Frog Town

Ok, Ok, I know it's the 84 hour Nam, but if you extrapolate it out a bit, I think it's further North with the low this week for Turkey day. Thoughts?

Remember with the system this past week when the GFS trended towards the Euro bombing out over Detroit which continued trending west over towards Wisconsin. Just wait for it. This will become a northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin crusher soon enough.

This pattern is turning out very December 2000ish.. That was a crazy cold and snowy December that quickly turned into a mild January/Feb. I believe we had 15+" on the ground for for Christmas that year in Toledo.

Pattern looks pretty sweet for the OV late next week. Always worry about too much suppression in these set ups, but not sure about the SE Ridge flexing in these set ups. Would love to see a spread the wealth system but it's a weird time of year to get something like that..

Not often you see a dry slot and warm tongue with this orientation!!

It's back and 12Z was a juicy run.

0Z and 12Z Euro's are almost carbon copy's, weird.

Must be the new upgrade! I'll take it.

More like whatever drug the GFS is on. 11 days out...lock it in.

If I'm not mistaken, the following Winter was epic, I believe. I know 76'-77' was one of the coldest, but I can't remember is 75'-76' was as cold.

Hmmm, so logically, if we are in a cool phase but warm, then we will cool when we head into a warm phase. Sounds pretty straight forward. In all seriousness though, a few years back, maybe 2019-20 or '18/'19, all the local Mets sounded the alarm that things were lining up for a very cold and snowy Winter. I think it was end of November/early December which is a pretty safe time to make a Winter call. I've never seen Toledo Mets put it all on the line like this and it was pretty unanimous. Which ever winter it was, it ended being a bust. All this to say, I'm not overly concerned with the warm signals we are getting. If anything, it brings comfort knowing that I won't be disappointed.

Looking at the pacific currently, November is gonna be chilly. Almost a complete replication of November 2013. Not saying it's gonna stick like 2013-2014, but that sure would be nice.

I know it's early but it's hard to ignore how similar the pacific is currently, along with the recurving typhoons, to the fall of 2013....Just sayin.

It's starting to get very frustrating as we enter another neutral ENSO during the wrong time of the year. Here in the Midwest we've had a cooler than normal Summer only for it to flip during the fall/Winter and average above average with La Nina. It's been since the 2013-2014 that this has been the case. Here's your shitty Winter Forecast, early and for free.

~2" here in Toledo..so far

Same! Really indescribable and surreal.

Yup

Storms and Cold back on the docket for the last week in March with potential big dog stuff. Curious if it will stick, or just smoke and mirrors...

I remember reading and researching climate change/global warming as a kid. The one thing that has stuck with me was the talk of drastic/wild temperature swings much like we are seeing. Is it really even a debate anymore?? I think the wild extremists that talked of oceans rising 10ft and ridiculous temps muddled the waters and created a bunch of skeptics and conspiracy theorists. Which are now grown adults with very loud Social Media speakers.. Probably the wrong thread but Winter's is over for the foreseeable future.

Was it late '16 or '17 that had the late Feb really warm spell. I thought it was '16

Late February is looking very late '98ish, another very strong Nino year.

Quick and efficient transfer I guess. Does seem kind of odd as that is our bench mark..

Considering starting a thread...JK. But this would be amazing.

Same

See you guys mid Fall 2024. Been real but now I gotta focus on my taxes and other less interesting things.