janetjanet998

ouch MI 205 new deaths with 1279 new cases IL 1465/ 68

Here is the model the WH likes to use https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america 60,000 deaths .....down from 120K the issue I see with it is that the slope may be too steep after the peak with decreasing deaths per day plus no deaths after June 15th and only 60 total June 1-14 you can see this error in Italy ...which served as some of the original data input for the model https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy Italy projection for 4-9 was 384 actual 570 (plus almost 4000 new cases...)

Kathy Griffin @kathygriffin · 32m Brutal. “The FDNY reports 241 New Yorkers dying at home Sunday — more than the number of confirmed #COVID19 deaths that occurred citywide that day. On Monday night, the city reported 266 new deaths, suggesting the possibility of a 40% undercount of #coronavirus-related deaths.”

looks like 1237 new cases in IL 73 new deaths

Last Tuesday also had a big spike after a decline/flat weekend .. 550ish to 900ish weekend backlog processed on Monday? Similar trend in Europe

Michigan with another bad day 1749 new cases 118 new deaths US daily death tally now at 1522 and counting

just like Italy and Spain

oh man ISDH: 11 dead from COVID-19 at Madison County nursing home https://www.wishtv.com/news/medical/isdh-11-dead-from-covid-19-at-madison-county-nursing-home/

The Illinois Department of Public Health announced Saturday there are 899 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 31 additional deaths.

although it was very obvious from the start for those paying attention China was lying....many casual observers likely thought it was just like SARS only a little worse...( I have been paying very close attention and started daily threads at another forum about this since late Jan) check out these numbers Last 3 days USA 88,631 cases 3329 deaths Last 3 months CHINA 81,639 cases 3326 deaths China has over 4 times the population of the USA

warm humid weather will stop the virus? Corpses Lie For Days As Ecuador Struggles To Keep Up With COVID-19 Deaths Ecuador is one of the smallest countries in South America but it is dealing with one of the region's worst outbreaks of COVID-19, with more than 3,100 identified infections and 120 deaths. The epicenter of the country's outbreak is the Pacific port city of Guayaquil, where bodies are lying in the streets. As a result, the bodies of people who have died in their homes due to COVID-19 and other illnesses often lie for days, wrapped in bed sheets and plastic and decomposing in the tropical heat as relatives watch over them. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/03/826675439/corpses-lie-for-days-as-ecuador-struggles-to-keep-up-with-covid-19-deaths

not sure if that is the final total..they have several updates a day

SPRINGFIELD – The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today announced 1,209 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 53 additional deaths.

I hear ya if you have time a graph of IL, MI, OH would be cool for both cases and deaths since they are all pretty close in population and are in this sub forum I saw one earlier on twitter and was going to post it here but can't find it....it shows the spike in IL and MO and the flat curve in OH not sure what data set you are using but here is a good one ..it even has the total number of tests (state daily 4pm) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18oVRrHj3c183mHmq3m89_163yuYltLNlOmPerQ18E8w/htmlview?usp=sharing#

perhaps....he was very aggressive despite the relatively low numbers

the Y-axis should be deaths per 10,000 people or something....98% of people are comparing raw numbers .....Italy has 1/5 the population of the USA deaths per 1,000,000 people Italy 218 Spain 201 UK 35 USA 15 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

so far OH and been doing better then IL and MI it could be that there isn't one HUGE population center (ie Chicago. Detroit) and therefor OH is less dense in any urban center(has more metros rather then one huge one) but OH also cancelled the primary and MI and IL did not

IL MAY not be in that bad of shape compared to some locations 488 new cases (19% increase)which is a drop from yesterday. ..yet almost 5000 more tests then then yesterday...(30% increase) also about a 10% positive rate..much lower then NY time will tell if this trend continues

after the first wave this morning, latest RAP and HRRR have the training more south into AL..missing the TN valley

crest 33.88 at Oakdale 1) 42.30 ft on 03/23/1929 (2) 38.71 ft on 12/23/1990 (3) 38.70 ft on 05/28/1973 (4) 38.70 ft on 03/23/1991 (5) 34.20 ft on 12/30/1969 (6) 34.10 ft on 04/04/1977 (7) 33.00 ft on 02/13/1948

XCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1057 AM EST WED FEB 05 2020 DAY 1 VALID 16Z WED FEB 05 2020 - 12Z THU FEB 06 2020 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TO EASTERN TENNESSEE... 1600 UTC UPDATE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS UPGRADED TO MODERATE OVER FAR NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TO EASTERN TENNESSEE. THE 1200 UTC ARW AND NMMB TRENDED HEAVIER FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. STREAM FLOWS AS PER THE NATIONAL WATER MODEL ARE HIGH ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH HI RES CONSENSUS FOR 2-4"+ OF RAIN ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD 1200 UTC THURSDAY. IN AREAS OF TRAINING...HOURLY TOTALS OF 1-1.5"+ POSSIBLE. MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0034 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1201 PM EST WED FEB 05 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MS...NORTHERN AL...SOUTH-CENTRAL & EASTERN TN...EXTREME NW GA... CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 051700Z - 052230Z SUMMARY...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CURRENTLY TRAINING THROUGH SATURATED GROUNDS MAY POSE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS, IN ADVANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING FLASH FLOODING RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING. DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW VA ACROSS CENTRAL TN INTO FAR NE MS, WHERE A WEAK SURFACE INFLECTION IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE OVER E AR INTO W TN, WITHIN A SMALL WEDGE OF REDUCED UPPER-LEVEL FLOW/INCREASED DIFFLUENCE IN CENTRAL TN, SUPPORTS THIS WAVE LIFTING NORTH AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS E MS/AL AND GA. AS SUCH INCREASED FLUX MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS ENHANCED SHOWERS FROM SE TN ACROSS N AL, SUPPORTING GREATER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASED CLOUD TOP COOLING NOTED IN GOES-E 10.3UM, WITH TOPS COOLING BELOW -65C ACROSS NW AL AND SE TN ATTM. LOW TO MID-60S TDS AND SOME WEAK FILTERED INSOLATION THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAS HELPED TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THIS AREA RECENTLY WITH MLCAPES NOSING ABOVE 500 J/KG INTO N AL WITH GRADIENT UP/OVER 1000 J/KG BUILDING FROM THE SW. THIS IS IN COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT ALSO INCREASED THETA-E AIR WITH TDS EVEN UP TO 70 ACROSS CENTRAL MS ATTM. CURRENTLY, THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS FROM NW AL INTO SE TN ARE CAPABLE OF 1-1.25"/HR RATES WITH ISOLATED RATES UP TO 1.5"/HR WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. MEAN STEERING FLOW SHOWS DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO SUPPORT TRAINING, ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH A SLOW NORTHWARD TREND/PROPAGATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIFTING NORTHWARD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE, PERHAPS LIMITING BEST/IDEAL TRAINING A BIT. STILL, GIVEN LAST 24HR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA, PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...LOWERED FFG VALUES AND SATURATED SOILS EXIST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED/NEARLY COMPLETE HYDROPHOBIC RUN-OFF OF THESE 1-2" TOTALS. AS SUCH, THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS N AL AND S-CENT/SE TN. STILL, REGARDLESS OF FLOODING WITH THESE CELLS, THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER SATURATE THE GROUNDS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. STRONGER HEIGHT-FALLS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER POSITIVE TILT FULL-LATITUDE SYNOPTIC TROF WILL SUPPORT INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMIC ASCENT AND DPVA TO OVER-WASH THE AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT FURTHER UPSTREAM/BACKBUILDING REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE INFLECTION IN N MS, WITH SOUTHWARD EXPANSION AFTER DARK. STILL, GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE WAVE, ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE/THETA-E FLUX...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG TOWARD 19Z, ALLOWING FOR STRONGER/BROADER CONVECTIVE CORES. THESE CORES WILL CROSS N MS/N AL INTO TN LATER THIS EVENING INCREASING THE PROBABILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE BEING COMPROMISED CURRENTLY (IF NOT EXCEEDED ALREADY BY 20Z)

the start of a 2020 redux? Both the 12z Euro and 18z GFS have huge amounts 8+ inches over TN over the next 360 hours..GFS 14 in a dumping the next 2 days..a decent break but then very active and soil moisture is currently already high (70-80 percentile)

5 inch contours back on 7 day click for this mornings update The MS river at Baton Rouge, without the rain factored in, crest 44 feet .... top 5

Expected Rainfall Amounts Thursday Night through Sunday Afternoon. Total rainfall amounts will generally range from around 2.5 inches to around 3.5 inches. These expected rainfall amounts may have an affect on area rivers. These expected rainfall amounts are preliminary and subject to change.