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About NWLinnCountyIA

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    Hiawatha, Eastern IA

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  1. 45 and drizzle. At least it's still March 20th, hopefully the rest of spring is warmer. Oh wait.
  2. Really? I was like 5 miles south of it at that point and saw nothing, not even a funnel. After it started to pass Muscatine the storm went to LP mode, so little/no potential for tornadoes there.
  3. Several cams fire a QLCS right away, which would lead to some beautifully photogenic QLCS tornadoes. At this time this is my biggest concern. My second biggest being morning convection lying around from tonight. However could be an okay day with a slightly less impressive parameter space than today and similar caveats regarding too much convection. Very conditional setup hinging on current storm evolution and storm evolution during the event itself.
  4. Dug a little deeper and found a similar picture from spearman 5/22/16, pic above is probably fake
  5. Ran a reverse image search and found no matches, so I'm gonna assume that is a legit picture.
  6. That TX storm is now maintaining two mesocyclones at the same time, the old cycle which has yet to dissipate and the new cycle.
  7. Kinda looks like it's on its way to occluding does it not?
  8. CINH caused by the earlier storms no doubt
  9. With a crazy worked over environment present, for the most part, yes it does. Only TOR potential areas I see left are the RR and southward and the warm front in KS, of course any cells that remain in OK do have some potential, but TOR potential as a whole in OK is waning fairly quickly as remaining storms die off.
  10. Kinda broad attm, and only has about 15 minutes before the cell moves over the warm front and loses tornado potential, but if it can put something down with a couplet like that, watch out
  11. Likely Tornado on the TX/OK border with a possible debris signature and G2G shear ~130mph
  12. What I am noticing in NW OK over the past several scans out of VNX is that a few cells are starting to become the dominant updrafts, or it at least appears this way on reflectivity trends. Whether we can get cells to become dominant is the million dollar question as the greater tornado threat hinges on this occurring. If this doesnt occur, and we have 500 weaker cells competing, significant tornado chances will remain low.
  13. Not so sure about that. While the environment here is favorable, no doubt about it, along with high instability, the VWPs here aren't nearly as good as the ones that are forecast to be present over NW OK and KS later today. Despite this, tornadoes are definitely possible in this area, hence the watch. I think large hail due to steep lapse rates and RFD damaging wind will probably be the greatest threat, but tornado potential will need to be watched as well. I don't have time to check mesoanalysis and forecast soundings, hence the lack of concrete numbers, I just know that conditions in this ballpark are forecast to be in place.
  14. Also mentioned in the outlook, but the biggest thing causing uncertainty is the convective evolution today, until that becomes clear, I can't foresee the SPC changing much, however it could go either way if things trend upscale or discrete.
  15. I would say if they were to do a moderate risk, it would very likely be for wind. With parameters like the ones in place tomorrow, wind is probably going to be the biggest threat. However, with 0-1km SRH values in the 200-300m2s2 range. Tornado potential is certainly there, and would be maximized if a discrete/semi-discrete storm mode becomes preferred.