janetjanet998

overnight event deep south DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 AM CDT THU APR 16 2020 VALID 191200Z - 241200Z ..DISCUSSION MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY FROM TX SUNDAY/D4 MORNING TO GA BY 12Z MONDAY/D5. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE RED RIVER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THE LOW, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES, WITH UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS LIKELY INTO CENTRAL MS, AL, AND GA, WITH LOW 70S F ALONG THE COAST. MUCAPE TO AT LEAST 2000 J/KG IS LIKELY BY 18Z FROM TX INTO AL, WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -10 TO -12 C. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM RELATIVELY EARLY OVER EAST TX, WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE INITIALLY, WITH AN EVENTUAL MCS LIKELY. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. MEANWHILE TO THE EAST, WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WELL AHEAD OF THE MCS ACROSS MS, AL, GA, PRODUCING A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG WITH HAIL. THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK IN TERMS OF COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE AN MCS TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW AS IT QUICKLY MOVES ALONG THE EAST-WEST INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS LA, MS, AL AND INTO GA. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IS PRESENT IN THE MODELS, SUPPORTING THE NOTION OF A WELL-DEFINED MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE SRH WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG INITIALLY, IT SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 00Z, WITH ENHANCED WIND AND/OR TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE CORRIDOR OF MAXIMUM THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. FOR D5/MONDAY, THERE MAY BE A SMALL AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER FAR EASTERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER, MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM MOVES, THEREFORE PREDICTABILITY ISSUES WILL PRECLUDE AN AREA.

Severe weather possible again this Sunday 12 Euro most aggressive with a 1004 low in NW Texas at 12z and 995 mb in SC/GA at 12z Monday another event possible mid next week (gfs, CMC) as more southern jet energy moving in

mini-sups seem to be developing over South central PA SE of that line and north of the other one in MD

mini-sups seem to be developing over South central PA SE of that line and north of the other one in MD

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1207 PM EDT MON APR 13 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN BALTIMORE CITY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... NORTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... SOUTHWESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 1230 PM EDT. * AT 1207 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COLUMBIA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO.

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM EDT MON APR 13 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE MARYLAND NEW JERSEY CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN VIRGINIA EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1130 AM UNTIL 600 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY AND A COUPLE TORNADIC STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

Italy ..not good..being stubborn 619 new deaths and 4694 new cases the most in a week model had it at 281 deaths for today

just saw this Cook county Jail is the nations "hotspot" with 448 cases, with Statesville #7 https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1248738712323751942/photo/1

new update in corrected some what the errors I talked about , peak too high but slope after peak decline too steep added about 1400 more deaths 61,545 but Italy update slope will be way way off still https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy

ouch MI 205 new deaths with 1279 new cases IL 1465/ 68

Here is the model the WH likes to use https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america 60,000 deaths .....down from 120K the issue I see with it is that the slope may be too steep after the peak with decreasing deaths per day plus no deaths after June 15th and only 60 total June 1-14 you can see this error in Italy ...which served as some of the original data input for the model https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy Italy projection for 4-9 was 384 actual 570 (plus almost 4000 new cases...)

Kathy Griffin @kathygriffin · 32m Brutal. “The FDNY reports 241 New Yorkers dying at home Sunday — more than the number of confirmed #COVID19 deaths that occurred citywide that day. On Monday night, the city reported 266 new deaths, suggesting the possibility of a 40% undercount of #coronavirus-related deaths.”

looks like 1237 new cases in IL 73 new deaths

Last Tuesday also had a big spike after a decline/flat weekend .. 550ish to 900ish weekend backlog processed on Monday? Similar trend in Europe

Michigan with another bad day 1749 new cases 118 new deaths US daily death tally now at 1522 and counting

just like Italy and Spain

oh man ISDH: 11 dead from COVID-19 at Madison County nursing home https://www.wishtv.com/news/medical/isdh-11-dead-from-covid-19-at-madison-county-nursing-home/

The Illinois Department of Public Health announced Saturday there are 899 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 31 additional deaths.

although it was very obvious from the start for those paying attention China was lying....many casual observers likely thought it was just like SARS only a little worse...( I have been paying very close attention and started daily threads at another forum about this since late Jan) check out these numbers Last 3 days USA 88,631 cases 3329 deaths Last 3 months CHINA 81,639 cases 3326 deaths China has over 4 times the population of the USA

warm humid weather will stop the virus? Corpses Lie For Days As Ecuador Struggles To Keep Up With COVID-19 Deaths Ecuador is one of the smallest countries in South America but it is dealing with one of the region's worst outbreaks of COVID-19, with more than 3,100 identified infections and 120 deaths. The epicenter of the country's outbreak is the Pacific port city of Guayaquil, where bodies are lying in the streets. As a result, the bodies of people who have died in their homes due to COVID-19 and other illnesses often lie for days, wrapped in bed sheets and plastic and decomposing in the tropical heat as relatives watch over them. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/03/826675439/corpses-lie-for-days-as-ecuador-struggles-to-keep-up-with-covid-19-deaths

not sure if that is the final total..they have several updates a day

SPRINGFIELD – The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today announced 1,209 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 53 additional deaths.

I hear ya if you have time a graph of IL, MI, OH would be cool for both cases and deaths since they are all pretty close in population and are in this sub forum I saw one earlier on twitter and was going to post it here but can't find it....it shows the spike in IL and MO and the flat curve in OH not sure what data set you are using but here is a good one ..it even has the total number of tests (state daily 4pm) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18oVRrHj3c183mHmq3m89_163yuYltLNlOmPerQ18E8w/htmlview?usp=sharing#

perhaps....he was very aggressive despite the relatively low numbers

the Y-axis should be deaths per 10,000 people or something....98% of people are comparing raw numbers .....Italy has 1/5 the population of the USA deaths per 1,000,000 people Italy 218 Spain 201 UK 35 USA 15 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/