janetjanet998

so far OH and been doing better then IL and MI it could be that there isn't one HUGE population center (ie Chicago. Detroit) and therefor OH is less dense in any urban center(has more metros rather then one huge one) but OH also cancelled the primary and MI and IL did not

IL MAY not be in that bad of shape compared to some locations 488 new cases (19% increase)which is a drop from yesterday. ..yet almost 5000 more tests then then yesterday...(30% increase) also about a 10% positive rate..much lower then NY time will tell if this trend continues

after the first wave this morning, latest RAP and HRRR have the training more south into AL..missing the TN valley

crest 33.88 at Oakdale 1) 42.30 ft on 03/23/1929 (2) 38.71 ft on 12/23/1990 (3) 38.70 ft on 05/28/1973 (4) 38.70 ft on 03/23/1991 (5) 34.20 ft on 12/30/1969 (6) 34.10 ft on 04/04/1977 (7) 33.00 ft on 02/13/1948

XCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1057 AM EST WED FEB 05 2020 DAY 1 VALID 16Z WED FEB 05 2020 - 12Z THU FEB 06 2020 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TO EASTERN TENNESSEE... 1600 UTC UPDATE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS UPGRADED TO MODERATE OVER FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TO EASTERN TENNESSEE. THE 1200 UTC ARW AND NMMB TRENDED HEAVIER FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. STREAM FLOWS AS PER THE NATIONAL WATER MODEL ARE HIGH ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH HI RES CONSENSUS FOR 2-4"+ OF RAIN ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD 1200 UTC THURSDAY. IN AREAS OF TRAINING...HOURLY TOTALS OF 1-1.5"+ POSSIBLE. MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0034 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1201 PM EST WED FEB 05 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MS...NORTHERN AL...SOUTH-CENTRAL & EASTERN TN...EXTREME NW GA... CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 051700Z - 052230Z SUMMARY...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CURRENTLY TRAINING THROUGH SATURATED GROUNDS MAY POSE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS, IN ADVANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING FLASH FLOODING RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING. DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW VA ACROSS CENTRAL TN INTO FAR NE MS, WHERE A WEAK SURFACE INFLECTION IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE OVER E AR INTO W TN, WITHIN A SMALL WEDGE OF REDUCED UPPER-LEVEL FLOW/INCREASED DIFFLUENCE IN CENTRAL TN, SUPPORTS THIS WAVE LIFTING NORTH AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS E MS/AL AND GA. AS SUCH INCREASED FLUX MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS ENHANCED SHOWERS FROM SE TN ACROSS N AL, SUPPORTING GREATER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASED CLOUD TOP COOLING NOTED IN GOES-E 10.3UM, WITH TOPS COOLING BELOW -65C ACROSS NW AL AND SE TN ATTM. LOW TO MID-60S TDS AND SOME WEAK FILTERED INSOLATION THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAS HELPED TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THIS AREA RECENTLY WITH MLCAPES NOSING ABOVE 500 J/KG INTO N AL WITH GRADIENT UP/OVER 1000 J/KG BUILDING FROM THE SW. THIS IS IN COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT ALSO INCREASED THETA-E AIR WITH TDS EVEN UP TO 70 ACROSS CENTRAL MS ATTM. CURRENTLY, THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS FROM NW AL INTO SE TN ARE CAPABLE OF 1-1.25"/HR RATES WITH ISOLATED RATES UP TO 1.5"/HR WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MEAN STEERING FLOW SHOWS DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO SUPPORT TRAINING, ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH A SLOW NORTHWARD TREND/PROPAGATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIFTING NORTHWARD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE, PERHAPS LIMITING BEST/IDEAL TRAINING A BIT. STILL, GIVEN LAST 24HR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA, PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...LOWERED FFG VALUES AND SATURATED SOILS EXIST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED/NEARLY COMPLETE HYDROPHOBIC RUN-OFF OF THESE 1-2" TOTALS. AS SUCH, THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS N AL AND S-CENT/SE TN. STILL, REGARDLESS OF FLOODING WITH THESE CELLS, THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER SATURATE THE GROUNDS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. STRONGER HEIGHT-FALLS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER POSITIVE TILT FULL-LATITUDE SYNOPTIC TROF WILL SUPPORT INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMIC ASCENT AND DPVA TO OVER-WASH THE AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT FURTHER UPSTREAM/BACKBUILDING REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE INFLECTION IN N MS, WITH SOUTHWARD EXPANSION AFTER DARK. STILL, GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE WAVE, ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE/THETA-E FLUX...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG TOWARD 19Z, ALLOWING FOR STRONGER/BROADER CONVECTIVE CORES. THESE CORES WILL CROSS N MS/N AL INTO TN LATER THIS EVENING INCREASING THE PROBABILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE BEING COMPROMISED CURRENTLY (IF NOT EXCEEDED ALREADY BY 20Z)

the start of a 2020 redux? Both the 12z Euro and 18z GFS have huge amounts 8+ inches over TN over the next 360 hours..GFS 14 in a dumping the next 2 days..a decent break but then very active and soil moisture is currently already high (70-80 percentile)

5 inch contours back on 7 day click for this mornings update The MS river at Baton Rouge, without the rain factored in, crest 44 feet .... top 5

Expected Rainfall Amounts Thursday Night through Sunday Afternoon. Total rainfall amounts will generally range from around 2.5 inches to around 3.5 inches. These expected rainfall amounts may have an affect on area rivers. These expected rainfall amounts are preliminary and subject to change.

lake cumberland 749.65 feet down .95 or .04/hr (inflow increased form rain slowed the fall) if the lake falls 1.2 ft per day we will be at 746 at 10z friday near the start of the "wet period" Center hill dam (the other big pool) also still very full and the rains have also slowed its fall its at 670.6 ft , it peaked at 678 or so..the top of the spillway is 785 on Feb 18th it was at 635 so it is still 35 feet higher then 3 weeks ago and only 15 feet from the top of the spillway (or secondary overflow)

Lake Cumberland at this time is back down to the old record high it fell 1.38 ft 24 hours ending at 5am..or .058/hr assuming a 1.5 foot drop per day the lake will be at 744.37 at 11z friday ..near the start of the wet period..the also seem to be SLOWLY backing down the outflow in baby steps..now 57,100 down from 59,800 looks like a general 1/2 to inch over most of TN today heavier south of the TVA watershed

12z NAM shifted south ..still hits E TN go0d but not Cumberland so much at 5am lake cumberland 753.25 down down 1.35 ft or .056/hr past 24 hours odds are the southern solutions will pan out...

yep..nice "dry" spell yesterdays rains missed the cumberland watershed but not TN river........ HSV : HUNTSVILLE AIRPORT : 1.12 MSL : MUSCLE SHOALS ARPT : 0.91 KCHA .48 TVS .25 lake Cumberloand at 5am down 1 foot the past 24 hours or .042/hr 754.6 at 5am

still building a wall near/under that tower...locals are saying truck after truck of rocks still coming in today .I wonder if the are prepping it for even higher releases

Cumberland at 5am 755.61 down .65 feet or .027/hr the past 24 hours some light rain today weekend system may slow/stall fall models continue to hint at more active set up 9-10 days

Tennessee Valley Authority ‏ Verified account @TVAnews 3h3 hours ago More River Update: We are increasing releases out of tributary dams to recover flood storage in preparation for the next rain event, so you can expect to see above normal river flows below those dams. (1-3) Further downstream on Kentucky Lake, we continue to work with the Army Corps of Engineers to control releases out of Kentucky Dam because of flooding on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. Water levels on Kentucky Lake could rise as much as eight feet above summer pool. (3-3)

new EURO looks pumped and north.........?

they are going to do step 1 today..the most common...open Bonnet Carré Spillway above New orleans step two would be to divert flow at Red river landing above Baton Rouge ..The red river..( the one in Tx and Ok) used to flow into the MS river at that point....but now is diverted south into the Gulf...since the MS river is at a higher elevation they can divert alot of water there... the third and most extreme is to blow the levee on the west bank right below Cairo IL...this floods much of the low lying area of the boothill of MO..they only have done this 2 times..last in 2011..and i think once in the 1930's..it can only be used once a season as the bowl will fill up also see this article they said 1.250 million cfs per second is the flow that triggers step one..way down south as of right now a huge 478,000 cfs is coming out of Barkley (cumberland)and Kentucky Lake(TN basin) alone..the lakes are rising well above summers pools becasue inflow is still higher...Barkley is releasing 136,000 cfs into the OH/MS Cumberland is 59,000 of that.. in a perfect would Cumberland would be releasing ZERO..and Barkley and Kentucky much lower NEW ORLEANS (WWL-TV) — For the third time in four years the Bonnet Carré Spillway will be opened Wednesday to the projected flow of water down the Mississippi River, according to the Army Corps of Engineers. According to the Corps of Engineers web site, this will be the first time that the spillway has been opened in consecutive years. The Corps anticipates opening approximately 38 bays Wednesday, possibly increasing it to 200 bays over time. The Spillway is used to divert water flow from the Mississippi River and send it toward Lake Pontchartrain when the water flow gets too high. Boyett says that projected flows indicate an opening in the middle of next week, likely Thursday, February 28. The ‘trigger’ for an opening is a projected river flow of 1.25 million cubic feet per second, which is what the New Orleans river levees are designed to handle. Anything above that level means the spillway is opened. The spillway has opened several times in recent years, including: 2008, 2011, 2016 and 2018. https://www.klfy.com/news/louisiana/update-corps-to-open-bonnet-carre-spillway-wednesday/1808660331

Cumberland at 5am 756.26 down .26 (or .01/hr) past 24 hours the OHIO and Mississippi rivers are now moderate to major flooding in many places...on the lower MS..may not crest for weeks... that is without any more rain factored in.. the NWS flood forecast for the mid MS river came out yesterday....lots of snow in the upper basin..soil moisture and stream flow high..major flooding likley going to be trouble for a long time now there are 3 steps they will take to lower impacts if they have to protect places like New Orleans and Baton Rouge but more on those later got to get these lake levels down ASAP.. need a drought .the incoming rain won't help

I hope you get your snow..but your area obviously doesn't need the precip this 10 day period is the "dry" time ... models hint at a wetter SW flow returning in the 10-12 day range

sounds like that are going to keep the flow at 58,700 for at least two weeks Phil Pendleton ‏ Verified account @philtvnews 17m17 minutes ago More Cumberland County Emergency Mgt. Director says they’ve having to take supplies to some folks by boat who are trapped in their homes because the rising Cumberland River. And it will be that way for 2 weeks because of the water being taken out of Lake Cumberland. More at 4-6 @WKYT ------------ example of the issue: if the lake drops and average of .06 an hour for 2 weeks that only about 736 feet (-20 feet)

TN river tributary reservoirs total storage ..above summer pool https://lakeinfo.tva.gov/htbin/genplots?guidecurve+79

just skimmed over them..thanks...will review more later I did see that the old outflow record in 1974 was when the lake wasn't that high...perhaps they had different rules back then and never let the lake get as high as today? I know on lake Travis (austin tx), last fall there was a a huge flood....many people on local forums complained that they let the lake get to high in the summer for recreational use these days.....

WKYM 101.7 ‏ @wkym1017 2m2 minutes ago More The level of Lake Cumberland peaked at 756.52 feet above sea level this morning. That’s about five feet above the previous high level set in 1984. The US Army Corps of Engineers continues its record setting release of water through the dam at 58,740 CF per second. 0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes Reply Retweet Like

yes as far as I know..... the Corps have a poor history of being honest about the dangers of the Dam....this is why some people question them muddy water near the power plant was a major concern in the past because that was a sign of seepage.....hopefully all the muddy water i pointed out the other day was just from the bank eroding in a you tube video(see below) it said concerns in the past included muddy water in the tailwater, sinkholes near the power plant, a wet stop on the opposite end of the earth part (way down from the dam, and river bank being unstable (not sure what that means) The had a similar issue at center hill dam too which they recently repaired 'Unprecedented' water levels at Lake Cumberland raise residents' fears the dam will fail eavy rains and flooding that have pushed Kentucky’s Lake Cumberland water levels to a record high are creating the biggest test yet for a dam that was considered highly vulnerable to failure before a $594 million repair was completed five years ago. The rain-swollen lake on Monday forced the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to release a record 58,730 cubic feet of water per second from the Wolf Creek Dam, causing some flooding along the Cumberland River in low-lying areas downstream. So far the dam shows no signs of problems, said Corps spokesman Bill Peoples Residents worry because in 2007, the Corps lowered water levels in Lake Cumberland amid fears that a weakened Wolf Creek Dam might fail and cause perilous flooding as far away as Nashville. The nearly mile-long earthen dam, built atop cavern- and fissure-riddled limestone, was shored up during seven years of construction. “These lake levels are unprecedented,” Peoples said. “We’re confident that barrier wall is doing the job it was designed to do.” https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/2019/02/26/kentucky-lake-cumberland-high-water-levels-from-flooding-rain/2983258002/ go to 1:22 mark here to see problem areas