janetjanet998

0400 PM SNOW MORRIS 41.36N 88.42W 12/29/2020 E2.0 INCH GRUNDY IL EMERGENCY MNGR SNOWFALL OVER THE PAST HOUR.

going to be a long day Sat/radar showing discrete storms developing over the gulf stream off GA and SC moving NNE towards eastern NC as modeled

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST THU DEC 24 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST SC AND SOUTHERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 241716Z - 241945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...WHILE THE NEAR-TERM TORNADO RISK MAY REMAIN MARGINAL, IT WILL INCREASE INTO A HIGHER PROBABILITY RISK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN EXACTLY THAT THREAT WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO WATCH IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT. DISCUSSION...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION FROM ROBESON TO COLUMBUS COUNTY, NC HAVE HAD EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THESE HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED BY RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH GREATER THAN 300 M2/S2. SCANT SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY (MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG) IS PREVALENT AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AMID LOW 60S DEW POINTS. THIS HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO, INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NC. WITH TIME, GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST SC SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NC. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN CONFLUENCE BANDS ARE ANTICIPATED AND THE RISK FOR SUSTAINING SUPERCELLS SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. ..GRAMS/GUYER.. 12/24/2020

now a second cell warned BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1212 PM EST THU DEC 24 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN BLADEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHWESTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1245 PM EST. * AT 1212 PM EST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CHADBOURN, OR 8 MILES WEST OF WHITEVILLE, MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

new day 1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST THU DEC 24 2020 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WITH TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ..EASTERN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES MULTI-ROUND SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA, WHERE SEMI-DISCRETE WARM SECTOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD BE FOLLOWED BY A WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. MULTI-LAYER CLOUD COVER REMAINS PREVALENT AT MIDDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION OCCURRING NEAR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WHERE LOW/MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT. NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD-RACING BANDS OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT BECOMES ROOTED WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER, ALTHOUGH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A LINGERING WARM LAYER ALOFT LEADS TO SOME TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS, EXTREMELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, ACCENTUATED BY 55-60 KT IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL AND 300+ 0-1 KM SRH, WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FAST-MOVING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK, PARTICULARLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR/SRH, A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF REGIONAL SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE EVOLVES AND SPREADS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE HAZARD, ALTHOUGH A QLCS-RELATED TORNADO RISK MAY EXIST AS WELL. ..FLORIDA/GEORGIA A NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA/FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT LATE MORNING IMMEDIATELY PRECEDES AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING/DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AHEAD OF THE FRONT/CONVECTIVE LINE, WITH SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION OTHERWISE REMAINING MINIMAL FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN GEORGIA. LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO SLOWLY VEER WITH WIND PROFILES TRENDING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL OVER TIME. EVEN WITH RELATIVELY MODEST BUOYANCY, THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF UPSCALE-GROWING QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHIFTING EASTWARD/TENDING TO DIMINISH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET. ..GUYER/LYONS.. 12/24/2020

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CST THU DEC 24 2020 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SURROUNDING THE "ENHANCED" AREA... ..SUMMARY THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH TORNADOES AND DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. ..SYNOPSIS IN MID/UPPER LEVELS, BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD, IN STEP WITH A HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH. AS ONE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AN UPSTREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER THE MB/ON BORDER -- WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER PERTURBATION INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL TX WILL PIVOT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS THIS OCCURS, A CLOSED 500-MB CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME, ITS CENTER MOVING EASTWARD PAST SDF BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE, THE PRIMARY, OCCLUDED SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION WILL FILL AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY DRAWN ACROSS PARTS OF OH, EASTERN KY/TN, AL, TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOUTH, WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE MID/UPPER CYCLONE CLOSES TO THE WEST, A WEAK, CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AL/NORTHWESTERN GA REGION SHOULD MOVE UP THE FRONT TO THE EASTERN WV/SOUTHWESTERN PA CORRIDOR BY 00Z, BECOMING THE PRIMARY LOW OVER NY TONIGHT AND REACHING SOUTHERN QC BY 12Z. BY THEN, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN PA, THEN OFFSHORE FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS ATLANTIC COAST, HAVING CROSSED SOUTH FL AROUND 06Z. ..EASTERN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND VICINITY WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THIS REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN TWO PRIMARY REGIMES: 1. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MOVING NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM A FAVORABLY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING MARINE BOUNDARY-LAYER REGION OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS CONVECTION WILL CROSS LESSER BUT STILL SUFFICIENT/SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS, AS THE WARM SECTOR MODIFIES AND BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE, AMIDST STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR. WARM-SECTOR DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL OFFSET MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE FROM EASTERN NC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUNDS/OUTER BANKS OF NC, LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE SOUTHERN NC COASTLINE. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE, OFFERING TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. THEN... 2. A NEAR-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION, PRESENTING A MORE-DOMINANT WIND THREAT, BUT WITH SOME LINE-EMBEDDED/QLCS TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. HEIGHT FALLS AND TIGHTENING HEIGHT/THERMAL GRADIENTS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AS THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST. A 65-75 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND SHIFT ACROSS THIS REGION, LEADING TO UNCOMMONLY SIMILAR, 40-50-KT MAGNITUDES OF SHEAR VECTORS IN THE 0-1, 0-3, AND EFFECTIVE LAYERS. DESPITE THE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL, SOUTHERLY LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL FLOW, EVEN VERY SLIGHT HODOGRAPH CURVATURE CONTRIBUTES TO 200-350 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME STILL MORE STABLE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT PAST A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE DELMARVA/MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AT LEAST A MARGINAL WIND AND TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE JUSTIFIED, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE AMBIENT DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE. ..FL/GA SEE THE REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 517, MESOSCALE-DISCUSSION UPDATES FOR THAT, AND SEPARATE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372 FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SEVERE THREAT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE NEAR-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE AND WARM SECTOR OVER THE FL PANHANDLE REGION. THE MAIN BELT OF CONVECTION WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, PRESENTING A THREAT FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE TO BE GREATEST OVER OPEN GULF WATERS NEAR THE LOOP CURRENT, WHERE MARINE THERMAL/MOISTURE FLUXES OPTIMIZE BOUNDARY- LAYER THETA-E. STILL, AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN A NORTHWARD-NARROWING CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE, AS PARTLY MODIFIED PARCELS ADVECT FROM THE GULF. THIS AIR MASS, CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST LAPSE RATES BUT ALSO MINIMAL MLCINH, ALSO MAY SUPPORT MATURATION OF CELLS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE THEY CROSS INTO MORE-STABLE AIR. ..EDWARDS/SMITH.. 12/24/2020

I am trying to find some history of regional Tornado outbreaks (or any tornadoes at all for that matter) in this area on Christmas eve and/or day but I cannot now there were some decent outbreaks after this chart in 2012 and 2015 but those were over the deep south or TN valley and not the Carolinas Late December 2012 North American storm complex https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_December_2012_North_American_storm_complex 31 confirmed only one in NC a EF1 and that was on the 26th ------------------------ Tornado outbreak of December 23–25, 2015 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_December_23–25,_2015 2 weak tornadoes in SC but those were on the 23rd and and looks like not connected with the main outbreak back west

seems like models are slowing the system down some each run allowing better moisture return SB CAPE >1000 now on the 18z NAM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 243 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 345 PM CDT. * AT 243 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER ROCKFORD, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO

per police scanner reports still going on ...but in other areas of the city (isolated) widespread power outages might not help as night falls https://twitter.com/search?q=chicagoscanner&src=recent_search_click&f=live

trying to recall the highest wind gusts i have seen out of these systems 121 MPH for some reason my brain spits out,,not sure if that is correct ..

1225 PM TSTM WND GST BLAIRSTOWN 41.91N 92.08W 08/10/2020 E90 MPH BENTON IA EMERGENCY MNGR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH WITH MAJOR DAMAGE REPORTED IN TOWN.

the VAD in the lower 3km on COD nexlab was interesting and still has 60 kts

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1204 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020 IAC099-123-125-127-157-171-101730- /O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-200810T1730Z/ POWESHIEK IA-MARSHALL IA-MARION IA-TAMA IA-MAHASKA IA-JASPER IA- 1204 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR POWESHIEK...EASTERN MARSHALL...NORTHEASTERN MARION...TAMA... MAHASKA AND EASTERN JASPER COUNTIES... AT 1203 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR TRAER TO NEAR VICTOR TO 6 MILES WEST OF DELTA, MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS. HAZARD...90 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOME AREAS MAY HAVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH!

looks like this is the 2nd wettest calendar day is Peoria 5.19 5.52 May 18, 1927 https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/IL/Peoria/extreme-annual-peoria-precipitation.php also 800 PM HEAVY RAIN E PEORIA 40.74N 89.61W 07/15/2020 M8.00 INCH PEORIA IL PUBLIC RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA

7.2 inches in my dads gauge on the far NE side of Pekin

0640 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N PEORIA INTERNATIONA 40.70N 89.68W 07/15/2020 M6.48 INCH PEORIA IL TRAINED SPOTTER RAIN SINCE 1PM

worst flooding in quite a while here 2.85 inches on 1 hour at the airport last ob if it is correct 5 total City and SE metro hit hard Peoria, Pekin, East Peoria. Morton and smaller towns hit hard edit: several on facebook reporting 6 inch rain gauge overflowing NW side of Morton

Tornado watch issued at 2:10 Meso update on that watch at 2:13 3 mins..got to be the fastest ever TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 210 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...AN REMNANT MCV AND ITS RELATED STRONG DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS ORGANIZING LINEAR BOWING STORMS THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ASIDE FROM MORE PREVALENT DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS. SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 373... VALID 151913Z - 152015Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 373 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO, ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TORNADO WATCH 373 FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW NORTH OF COU IN CENTRAL MO, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL IL NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A STRENGTHENING TREND WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS, PARTICULARLY THE STORM IN TAZEWELL COUNTY. AS EVIDENCED BY THE 17Z ILX SOUNDING, INSTABILITY IS MODEST IN THIS REGION, BUT VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONG. AS A RESULT, MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE/ROTATE, CONTRIBUTING TO A SLIGHTLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE SUPPORTED BY THE INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY, INITIALLY ELEVATED STORMS (LIKE THOSE WEST OF TAZEWELL COUNTY) MAY BE ABLE TO TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE-BASED IF MID-LEVEL ROTATION PERSISTS AND/OR AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE. CONSEQUENTLY, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0491 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1142 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020 Areas affected......Central Missouri to central Illinois... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 151545Z - 152145Z Summary...Flash flooding is possible as showers and thunderstorms expand across central Illinois into north central Missouri. Rainfall totals between now and 22z are expected to be 1-3 inches with isolated maxima to 5 inches. Discussion...Widespread showers and thunderstorms moving northeast from northern Missouri are expected to continue moving across central Illinois through early afternoon. The northern half of the threat area over central to northern IL is where a low level warm front centered near 850 mb drifts north, with focused warm and moisture advection combining with frontal convergence and 850-700 mb moisture fluxes to produce ascent. Since the axis of instability is forecast to remain over northern to central Missouri, redevelopment of cells is expected as temperatures rise in the warm sector and instability increases with time. The 14z RAP indicates potential for mixed layer CAPE values to increase to 2000-3000 j/kg early this afternoon over east central Missouri. The precipitable water values are estimated to increase to 2-2.25 inches in the 14z run of the RAP this morning from northeast Missouri across central Illinois. A closed 850-700 mb low moving across northern Missouri provides focus for lift in the area of greatest moisture, along with pre-frontal convergence east of a quasi stationary surface front near the Iowa/Illinois border and forming cold front in northeast Missouri. With moist, convergent flow centered near 850 mb, convection should develop in the higher precipitable water axis. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be likely given the high available moisture in east central Missouri. The high res models from the 12z NAM Conus Nest, 00z NSSL WRF, 13-14z HRRR, experimental HRRR, and 12z WRF ARW/ARW member 2 forecast clusters of 1-3 inches of rain by 21z, with isolated maxima to 5 inches. Flash flood guidance in 2-3 inches of rain in 3 hours, so flash flooding will be focused on the more persistent clusters of storms. The activity has been developing and moving a little more quickly to the east northeast than most of the guidance. The 06-12z Canadian regional GEM has captured the faster east progression better than the WRF ARW/NMMB/Experimental HRRR. Also, these models may be depicting heavier rain too far north into the area of less instability in southeast Iowa. Petersen ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX...SGF... ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 610 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN GEORGIA FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA EASTERN TENNESSEE * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY EVENING FROM 610 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...MULTIPLE, LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES AND SEVERE HAIL, BEFORE WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING.

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 455 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2020 TNC159-252215- /O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-200425T2215Z/ SMITH TN- 455 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY... AT 454 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40 AROUND 7 MILES WEST OF GORDONSVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

TDS edit: to add update 51 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY... AT 450 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40 NORTHEAST OF WATERTOWN, OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARTHAGE, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.