of SWly shear. Either by luck or by resilience, the core managed to deflect the dry air and never entrained it. So while the core did experience some assymetry due to subsidence and SWly shear, the steady strengthening probably would have halted with dry air. I HIGHLY doubt, no matter how robust the convection was, that it would have been able to outpace the double whammy of both shear and dry air. Expecting a dry air intrusion was not too far fetched of a prediction either, because it seems like every gulf system takes a gulp of the usually copious dry air at some point, and with that trough to the west, I for one, thought it was almost inevitable.
  2. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I wouldn't say nailed it, because you can tell I wasn't really that confident in my claim in the first sentence, but yes, I had a general idea that those strong convective bursts that were observed would probably cause the storm to intensify rather quickly. Even then, however, I was only really expecting 120-125mph on the high end, not 155. Right idea yes, but I'm still kinda shocked at the extent to which this strengthened.
  3. hlcater

    October 2018 General Discussion

    First flakes here in CR. Just flurries and not accumulating, but I’ll take it!
  4. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Is it just me, or are some of these trees completely debarked? If so, that is a very impressive feat.
  5. hlcater

    October 2018 General Discussion

    https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSQuadCities/status/1050778822948339712
  6. hlcater

    October 2018 General Discussion

    Looks like there's a real chance for some snow around here monday night. Every model is doing it. Looks like a typical october snow, where evap cooling is the rule of the day. Shouldn't amount to much, but this is a solid shot at first flakes. Apparently there were flurries around early this morning to our east, but I didnt see any.
  7. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Panama City Beach experienced Cat 3 winds per this instrument on the bridge.
  8. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Makes sense because this was in Panama City outside of the worst part of the eyewall. The city seems to have sustained C2-C3 level damage. Perhaps far eastern neighborhoods like Callaway(?) getting into C4. I've seen some relatively impressive damage pictures from there, while obviously paling in comparison to Mexico Beach.
  9. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Trees bent as the base but not snapped? Incredibly odd. From Josh in Panama City
  10. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Some of the tree damage(even inland!) is extremely impressive and reminds me of a EF2-3 tornado. Even a couple images with debarked trees. Here's a nearly complete forest blowdown near Tyndall.
  11. hlcater

    Michael Banter Thread

    It's okay, I thought it was funny.
  12. hlcater

    Michael Banter Thread

    Thick skull too apparently
  13. hlcater

    Michael Banter Thread

    I’m talking in the grand scheme of things. There’s definitely 2 camps on Twitter.
  14. hlcater

    Michael Banter Thread

    What’s interesting is that there’s 2 camps to the argument here. 1 camp is arguing that a C5 was justifiable based on the recon data just prior to landfall and the other is saying Michael was only a C2. The only plausible reason I can think of that would allow these ideas to coexist can only be summed up as “humanity.”
  15. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Have we heard anything from the far eastern side of Panama City or Tyndall AFB? Tyndall and Mexico Beach are probably the 2 hardest hit areas.
  16. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I posted it like 4 hours ago, but could probably use a refresh.
  17. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I don't think I've EVER seen anything like this. Video of the stadium effect in Michael's eye from ground level. It's displayed as a link because the preview took up way too much space. https://www.facebook.com/Stefan1126/videos/10156491591296138/ Here's a really bad screengrab to get an idea.
  18. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Though if they put it in a VDM, it is likely the people on the plane feel as if it's legitimate. I also realize there probably isn't a concrete answer to the question above, just gotta wait and see if Michael joins the club in post analysis.
  19. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Will they use that 138kts from the recon VDM as evidence to upgrade Michael to C5 in post analysis? EDIT: I see now that it was rain flagged on TropicalTidbits, so while it was in a VDM, they probably won't end up using it.
  20. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Can you post the full VDM? I'm dumb and don't know where to find them .
  21. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    SN had a few chasers in the eye. Especially ones near the Tyndall AFB AWOS. Maybe they even saw sunlight? That was an incredibly warm and clear eye.
  22. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    No idea where he got 160mph... Dont think OFCL is saying that either.
  23. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    What’s the wind based on? They haven’t found 130kts have they?
  24. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    What’s the wind based on? They haven’t found 130kts have they?
  25. hlcater

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Eye is a still very stable 20nmi across. Just about optimum diameter as far as both wind speed and diameter go. No sign of an EWRC either. Chuggin’ along.
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