Frog Town

That's a fun can to kick down the road until it's February or it ends up on the other side of the planet..

Please wake me up from this nightmare.... Of course, if I was this age in the mid 20th century, we'd have better Winters but I probably would've been the first one storming the beaches of Normandy. I guess I'll take the shitty winters and count my blessings.

At what point do we start buying the warmth coming mid to late month. Was kind of hoping for a pattern reload towards the holidays with at least winter like weather but now the ensembles are caving.

Models trying to handle the quick pattern changes form Cold-to warm-to Cold again. Kind of have to let them go for a bit.

You need to get to the highlands from Boyne down to Gaylord/Grayling. You typically don't get much right on the coastal areas like Harbor Springs Charlevoix...

We just need to be patient until Mid December when the mean trough repositions itself to benefit our sub forum. We've waited like 7 years(2017 was last time we had this) so two weeks of a clipper pattern could be worse. Common people!

It's November and it's cold! Adderall anyone??

Exactly! We get Canada good and we don't need to count on a cross polar flow or crazy blocking to get cold enough weather for snow.

Here's the set we need come mid December! Big'ol banana high to the north. This would be a crusher!

While we may not get much snow, yet. It's nice to see a pattern that can sustain cold, especially early. The past 4 years it's been a roller coaster whiplash.

I would agree fellow Toledo'n. Although I'm just a skirt north of you in Sylvania.

Ok, Ok, I know it's the 84 hour Nam, but if you extrapolate it out a bit, I think it's further North with the low this week for Turkey day. Thoughts?

Remember with the system this past week when the GFS trended towards the Euro bombing out over Detroit which continued trending west over towards Wisconsin. Just wait for it. This will become a northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin crusher soon enough.

This pattern is turning out very December 2000ish.. That was a crazy cold and snowy December that quickly turned into a mild January/Feb. I believe we had 15+" on the ground for for Christmas that year in Toledo.

Pattern looks pretty sweet for the OV late next week. Always worry about too much suppression in these set ups, but not sure about the SE Ridge flexing in these set ups. Would love to see a spread the wealth system but it's a weird time of year to get something like that..

Not often you see a dry slot and warm tongue with this orientation!!

It's back and 12Z was a juicy run.

0Z and 12Z Euro's are almost carbon copy's, weird.

Must be the new upgrade! I'll take it.

More like whatever drug the GFS is on. 11 days out...lock it in.

If I'm not mistaken, the following Winter was epic, I believe. I know 76'-77' was one of the coldest, but I can't remember is 75'-76' was as cold.

Hmmm, so logically, if we are in a cool phase but warm, then we will cool when we head into a warm phase. Sounds pretty straight forward. In all seriousness though, a few years back, maybe 2019-20 or '18/'19, all the local Mets sounded the alarm that things were lining up for a very cold and snowy Winter. I think it was end of November/early December which is a pretty safe time to make a Winter call. I've never seen Toledo Mets put it all on the line like this and it was pretty unanimous. Which ever winter it was, it ended being a bust. All this to say, I'm not overly concerned with the warm signals we are getting. If anything, it brings comfort knowing that I won't be disappointed.

Looking at the pacific currently, November is gonna be chilly. Almost a complete replication of November 2013. Not saying it's gonna stick like 2013-2014, but that sure would be nice.

I know it's early but it's hard to ignore how similar the pacific is currently, along with the recurving typhoons, to the fall of 2013....Just sayin.

It's starting to get very frustrating as we enter another neutral ENSO during the wrong time of the year. Here in the Midwest we've had a cooler than normal Summer only for it to flip during the fall/Winter and average above average with La Nina. It's been since the 2013-2014 that this has been the case. Here's your shitty Winter Forecast, early and for free.