PowellVolz

Ended up with around 2” but the big hailer that moved through Roan Co to W Knoxville fell apart around interstate 75 just 5 miles to my west or I would have been pushing 3-4”. One of my wife’s FB friends from Kingston area showed a picture of hail bigger than golf ball. .

Did it snow in the mountains last night or today? .

Hard to tell without being there but regardless a cool video .

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Airport just gusted to 64 .

Sun came out in Knoxville and you could definitely feel the change .

Very surprised this cell SE of Memphis isn’t Tor warned. .

MRX… Later in the morning, a second round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop that could pose a severe threat to the area. This activity is shown by the hi-res models to initiate across N AL and the eastern portions of Middle TN around 12-14Z, then intensify as it moves east. Increasing MLCAPE through the day peaks around 1500 J/kg around 18Z, along with 0-3km SRH values of 400-500 and 0-1km SRH around 200. This will be conducive to supercells, as shown by the updraft helicity product of the HREF, and with LCL heights under 1000m, a tornado threat will be possible. A greater threat is expected from large hail, as midlevel lapse rates will be steepening and the WBZ height falling through the afternoon as the upper low approaches. Some midlevel dry air and surface to midlevel theta-E difference of 25-30 deg C suggests a damaging wind threat as well. Bottom line, we expect an active severe weather day tomorrow, mainly between the hours of 10 AM and 6 PM. Some uncertainties with this severe potential are how the early morning precip may limit destabilization later in the morning, and if convective development in GA will have an upstream stabilizing effect and suppress the northward spread of low level moisture. .

Tomorrow is looking interesting for ETn…. SPC… Eastern KY and TN... Early day storms may produce hail across the eastern half of TN and KY as large-scale lift and instability increase. The main threat is expected to be during the afternoon, ahead of the strong vorticity maximum, where clearing/heating takes place and shear is strong. While models vary regarding how much instability will develop, this area will be very favorable for an arcing line of low-topped supercells, with hail and tornado risk. An upgrade in risk category may be considered in later outlooks .

@Matthew70 took this picture of my lawn about 3 weeks ago. Landscaping has come in now. .

Same here. Lawn looks great, about to apply another app of preemerg .

Got lucky and picked up three cells that moved over me this morning. Lots of lightning, actually woke me up. .

ETn will need the warm front to get out of the way earlier in the morning and take the elevated convection with it. Will be interesting to see what happens if it does clear out during the day. .

Frost on the tall grass this morning, 35 degrees .

Are we still thinking summer could be dryer than normal? .

Unbelievable .

Unbelievable .

The wind was blowing pretty good this morning. .

I gotcha. I read you wrong, my bad. .

Are you talking about SEC teams only or all of NCAA? Getting beat by a non conference team shouldn’t effect a SEC conference win streak. I wouldn’t think. .

The SEC win streak is still active but the overall win streak is gone. .

...Mid-MS/lower OH river valleys... Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front by the mid morning hours across parts of southern MO/northern AR. Mean storm motions along the front will favor a quick transition from quasi-discrete cells to more linear storm modes. Convection will continue to grow upscale as it approaches the mid-MS river valley amid increasing low-level moisture and daytime heating. Increasing low-level flow (up to 50-60 knots between 925-850 mb) will likely support bowing segments and the potential for widespread damaging winds. The potential for multiple 65+ knot wind reports and/or significant wind damage support an upgrade to a wind-driven Moderate risk for portions of the mid-MS/lower-OH river valleys. Elongated 0-3 km hodographs ahead of the line will also support embedded circulations. The warm advection regime and broad scale ascent ahead of the line may support a few more discrete cells across the lower OH river valley by mid to late afternoon. This potential may be conditional on the degree of destabilization that can occur behind early-morning rain/weak thunderstorms that should exit the region by early afternoon. However, if discrete convection can become established, all hazards will be possible, including the potential for large hail and strong tornadoes. ...Lower MS river valley... The surface cold front will likely lag to the west across the Texarkana/lower MS valley regions, but this will allow for several hours of daytime heating between cloud breaks and continued boundary-layer moistening amid low-level theta-e advection. With 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop a deep, moist boundary layer will likely support upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon. Glancing upper-level ascent from the synoptic wave to the north combined with isentropic ascent and lift along any confluence axes and/or lingering outflow boundaries from overnight convection, should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorms by mid to late afternoon. Adequate deep-layer shear and strong flow in the 0-3 km layer will be favorable for supercells with all severe hazards possible. Some solutions hint at forecast ESRH values between 300-400 m2/s2, which will support the potential for strong tornadoes. The signal for isolated convection is notable in recent CAM solutions and in ensemble guidance, warranting an upgrade to a Moderate risk where the tornado potential is highest .

A lot more rain today than expected. Almost 2” in Knoxville. On the bright side this should end any fire threats left in the mountains .

And @jaxjagman also .

Very nice. Love your breakdowns of severe events .