hlcater

You'd think that the amount of snow we have going into mid december would guarantee a white christmas, but the pattern going into the holidays isnt exactly favorable for snowpack retention. Going 40/60 odds, respectively.

If this turns into glacier, its not going anywhere fast. Especially with indications of subsequent dusters/clippers following behind. Probably 13-14" OTG here.

Some reason to believe week 3 might be a return to a cooler pattern which is why I posted in the other thread that the lead system this weekend matters so much as it would help mitigate warming in week 2 in the northern half of the sub.

Need the clipper this weekend to trend stronger A-la the euro to ward off scary evil spirits (the baroclinic zone). Stronger lead wave suppresses everything that follows it leading to a less amplified, further SW storm track.

10.2" on the stick. Perhaps another inch yet to go per guidance and radar trends.

Probably 9" or so with the best rates of the event underway. Think 12" is probably gonna be optimistic but we should beat 10"

Dont really see anything to dislike on the 00z runs. Gonna go with a potentially conservative guess of 8".

bring it

Rumor is they're gonna do one more pass.

Regarding EWRC: Interested to see if that large area of subsidence between the core and the feeder bands acts to delay formation and consolidation of that outer band into a secondary eyewall.

One thing I want to comment on here is that the instability of the eye/trochoidal wobbling that was present earlier now no longer is. The eye has warmed, become more stable, and is now definitively moving northeast towards Jamaica as a steady state or strengthening sub-910mb storm. Terrifying stuff unfolding here.

Unfortunately, with atmospheric conditions progressively becoming more favorable with each passing hour, I do not see a scenario where Melissa does not efficiently achieve its MPI. Land interaction or internal structural changes are the only limiting factors until it's picked up by the trough in a few days. I am trying to be optimistic for dry air intrusions or a well timed ERC but that might be wishful thinking. Neither is a given.

Struggling to find a scenario where this isnt a Maria/Mitch level catastrophe for Jamaica and the current tail radar/IR look is not helping that narrative.

DVN was considering headlines last night but ended up deferring. 12z guidance so far showing a bit more eastward extension of accumulating snow than previous guidance cycles have. Think even 1-3" results in a high impact event when coupled with gusts of 55-60mph for several hours. Think WWA is the best fit currently but wouldn't be shocked with a game time blizzard warning if the 12z guidance is a bit closer to reality. Curious to see what they end up doing. Doubly true when you consider that an increase in precip/snow rates will more effectively mix down that monster LLJ.

Live look at this storm, and the season as a whole