janetjanet998

BOTH LOT and ILX mentioning possible could air funnels and/or landspouts in the updated morning discussion

cloudy and damp with light rain the next two days will prevent any real soil moisture recovery ..then only a few days of true drying out before the possible weekend rains and wetter pattern

you may have more incoming today....some clearing in the NE quad of the low..with cold 500MB temps HRRR breaks out heavier showers and storms later this afternoon with 1/2 to 1 inch in spots...where ever they form under the low and are more stationary then any bands around it it may be just SW of you though...all depends on the wobbling low

Looks like a Top 5 Crest at some locations on the Des Plaines river including a Top 2 at Riverside at 9.98 now Historic Crests (1) 11.28 ft on 04/18/2013 (2) 9.90 ft on 08/15/1987

ORD .24 0-1z 7.95 month .31 from record,,,but back edge almost there will far just short with the main slug but any residual precip the next couple of days will do it MDW 3.42 far the day as of 01z 3.93 total will hit 4 inch mark

several reports of 3-3.6 inches of Rain in 2 hours in Will county ending at 6pm

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 636 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2020 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0310 PM TORNADO 2 NW MILLINGTON 41.58N 88.63W 05/17/2020 LA SALLE IL PUBLIC PHOTOS AND VIDEO POSTED TO SOCIAL MEDIA SHOW BRIEF TORNADO NORTHWEST OF MILLINGTON. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 637 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2020 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0526 PM TORNADO 2 SSE COAL CITY 41.26N 88.28W 05/17/2020 GRUNDY IL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE BRAIDWOOD EMA REPORTED BRIEF TORNADO THAT CROSSED REED ROAD WEST OF I-55. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

1.28 23-0z 7.71 month ,55 from record

looks like that band had a quicker east push though at ORD though ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 648 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA... * UNTIL 1015 PM CDT. * AT 645 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF TORRENTIAL RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THIS BAND OF RAIN IS PRODUCING ONE TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. THIS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING OF ROADWAYS, STREAMS, AND CREEKS.

they have missed the trains until now... only .17 more 18z-22z so 6.19 but heavier rain now edit: .24 22-23z so 6.43 now.. 1.83 from record

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 432 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... NORTH CENTRAL FORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN IROQUOIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... EASTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 1030 PM CDT SUNDAY. * AT 429 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN THE PAST THREE HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF WILL AND COOK COUNTY. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

maybe a small slow near bloomington where that kink is .....that is holding up the train over Will county area 19z HRRR still has 7 inch bullseye there also models trending more moist Monday/Tuesday mostly light rain but moderate showers also possible

.33 more 12-18z at ORD 6.02 month 2.24 needed ....with luck with training could easily break it but right now in between trains

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2020 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1131 AM CDT ...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING--SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT--AND A RISK FOR A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... LATE-MORNING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY DEPICTS A REMARKABLY WOUND- UP SHORTWAVE SPIRALING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL IOWA WITH A CLEAR WING OF INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL MASS DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE DIVERGING MID-LEVEL WARM CONVEYOR BELTS. ASSOCIATED ROBUST WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING JET FORCING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION HAS RESULTED IN GENERALLY ONE HALF TO 1.5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE LAST EVENING, WITH SOME LOCALIZED 2+ AMOUNTS NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF FORD AND IROQUOIS COUNTIES. THIS PRECIPITATION LIKELY HAS NEARLY OR COMPLETELY SATURATED THE SUB- SURFACE AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT'S FLASH FLOOD EVENT, AND THIS IS CORROBORATED BY REPORTS OF RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING ON ROADWAYS IN THE LIGHT STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW APPROACHES OUR LONGITUDE THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT TO SEE A QUICK UPTICK IN UPPER JET SUPPORT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEVELOPING COUPLED JET AS NOTED ON REGIONAL CROSS SECTIONS. THE ATTENDANT AGEOSTROPHIC MASS RESPONSE IS EXTREMELY DEEP, THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE, INDICATING ROBUST VERTICAL MOTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. ILX'S MORNING SOUNDING SAMPLED 1.63" PWATS WHICH HAVE LIKELY ONLY INCREASED SINCE THEN. INSTABILITY REMAINS ONE OF THE WILD CARDS TODAY, WITH A LACK OF HIGHER MLCAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY LIMITING THE TRULY EXTREME RAINFALL RATES. THAT SAID, WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 11 KFT, NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE NEAR-RECORD OR RECORD TERRITORY PWATS, SUPPORTING EFFICIENT WARM RAIN AND COLLISION-COALESCENCE PROCESSES. HAVE ALREADY SEEN THIS MANIFESTED IN INNOCUOUS-LOOKING RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO UNDER 1 MILE INDICATIVE OF LOTS OF SMALL DROPS. BASED ON RECENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND ADDITIONAL GLM FLASHES SHOWING UP, EXPECT A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES INTO THE AFTERNOON. MEAN CLOUD-BEARING WINDS (850-300MB) MAY REMAIN ORIENTED WITH JUST A HINT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TODAY WHICH *SHOULD* HELP KEEP SOME FORWARD PROGRESSION OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS GOING. THAT SAID, THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A SHORT PERIOD OVER SOILS THAT CAN'T HANDLE ANY ADDITIONAL WATER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. WOULD LIKE TO THINK THAT SOME OF THE 7"+ AMOUNTS BEING FORECAST BY RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF MORE APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY. THAT SAID, WE'VE GROWN CONCERNED ENOUGH IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT THAT WE EARLIER COORDINATED A "MODERATE" EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK UPGRADE WITH THE WPC. THANKS WPC, MKX, IWX, ILX, AND DVN FOR THE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING. THE MAIN WINDOW OF CONCERN HERE IS ROUGHLY 2 - 8 PM OR SO. NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAVE BEEN MADE THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE DEPENDING ON THE WESTERN BOUNDS OF A NARROW SWATH OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS, A WESTWARD EXPANSION TO INCLUDE LEE, OGLE, WINNEBAGO, AND BOONE COUNTIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT. REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL: THE RISK FOR A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL GAINS IN AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY ARE REALIZED. THESE ARE ALWAYS HARD EVENTS TO MESSAGE AND FORECAST SINCE IT SEEMS LIKE EITHER THESE LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS SEEM EXTREMELY FICKLE WHEN IT COMES TO INGESTING MORE BUOYANT NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY. ILX'S MORNING SOUNDING SAMPLED 38 KTS OF 0-2 KM BULK SHEAR AND 212 M2/S2 SRH IN THAT LAYER, WITH SIMILAR VALUES EXPECTED INTO PARTS OF OUR AREA WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT GIVEN 0-3 KM MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST TO PUSH NORTH OF 100 J/KG GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH TURNING. CURRENTLY THINK THE MAIN THREAT AREA MAY REMAIN RELEGATED TO NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80 AND ROUGHLY EAST OF A PONTIAC TO MORRIS LINE DURING THE ROUGHLY 2 PM - 7 PM TIMEFRAME. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN TRANSMITTED. CARLAW

ESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0211 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1148 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...ILLINOIS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 171545Z - 172145Z SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF CONCERNS AND FLASH FLOODING. DISCUSSION...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY WHICH IS FOSTERING A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS ILLINOIS. AT 1500Z, AN ASSOCIATED TRIPLE-POINT LOW CENTER IS NOTED JUST NORTHWEST OF MOLINE, IL WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY, AND WITH A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL IN. THROUGH THE MORNING THERE HAVE BEEN BANDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LARGER-SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND AT LEAST A MODEST NOSE OF INSTABILITY, WHICH FOR THE TIME BEING IS LARGER UNIMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 500 J/KG. HOWEVER, OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING FARTHER NORTH, AND DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLING UP ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN HEAVIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. FACILITATING THIS WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KTS AND STRENGTHENING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. DYNAMICALLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, THERE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OF A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHICH SHOULD WILL GREATLY ENHANCE VERTICAL VELOCITIES GIVEN THE ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE PATTERN OVERHEAD. SO, THE COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION, AND INCLUDING SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS WELL. PWS ARE GENERALLY 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THESE VALUES SHOULD COME UP A BIT MORE THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS, AND THUS THE RAINFALL RATES SHOULD TEND TO COME UP A BIT MORE AS WELL. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVECTIVE RAINFALL RATES TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES/HR, WITH THE LATEST 12Z HREF SUITE AND HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 21Z OF LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS, AND ONGOING RUNOFF PROBLEMS, THESE ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHORT-TERM RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR THE MORE URBANIZED CORRIDORS, INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ORRISON

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1203 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2020 DAY 1 VALID 12Z SUN MAY 17 2020 - 12Z MON MAY 18 2020 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA... ..16Z UPDATE THE AFTERNOON IS SHAPING UP TO PRODUCE AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTH TO NORTH BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS, EVENTUALLY MARCHING EASTWARD INTO INDIANA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST GIVEN SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS / REDUCED HEATING, THE WIND FIELDS ARE IDEAL FOR TRAINING, AND ACTIVITY WILL BE SUSTAINED DURING THE APPROACH OF AN IMPRESSIVE CLOSED LOW PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, PRODUCING FOCUSED 40-50 METER 12-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE 12Z SUITE OF HI-RES MODELS IS UNANIMOUS IN PRODUCING SWATHS OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN, INCLUDING ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA, WITH POTENTIAL FOR GREATER AMOUNTS WHERE TRAINING BECOMES MOST EFFICIENT. THERE IS NOT MUCH SPATIAL SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE EITHER, MAKING THIS A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE DAY 1 FORECAST. THIS REGION HAS SEEN MANY HEAVY RAIN EVENTS THE PAST TWO WEEKS, WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING 2 TO 3 TIMES NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THAT PERIOD (AND THIS INCLUDES CHICAGO METRO). THE 06Z HREF PRODUCED 50-60% ODDS OF INCH PER HOUR RAIN RATES THIS AFTERNOON, AND WE SUSPECT THOSE PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE WHEN THE 12Z HREF PROBS ARE AVAILABLE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES WERE DOWN TO ONE INCH PER ONE HOUR OR 1.50 INCH PER 3 HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS. THUS, IN COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICES WE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK. SOME OF THE FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, WITH VERY WET SOIL, COULD LEAD TO HIGHER-END EVENTS SUCH AS WATER RESCUES AND WATER INVADING HOMES. ADDITIONAL FORECAST DETAILS ARE IN MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSIONS SUCH AS #0211 ISSUED LATE THIS MORNING.

.56 on the 16th. 5.08 then .61 06-12z 5.69 2.57 to go...with several hours of moderate rain incoming then if they get trained later in any storms they record may fall today

00z HRRR a little moist for NE IL edit: 00z NAM products concur

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 610 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2020 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN GEORGIA FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA EASTERN TENNESSEE * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY EVENING FROM 610 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...MULTIPLE, LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES AND SEVERE HAIL, BEFORE WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING.

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 455 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2020 TNC159-252215- /O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-200425T2215Z/ SMITH TN- 455 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY... AT 454 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40 AROUND 7 MILES WEST OF GORDONSVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

TDS edit: to add update 51 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY... AT 450 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40 NORTHEAST OF WATERTOWN, OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARTHAGE, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 446 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL SMITH COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... EAST CENTRAL WILSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 515 PM CDT. * AT 446 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WATERTOWN, OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARTHAGE, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2020 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN TN/SOUTHEASTERN KY INTO WESTERN NC... ..SUMMARY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ..TN/KY TODAY TO NC THROUGH TONIGHT A MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE OVER SOUTHEAST MO THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE OH RIVER TODAY, AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. RESIDUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 56-60 F WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO TN/KY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE. SURFACE HEATING WILL BE SOMEWHAT MUTED BY LINGERING CLOUDS, BUT GRADUAL BREAKS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE CYCLONE. THOUGH BUOYANCY WILL BE RATHER MODEST, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. STORMS THAT MATURE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN TN COULD PERSIST INTO WESTERN NC BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST AND OVERNIGHT, SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER BY 12Z, AND AS AN UPSTREAM SPEED MAX OVER THE PLAINS ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS. GRADUAL AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS FL. AS THE LOW LEVELS WARM/MOISTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT, WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY CENTERS ON FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STORM COVERAGE WHERE LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION IS MOST PROBABLE (CLOSER TO THE COAST), SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN NC.

possible sleeper event TN/KY today , lots of spin near stacked low and cold 500mb temps