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About NWLinnCountyIA

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Hiawatha, Eastern IA

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  1. My own lol
  2. Really garbage video
  3. Saw tree damage east of Central City, with many uprooted trees and some snapped. Didn't see any structures hit. However, police had prarieburg completely blocked off.
  4. Prarieburg tornado, three of my pictures of it. Second one has a horizontal vortex developing to the left, third has it completely.
  5. The biggest concern(At least in my eyes) are the pretty pathetic CAPE profiles for this time of year. Shear values are fairly impressive, noting the LLJ as you mentioned, but mediocre lapse rates less than 7 C/km yield a tall, but ultimately an extremely narrow CAPE profile relatively unfavorable for strong, robust updrafts. This is likely due in part to multiple rounds of convection in the area before hand(as evident on the GFS in particular) would limit the intensity of new thunderstorm development. That said, if lapse rates improve or we eliminate convection concerns, a fairly strong complex/line of storms should evolve given the favorable shear parameters. I say line because(maybe my expectations are too high) directional shear looks average or slightly less than, with most of the SRH coming from speed shear generated by an impressive LLJ as well as surface wind vectors not as perpendicular to the boundary as I'd like.
  6. It gets more active when we get a significant system, just look at the 130+ pages for Hurricane Matthew. Not really much to discuss other than rain in regards to Cindy.
  7. TLE = Time lagged ensemble?
  8. Doesn't look horribly organized either, which would be a good sign. But its also the HRRR at FH18, so take that with a grain of salt.
  9. After looking at model runs(especially on the NAM and NAM 3km) I have decided that the variable that will most likely make or break saturday is the organization of the convection Friday evening. If we get only 1 MCS/disorganized mulicell activity and it is confined over western IA, atmosphere should be able to recover. However, if we get more than 1 MCS or a strong cold pool, which would overrun most of the would-be warm sector, Saturday is likely to get shunted further south and east. This scenario is evident on the 00z NAM. Location and to a lesser extent intensity of saturday hinges on what storm mode transpires tomorrow evening.
  10. This morning's NAM was interesting, I would expect, at the very least, a significant MCS, with perhaps a supercell window early on due to fairly decent low level curvature, especially on the 12z NAM. This is also evident on the GFS, but not as great of an extent. Also typical for June, instability and moisture are not issues.
  11. wait, how do you get the DOWs on there?
  12. This was the Tornado NE of Cheyenne earlier, awesome shot:
  13. The southern most cell looks extremely promising with a very strong midlevel meso, a massive BWER, 50kft+ ET and no interference to the south. Could put down a big one.
  14. GOES 16 has 90 second rapid-scan satellite imagery over WY/CO/NE today. Here is a link on College of DuPage if anyone is interested. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-96-0
  15. Gotta hope the potential rain chances mid next week and around next weekend show up, but as I said yesterday, general chances for rain seem to improve going forward, which is nice because some is needed. Although 12 and 18z today have no been nearly as encouraging....